Israel has long envisioned a military attack on Iran’s nuclear enrichment sites in an attempt to halt what it considers an existential threat. But any such military strike would risk igniting a major conflict that could draw in the United States.
Many in the Middle East are now wondering whether that moment has arrived, as tensions between the two countries rise.
On Wednesday, The New York Times reported that officials in the United States and Europe believed that Israel seemed to be gearing up for a potential strike, even as Trump administration is seeking a deal with Tehran to curb its nuclear program. The following day, the International Atomic Energy Agency declared that Iran was not complying with its nuclear nonproliferation obligations — the first such censure in two decades.
It is unclear how extensive an attack Israel is considering. But the United States has withdrawn diplomats from the region over concerns about the attack and any Iranian retaliation.
Many experts say Israel would struggle to destroy Iran’s main nuclear facilities without American military support. And it is unclear if the heightened tensions were the result of saber-rattling as both sides seek leverage in the negotiations.
Here’s what we know.
Why might Israel attack now?
Iran’s nuclear program has advanced considerably over the past decade, analysts say. Iran is on the brink of being able to manufacture enough nuclear material to fuel 10 nuclear weapons, although producing a usable bomb would likely take many more months.
But Iran has been weakened since Hamas launched the Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel that ignited the war in Gaza. Hamas and Hezbollah, both of which are backed by Iran, have been decimated in the war with Israel.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel has privately argued that Iran’s vulnerability will not last long, meaning that Israel has a limited window in which to launch an attack.
“One way or the other, Iran will not have nuclear weapons,” Mr. Netanyahu said in an speech in April.
Iran had wielded the threat of a formidable response by Hezbollah in Lebanon as a deterrent against Israeli attack. But after Hezbollah attacked Israel in solidarity with Hamas, Israel routed the group, methodically eliminating its leadership and killing thousands of its fighters.
Israeli strikes against Iran’s air defenses last year weakened their capabilities, allowing Israeli fighter jets to more safely launch a new mass attack, according to officials and analysts. If Israel waits too long, Iran might restore them, analysts said.
What has Trump said?
President Trump has previously warned Mr. Netanyahu against attacking Iran, increasing tensions between the two leaders.
During his first term, Mr. Trump pulled the United States out of a 2015 nuclear deal with Iran that was signed by Barack Obama, deriding the agreement as “one-sided.” This time around, he seems eager to avoid being sucked into a large-scale conflict in the Middle East.
Mr. Trump has also sought a new deal with Iran to curtail its nuclear program. Steve Witkoff, Mr. Trump’s Middle East envoy, has held talks with Iranian officials in Oman and Rome.
Israeli officials had originally developed proposals to attack Iranian nuclear sites in May, hoping to set back Tehran’s ability to develop a nuclear weapon by a year or more. In April, Mr. Trump told Israel that the United States would not support an attack.
In late May, Mr. Trump said he had again rebuffed Mr. Netanyahu’s suggestion to attack Iran’s enrichment sites because the United States and Iran were in negotiations. “I told him this would be inappropriate to do right now because we’re very close to a solution,” he said.
But it is unclear whether the United States and Iran can reach a nuclear agreement soon. Mr. Trump has publicly insisted that Iran will have no enrichment capabilities under the deal, which Tehran is unlikely to accept. “I’m getting more and more less confident about it,” he told The New York Post in a podcast on Wednesday. “They seem to be delaying and I think that’s a shame.”
On Sunday, Mr. Witkoff is expected to return to Oman, which has been mediating the talks with Iran, for another round of negotiations.
Why are Israel and Iran at odds?
Iran and Israel have been enemies for decades. Since the rise of the Islamic Republic at the end of the 1970s, Iran’s rulers have pledged to destroy Israel. They have supported a web of militia groups, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, to pressure Israel on multiple fronts.
The two countries have fought a yearslong shadow war. Israel has bombarded sites in Syria and assassinated Iranian nuclear scientists. Iran has smuggled arms and funding to its proxies on Israel’s borders.
But over the past year, the two countries have also openly attacked each other twice. In April 2024, Israel assassinated Iranian security chiefs in an airstrike in Syria, prompting Iran to fire hundreds of drones and missiles at Israel. Israel later struck back at Iran.
Several months later, Iran fired more than 150 missiles at Israel in response to the killing of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, in Lebanon, and the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’s leader, in Tehran. Israel retaliated by bombarding Iran’s aerial defenses.
Could Israel go it alone?
Israel possesses sophisticated military capabilities. But military analysts say destroying Iran’s nuclear program would likely be tricky, even for one of the strongest powers in the Middle East, and would probably require American military support.
Experts say targeting all Iran’s nuclear sites — some of which are in reinforced facilities dug into mountains — would require top-notch bunker-busting munitions. The United States has refused Israeli requests to provide them in the past.
Previous Israeli plans to attack Iran have relied heavily on U.S. backing. Israel also hopes U.S. forces will defend Israel from Iranian retaliation.
Aaron Boxerman is a Times reporter covering Israel and Gaza. He is based in Jerusalem.
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