ATHENS — Greeks have plenty of reasons to be angry with their political masters. But many feel they’ve nowhere to turn.
A series of scandals from the past few years lingers: A deadly train crash and the way the government seemed to bungle its handling; spyware found on the phones of scores of politicians and journalists that was never really explained; suspected misappropriation of EU funds; accusations about the ruling New Democracy party’s financing.
Yet while disaffection is strong — witness the hundreds of thousands who turned up to protests across the country in February — little of it seems to be translating into votes for opposition parties. Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ New Democracy, despite everything, remains ahead in the polls. His party is riding out the political storms, holding steady at about 30 percent support, according POLITICO’s Poll of Polls, while 11 smaller parties flounder far below.
This year’s demonstrations were “by definition, an anti-government protest, but it was not eventually anti-government because there is no one in the opposition people can rely on,” said Despoina Koutsoumpa, an archaeologist and unionist and one of the organizers.
The protests were mainly designed to mark the anniversary of the 2023 Tempi train crash. With 57 deaths, it was the deadliest in Greek history and sparked allegations of mismanagement in government and top-level corruption. Like the other scandals blighting the country’s ruling class, it tested people’s faith in their nation’s judicial structures.
While Koutsoumpa belongs to the far-left Antarsya party, the protests didn’t take place in its name. Had that not been the case, she concedes, she wouldn’t have been able to mobilize so many people — more even than demonstrated during the debt crisis over a decade ago.
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For more polling data from across Europe visit POLITICO Poll of Polls.
“People spontaneously responded to a call from the victims’ relatives in just two days,” she said. “They would not have responded in the same way to political parties.”
So what’s going on? While the current political environment should be nourishing rivals from across the spectrum, no real challenger to Mitsotakis has appeared.
While some compare the situation to 2012, when the country’s two mainstream parties collapsed and the political map was redrawn, such a dramatic realignment looks unlikely at the moment.
Cover-ups and insecurity
The fallout from the rail crash triggered waves of anger that exceeded the shock and sadness from the accident itself. February protests across the country revealed that dismay over a range of issues — corruption, a lack of justice, the cost of living — is snowballing.
Poll after poll has revealed deep distrust of Greece’s political parties, judiciary and media. Regarding the rail crash investigation, almost three in four citizens believe “there is a government effort to cover up responsibilities.” The facts of the case alone ― that in a modern European country in 2023, two trains could have been allowed to run on the same line for 12 minutes until they collided, killing 57 people ― feed a sense of insecurity, people said.
“We have a political environment in flux, a whole system in transition,” said Costas Eleftheriou, an assistant professor at the Democritus University of Thrace and coordinator of political analysis at the ENA Institute for Alternative Policies, an Athens think tank. “The dominant party is destabilized while the opposition from the right or the left is completely fragmented. Political representatives are seen as part of the problem, and as long as this is the case, a large part of society doesn’t know what to vote for.”
What ails the state now resembles a laundry list. In the summer of 2022 a sprawling espionage drama erupted, with Predator spyware discovered on phones belonging to opposition leaders, ministers, military chiefs, journalists and businesspeople. Last year, judicial authorities cleared all state officials and state services of wrongdoing, while journalists pursuing the case have been prosecuted.
European prosecutors are investigating a massive farm fraud and have reported “attacks” and “discrimination” against their staff. Last month, Greece’s opposition parties demanded an investigation of the government’s ties to a politically connected communications company that they link to shadow financing and online propaganda for the ruling party.
But despite all this, New Democracy is still comfortably atop the party standings. If elections were held today, the center-right party would get around 29 percent, polls indicate, with the election winner needing around 38 percent of the vote to form a majority government. Support fluctuates, however: A month ago New Democracy was closer to 24 percent.
Second place is far more competitive. The main opposition party, the socialist Pasok, has overtaken the left-wing Syriza ― the party that former Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras led to power in 2015 following the debt crisis that saw the traditional parties implode.
Syriza and Pasok are both being challenged by the ultra-nationalist Greek Solution and the populist Course of Freedom, which appears to be consolidating support. The latter party, which barely managed to enter parliament in 2023, now presents itself as leading the fight for answers on the rail crash.
Its leader Zoe Konstantopoulou, who used to belong to Syriza, maintains a singular focus on the issue and is a lawyer for some of the families of the victims. Konstantopoulou is a magnet for disillusioned and unconventional voters, according to Angelos Seriatos, head of research firm Prorata.
Right and left fragmented
In last year’s European Parliament election, one in five Greeks voted for one of the country’s far-right parties, and polls signal they remain strong. Still, this political space remains divided. The parties are new and fragile, are staffed by people with prickly personalities, and have weak leadership.
“Support for the parties to the right of New Democracy is still fragmented,” said Petros Ioannidis, a political analyst for Aboutpeople, a Greek polling company, noting that the parties “base their appeal on [critical] language and [offer] no specific proposals for governance.”
But Prorata’s Seriatos said several factors were working in the far right’s favor — including the feeling that a large part of society is struggling to cope, as well as the favorable global mood following the election of U.S. President Donald Trump.
On the left, several politicians have called for the creation of a grand coalition that could compete on equal terms with New Democracy, emulating France’s New Popular Front. But the likelihood of cooperation between the left and the center left remains slim.
“What unites the left and center left is a front against New Democracy, but this alone is not capable of offering an alternative governance solution,” Ioannidis said.
For now, the left remains fragmented. Syriza defectors alone have already formed six parties.
Some are considering the possible return of former leader Tsipras, who led the party to power a decade ago before stepping down in 2023, though many think he carries too much baggage.
While Tsipras has stepped up his public appearances in recent months, officials in his office insist he won’t be making a comeback — at least before the next election.
Rivals to Mitsotakis
Despite leading in the polls, the government seems to know it rests on fragile foundations. Aiming to change the tone, it recently announced a number of financial support measures that have given it a temporary boost.
But internal party opposition is growing. Lists of people who could take over if Mitsotakis were ousted circulate frequently in the national press. His main challenger is Defense Minister Nikos Dendias, but Mitsotakis himself appears to prefer Deputy PM Kostis Hatzidakis. Other potential rivals include Finance Minister Kyriakos Pierrakakis and Health Minister Adonis Georgiadis, who comes from the ultra-nationalist Laos party.
But Mitsotakis has repeatedly said he will seek a third term.
The prime minister removed his predecessor from New Democracy, Antonis Samaras, who had frequently criticized the party’s leadership for being too centrist. But internal opposition is nevertheless forcing Mitsotakis to tilt to the right, while rumors abound that Samaras might be mulling a new party.
After former far-right activist Makis Voridis was named migration minister in a recent government reshuffle, tougher migration policies followed. Speaker of Parliament Konstantinos Tassoulas became Greek president, breaking a decades-long political tradition of nominating a figure from the opposition to draw broad support.
“Mitsotakis can no longer achieve what he managed to do up to 2023 ― balance between right-wing conservative and center-right liberal approaches,” Eleftheriou said. “All these issues that could be swept under the carpet are now surfacing ― quality of life and especially inflation, issues related to state welfare and public infrastructure, trust in institutions and especially the judiciary. There is a sense that the state is absent and cannot provide services to its citizens.”
With an election still likely two years away and everything still to play for — it perhaps wouldn’t take much for someone to harness the dissatisfaction and earn broad support.
“The question is whether the non-conservative political space in general can … convince people that things can be done differently and more fairly,” said Seriatos. “And stop pointing fingers at people for making bad choices.”
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