Welcome to Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief.
The highlights this week: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi gears up for a trip to Canada to attend the G-7 summit, U.S. President Donald Trump’s nominee for the State Department’s top South Asia post appears before the Senate for a confirmation hearing, and Bangladeshi interim leader Muhammad Yunus visits London.
Modi Goes to Canada
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke by phone last Friday, with the Indian leader invited to attend the G-7 leaders’ summit in Alberta next week.
Modi said that he looks forward to meeting Carney at the event, which will mark the first visit by an Indian prime minister to Canada since April 2015, when Modi—then in the first year of his first term—traveled there and met then-Prime Minister Stephen Harper. Modi has attended five previous G-7 leaders’ summits, dating to 2019.
Modi’s trip is a major development for India-Canada ties, which have been fraught since the previous Canadian government accused India of involvement in the assassination of a Sikh separatist in British Columbia in 2023. And seen strictly through the lens of bilateral relations, the G-7 invitation may seem questionable.
To be sure, tensions have abated in recent weeks, mainly because Carney’s predecessor, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whom New Delhi blamed specifically for the strain in ties, is no longer in power. Last month, Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar had a call with his Canadian counterpart. The two sides are reportedly considering restoring their high commissioners.
But the two sides remain far apart on the issue most responsible for tensions: Canada accuses India of transnational repression against Sikhs on its soil, while New Delhi counters that Ottawa doesn’t do enough to address the threat posed by Sikh separatists who support the creation of an independent state of Khalistan.
With little direct, high-level engagement between the two sides in recent years, there is a risk that an encounter between Carney and Modi will be awkward. Not to mention that Canadian authorities will likely need to deal with the headache of pro-Khalistan activists staging protests against Modi during his visit.
However, seen from a broader geopolitical context, it’s hard to imagine Canada not inviting Modi. Though India is not a G-7 member, it is the world’s most populous nation, its largest democracy, and its fastest-growing major economy (and fourth-largest economy overall). All G-7 members except Canada have close ties with New Delhi.
Canada’s stated priorities for the summit—strengthening energy security, facilitating digital transitions, investing in growth—all align with India’s own goals and strengths. One of his agenda points—countering foreign interference—could prove awkward, given that Ottawa previously accused New Delhi of conducting election interference.
Carney’s invitation to Modi also reflects that the G-7’s members defer to India’s global clout. Many Western states put their various concerns about India—whether about its friendship with Russia or democratic backsliding—on hold to ensure continued close engagement.
In addition to Canada, two G-7 countries—the United States and the United Kingdom—are members of the Five Eyes intelligence alliance that worry about Indian transnational repression risks on their soil. They still likely backed Carney’s decision to invite Modi.
Modi’s visit, assuming it leads to a meeting with Carney on the sidelines, can be a confidence-building measure that positions the two sides to take further steps to reset relations. The countries have strong incentives to step up bilateral trade—which has remained robust despite tensions—amid U.S. tariff policies that have targeted both India and Canada.
The Khalistan issue certainly remains a sore spot, and it could flare anew if Sikh activists try to spoil Modi’s visit with protests. But if bilateral relations improve in other areas, it will be easier to manage.
Ultimately, Modi’s trip to Canada can pave the way for another possible encounter with Carney at the G-20 summit in South Africa in November. That will be another forum where India’s global influence will be on display, and its presence welcomed.
What We’re Following
Kapur’s U.S. Senate confirmation hearing. U.S. President Donald Trump’s nominee for the top South Asia post at the State Department, S. Paul Kapur, had his Senate confirmation hearing on Tuesday. The previous assistant secretary of state for South and Central Asian affairs was Donald Lu, a senior diplomat. Kapur is an academic who studies South Asian security.
Kapur is a critic of Pakistan and champion of partnership with India, like many senior Trump administration officials. His scholarship has focused on the dangers of Pakistan’s sponsorship of Islamist militants. At the Senate hearing, his prepared statement reflected his strong support for U.S.-India partnership, though his remarks included a call for cooperation with Pakistan.
Kapur’s confirmation hearing comes at a critical moment: The subcontinent is tense after last month’s India-Pakistan conflict, and Washington and New Delhi are engaged in trade talks intended to lower U.S. tariffs on India. Comments that Trump made about the Kashmir issue and Washington’s role in last month’s cease-fire presented bumps in the road for the relationship.
Additionally, a few key capitals in South Asia—including New Delhi, Dhaka, and Islamabad—don’t currently have formal U.S. ambassadors in place since Trump took office in January.
Yunus in London. Muhammad Yunus, the head of Bangladesh’s interim government, is in the United Kingdom this week for meetings with top British officials, including Prime Minister Keir Starmer. What stands out about the trip are the two prominent Bangladesh diaspora members that Yunus may meet in London.
One is Tarique Rahman, the son of former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Khaleda Zia and interim leader of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)—the main rival to the Awami League party and former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who resigned under pressure last August. The other is Tulip Siddiq, a British member of Parliament and Hasina’s niece.
Both meetings could have considerable implications for Bangladeshi politics; Yunus is scheduled to meet Rahman on Friday, but it is unclear if he will meet Siddiq.
Rahman, based in London since 2008, is a top contender to be the BNP’s candidate for prime minister in elections that will likely take place by mid-2026. But many observers are perplexed as to why he hasn’t returned to Bangladesh since Hasina’s ouster. A meeting with Yunus might touch on plans for his return—and on the reported differences between Yunus and the BNP on the election timeline.
Meanwhile, Siddiq wants to discuss what she describes as a “misunderstanding” after Bangladeshi authorities alleged this year that she may have secured large amounts of land in Bangladesh through corrupt means. (She denies the accusation, which prompted her to resign from her positions as economic secretary to the Treasury and City minister.)
If Yunus agrees to meet Siddiq, it could be interpreted as a conciliatory step to Hasina and her party. The interim government has so far taken an uncompromisingly hard line against the Awami League.
Under the Radar
The delegation that visited Washington from Islamabad last week to push its case after the recent India-Pakistan conflict was busy, with many meetings with lawmakers, scholars, media, and the Pakistani diaspora. But it didn’t meet with the Trump administration aside from an engagement with Allison Hooker, the U.S. undersecretary of state for political affairs.
Another less prominent Pakistani visitor was in town around the same time: Bilal Bin Saqib, Pakistan’s minister of state for crypto and blockchain. (A Pakistani minister of state is junior to a minister.) Saqib visited the White House and met Robert “Bo” Hines, the executive director of Trump’s Council on Digital Assets.
It is the only known case of a visiting Pakistani official meeting a senior White House figure during Trump’s second term. Islamabad is working toward legalizing cryptocurrency, and Saqib is CEO of Pakistan’s Crypto Council, established in March. The same month, Saqib linked Pakistan’s sudden push on cryptocurrency to Trump’s prioritization of cryptocurrency as a policy issue.
This push appears to have paid off: Foreign guests that Pakistan described as Trump’s “advisors for digital assets” (most of them in the crypto business) have visited Islamabad to meet the finance minister. A U.S. company with ties to Trump’s sons signed a deal with Pakistan’s Crypto Council in April.
It’s unclear where all this will go, but for now Pakistan appears to have successfully used tactics to get the Trump administration’s attention.
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Regional Voices
In the Daily Mirror, professor G.R.A. Kumara argues that Sri Lanka is squandering its potential to use scientific research to strengthen development. “Sri Lanka, with its rich natural resources and educated population, has tremendous potential,” he writes. “Yet, despite decades of progress, we remain behind in converting research into practical, scalable solutions that can uplift the lives of our citizens.”
In Prothom Alo, editor Sohrab Hassan highlights the divide between Dhaka and the BNP on Bangladesh’s election timeline. “The interim government believes that elections should take place only after emerging from the prevailing ‘war-like’ situation,” he writes. “[The] BNP, on the other hand, argues that the longer it takes, the worse the situation will become.”
In the Print, former Indian Army chief M.M. Naravane warns that India must better protect all of its territory—not just its borders—from drone attacks. “We are surrounded by inimical countries,” he writes. “[O]ur vital installations are no more than a few hundred km from any border, making the institution of 360-degree preventive and precautionary measures all the more urgent.”
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