If you’ve been betting on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s points props, you’re probably off to a profitable start to the NBA Finals.
But otherwise, the clash between two of the deepest teams in the league has yielded unpredictable results so far for prop bettors.
While bench players like OKC’s Aaron Wiggins (18 points in Game 2) and IND’s Bennedict Mathurin (14 points in Game 2) have exploded for big offensive nights, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams and the top co-stars alongside SGA and Tyrese Haliburton have been up-and-down.
Isaiah Hartenstein o7.5 Rebounds (+120 at FanDuel) — 1 unit
Despite starting both Games 1 and 2 on the bench, Hartenstein has remained a force on the glass for the Thunder.
In fact, he’s currently the slight favorite to lead the series in total rebounds, even though he’s played just 39 minutes total in this series. After pulling down a remarkable 9 rebounds in just 17 minutes in Game 1, Hartenstein snagged 8 more boards in Game 2 in 22 minutes.
Given that he posted a plus/minus of +17 while playing heavier minutes in the second game of this series, we should see plenty of Hartenstein tonight, even if Thunder coach Mark Daigneault sticks with a starting five that features Cason Wallace in place of Hartenstein.
It also helps the big man’s case for playing time, no matter how well Holmgren is playing for OKC, that the former Knick helps keep the Thunder offense on track even when he’s not scoring.
Case in point: after scoring 9 points in Game 1, Hartenstein finished with just 3 points in Game 2, but still made an offensive impact with 4 assists.
It’s admittedly risky to back a player whose role is a bit unclear. Hartenstein, however, might only need 20 minutes or so of action to cash this prop, as he is averaging a whopping 15.7 rebounds per 36 minutes in the Finals.
That makes him great value, especially if his effectiveness in Game 2 (both alongside Holmgren and as the only Thunder big on the court) translates to at least 20-25 minutes of playing time tonight.
Pascal Siakam u18.5 Points (+110 at FD) — 1 unit
Through two games, Siakam’s counting stats in this series (19 points, 10 rebounds in Game 1; 15 points, 7 rebounds in Game 2) don’t leave much to be desired.
We’ve got good reason to fade him tonight, though. Siakam has averaged 16.75 points per game on 21-for-51 FG shooting (41 percent) across four games vs. the Thunder this season.
This postseason, power forwards who do their damage inside have struggled against the Thunder, and I expect that to continue tonight and throughout this series. Denver’s Aaron Gordon, of course, had plenty of success vs. the Thunder, but he mostly burned them from deep.
In Games 1 and 2 of the Finals, Siakam was primarily defended by Jalen Williams, and he has struggled with that matchup. He scored just 5 points on 1-for-4 FG shooting in 23.7 partial possessions in Game 2, per NBA.com, and he had 1 point on 0-for-3 FG shooting in 23.7 partial possessions vs. Williams in Game 1.
It’s also instructive to look back at how well OKC defended Minnesota forward Julius Randle from inside the arc in the Western Conference Finals.
Randle shot just 18-for-37 (48.6 percent) on 2-pointers vs. OKC after torching both Golden State (63 percent 2-point shooting) and the Lakers (53 percent 2-point shooting) earlier this posteason.
Yes, Siakam and Randle go about creating their 2-pointers in different ways. Still, it’s notable that OKC — which has held Siakam to 15-for-33 shooting on 2-pointers and 8-for-18 from 3 in four games this year — has been as tough a matchup for the Pacers’ versatile forward as it was for Randle.
As long as the Thunder can keep Siakam — who made 5-of-7 3-pointers the first time these teams played this year, but is 3-for-11 in the last three OKC-IND matchups — from getting hot from deep, I expect him to go under this line tonight.
It will only be that much harder for Siakam to get going if the Thunder continue to prevent the Pacers from running (Indiana scored just 10 fast-break points in Game 1 and 9 in Game 2).
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