Israel appears to be preparing to launch an attack soon on Iran, according to officials in the United States and Europe, a step that could further inflame the Middle East and derail or delay efforts by the Trump administration to broker a deal to cut off Iran’s path to building a nuclear bomb.
The concern about a potential Israeli strike and the prospect of retaliation by Iran led the United States on Wednesday to withdraw diplomats from Iraq and authorize the voluntary departure of U.S. military family members from the Middle East.
It is unclear how extensive an attack Israel might be preparing. But the rising tensions come after months in which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel has pressed President Trump to seize on what Israel sees as a moment of Iranian vulnerability to a strike.
Mr. Trump waved off another plan by Israel several months ago to attack Iran, insisting that he wanted a chance to negotiate a deal with Tehran that would choke off Iran’s ability to produce more nuclear fuel for a bomb. Two weeks ago, Mr. Trump said he had warned Mr. Netanyahu about launching a strike while U.S. negotiations with Iran were underway.
It is not clear how much effort Mr. Trump made to block Mr. Netanyahu again this time, but the president has appeared less optimistic in recent days about the prospects for a diplomatic settlement after Iran’s supreme leader rejected an administration proposal that would have effectively phased out Iran’s ability to enrich uranium on its soil. Mr. Netanyahu has walked up to bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities in the past, only to back off at the last minute.
Word of the U.S. decisions to withdraw personnel from the region, along with a warning from Britain about new threats to Middle East commercial shipping, came hours after Mr. Trump told The New York Post in a podcast released on Wednesday that he had grown “less confident” about the prospects for a deal with Iran that would limit its ability to develop nuclear weapons.
American and Iranian negotiators have been planning to meet on Sunday for another round of talks, although Mr. Trump told reporters on Monday that Iran had adopted an “unacceptable” negotiating position. As of Wednesday, Mr. Trump’s envoy to the talks, Steve Witkoff, was still planning to attend the negotiations in Oman, officials said.
Asked about the reason for the departures of U.S. personnel and dependents from the region as he arrived at the Kennedy Center in Washington for a Wednesday evening performance of “Les Misérables,” Mr. Trump told reporters, “Well, you’re going to have to figure that one out yourself.”
The British warning came from a maritime trade agency that monitors Middle East shipping and that said in a public advisory that it had “been made aware of increased tensions within the region which could lead to an escalation of military activity having a direct impact on mariners.” The advisory urged commercial vessels transiting the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz to use heightened caution.
Iranian military and government officials have already met to discuss their response to a potential Israeli strike, according to a senior Iranian official.
The official said that Tehran had devised a response plan that would involve an immediate counterstrike on Israel with hundreds of ballistic missiles. In October 2024, a major Iranian missile assault against Israel related to the war in Gaza inflicted limited damage, however, in part because of U.S. assistance in intercepting the missiles.
Mr. Trump spoke by phone on Monday with Mr. Netanyahu, but the White House disclosed few details about the conversation. Mr. Trump had met on Sunday evening at Camp David with his national security team.
Iran’s defense minister, Gen. Aziz Nasirzadeh, raised alarms on Wednesday with a warning that, in the event of a conflict following failed nuclear talks, the United States would suffer heavy losses. “America will have to leave the region because all its military bases are within our reach and we will, without any consideration, target them in the host countries,” he told reporters.
Iranian officials also balked at remarks on Tuesday by Gen. Michael E. Kurilla, the head of Central Command. General Kurilla testified before a House committee that he had presented Mr. Trump and Mr. Hegseth “a wide range of options” for a potential strike against Iran. General Kurilla had been scheduled to testify again on Thursday before the Senate Armed Services Committee, but his testimony was postponed without explanation.
Iran’s mission to the U.N. denounced General Kurilla’s comments in a Wednesday social media post as “militarism” that “fuels instability.”
The tough talk came amid a week of meetings in Vienna by the International Atomic Energy Agency’s board of governors. The United States, Britain, France and Germany have submitted a resolution to the agency that would censure Iran for rapidly advancing its nuclear program and violating other commitments under a 2015 nuclear deal brokered with those countries, along with China and Russia. The board is expected to vote on the censure resolution on Thursday morning.
Censure could be grounds for the U.N. Security Council to restore, or “snap back,” heavy economic sanctions on Tehran that were lifted as part of the 2015 deal, which was struck by the Obama administration. Mr. Trump unilaterally withdrew the United States from that agreement in 2018, a move that Iran says gave it license to abandon its commitments to limit its nuclear activity. The deal’s European parties insist that it remains enforceable through restored sanctions.
Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said on social media on Wednesday that censure “will compel Iran to react STRONGLY.”
The State Department did not provide details on how many personnel would be removed from Iraq, or why. The Associated Press reported on Wednesday that nonessential U.S. personnel would be withdrawn from Baghdad, and that nonessential personnel and family members of diplomats had been authorized to depart from U.S. embassies in Bahrain and Kuwait.
The military dependents authorized to depart the Middle East are largely from Navy and Marine families in Bahrain, home to a major U.S. naval base, a senior Navy official said.
Iran’s atomic program has progressed dramatically since Mr. Trump abandoned the 2015 deal. Analysts say that Iran is now on the brink of being able to manufacture enough nuclear material to fuel 10 nuclear weapons.
Constructing a workable device, if Iran chose to pursue that option, could take several more months. But many top Israeli officials already consider Iran’s progress to be unacceptable and have openly threatened military action against its nuclear facilities.
Many Israeli officials believe they have a golden opportunity to solve a decades-long problem. Israel has recently decimated Hezbollah and Hamas, Iranian proxy groups that Tehran has long relied on as a deterrent to Israeli action. And Israeli airstrikes last year severely reduced Iran’s air defense systems.
Some analysts warn that Iran has been restoring those defenses, making Israeli action against Iran’s nuclear program riskier by the week. It is also unclear whether Israel can inflict decisive damage on Iran’s nuclear program without U.S. military assistance.
U.S. oil prices climbed above $68 a barrel on Wednesday afternoon, their highest level since early April, when Mr. Trump placed tariffs on nearly all U.S. trading partners. Fighting in the region could disrupt oil supplies, as could tougher American sanctions on Iran.
The U.S. aircraft carrier Carl Vinson has been in the Arabian Sea for several weeks. More than 60 aircraft are aboard the Vinson, including advanced F-35 stealth strike fighters.
The senior Navy official said there were currently no plans to change the carrier’s position in response to the developing situation.
The United States also has several dozen attack and fighter jets deployed in the Middle East. These aircraft were used extensively to defend Israel from Iranian strikes last year.
Rebecca Elliott contributed reporting from New York, and Javier C. Hernández from Washington.
Michael Crowley covers the State Department and U.S. foreign policy for The Times. He has reported from nearly three dozen countries and often travels with the secretary of state.
David E. Sanger covers the Trump administration and a range of national security issues. He has been a Times journalist for more than four decades and has written four books on foreign policy and national security challenges.
Farnaz Fassihi is the United Nations bureau chief for The Times, leading coverage of the organization, and also covers Iran and the shadow war between Iran and Israel. She is based in New York.
Eric Schmitt is a national security correspondent for The Times. He has reported on U.S. military affairs and counterterrorism for more than three decades.
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