The Florida Panthers and Edmonton Oilers are both at a crossroads entering Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final on Thursday night at Amerant Bank Arena in Sunrise, Fla.
The Panthers, who nearly fell behind 0-2 in Edmonton before winning Game 2 in double overtime, can put the Oilers in a 3-1 hole if they win tonight at home.
Edmonton won three games in a row vs. Florida in last year’s Stanley Cup Final before losing Game 7 on the road. Still, that’s (obviously) not a feat they want to have to replicate in this series.
But with a road win tonight, Connor McDavid and Co. would likely head back to Edmonton as favorites to win the series thanks to the fact that a hypothetical Game 7 would take place in Alberta at Rogers Place.
Stanley Cup Final Game 4 Betting Odds
The odds below include the money line and the puck line. The puck line is like a spread bet, but the standard puck line is typically set at -1.5/+1.5, with the prices weighted to reflect who’s favored.
How to Watch Oilers vs. Panthers Game 4
- Puck drop: 8 p.m. ET
- Channel: TNT/truTV/Max
Stanley Cup Final Series Winner Odds (as of June 12)
- DraftKings: EDM -260; FLA +215
- FanDuel: EDM -265; FLA +215
- bet365: EDM -250; FLA +205
NHL Conn Smythe Trophy Winner Odds: Sam Bennett Favored
This seems like a good place to pat ourselves on the back. We ecommended Bennett as a high-upside Conn Smythe Trophy bet not only at +600 before Game 3, but also prior to this series, which he entered with a league-leading 10 playoff goals.
Before Game 1, we called him the “best value bet” on the Florida side to win this award at then-+3000 odds at DraftKings.
Now, Bennett is the odds-on Conn Smythe Trophy favorite. His goal in Game 3 gave him four in this series.
It also extended his lead on the list of NHL playoff goal scorers to four. With 14, he has a substantial cushion on Oilers star Leon Draisaitl, who is second with 10 playoff goals.
Best Oilers vs. Panthers Game 4 Player Prop
C. McDavid Over 3.5 Shots On Goal (-105 at bet365) — 1 unit
The biggest star in the NHL is coming off of one of his worst performances of this postseason, but we like him to bounce back in a pivotal Game 4 that his team can’t afford to lose.
Before we elaborate on why we like McDavid to pile up the shots tonight, let’s dive into his numbers in Edmonton’s Game 3 meltdown.
For just the third time in 19 playoff games this year, he did not record a single point. McDavid’s plus/minus of -1 also marked only his fourth negative plus/minus of the playoffs (he has been +1 or better in 10/19, with a plus/minus of 0 in five games).
He finished Game 3 with playoff-lows in both shots on goal (2) and total shot attempts (2) in 24 shifts.
The defensively stout Panthers have done a remarkable job preventing McDavid, who entered the Stanley Cup Final with six goals in 16 playoff games, from scoring, but Game 3 was the first time they prevented him from even threatening goalie Sergei Bobrovsky.
After getting 4 shots on goal (on 7 total shot attempts) in 31:12 of time on ice in Game 1 and 7 SOG (on 9 TSA) in 35:07 of TOI, McDavid registered a paltry 2 SOG on 2 TSA.
The law of averages tells us that a superstar like McDavid — who has had at least 4 SOG in 10 of 19 playoff games (and boasts a playoff average of 3.79 SOG on 6.6 TSA) — is due for a busy night, especially under these circumstances.
Oilers vs. Panthers Game 4 Pick, Best Bet
The Oilers have a ton of questions to answer after unraveling in Game 3. Edmonton trailed Monday’s game 2-0 entering the second period after a series of undisciplined errors gave the Panthers four first-period power plays.
By game’s end, the Oilers had accumulated 85 penalty minutes in an ugly loss that ended with goalie Stuart Skinner on the bench.
He was pulled in the third period after allowing five goals on 23 shots, but Edmonton coach Kris Knoblauch said Thursday that Skinner will be back in net for Game 4, according to ESPN’s Greg Wyshynski.
While Knoblauch revealed he is sticking with Skinner, he is making a number of lineup changes elsewhere. Forward Connor Brown is replacing Corey Perry on the first line alongside McDavid and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, according to The Athletic’s Daniel Nugent-Bowman.
We shouldn’t rule out the Oilers rallying with their backs against the wall — especially after they rallied from 3-0 down vs. Florida in the 2024 Stanley Cup Final to force Game 7 — but I’m still not willing to bet against the Panthers at home.
This is a tough one to call, and I expect tonight’s game to be close, but to me, the safest play is to take the Panthers to go over their team total of 3.5 goals.
Oilers vs. Panthers Game 4 Best Bets:
- Florida Over 3.5 Goals (+114 at FanDuel) — 1 unit
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