John Kampfner is a British author, broadcaster and commentator. His latest book “In Search of Berlin” is published by Atlantic. He is a regular POLITICO columnist.
“He’s a very good man to deal with. He is difficult, but he is a very great representative of Germany.”
Wannabe “macho bro” Chancellor Friedrich Merz beamed as U.S. President Donald Trump handed down his version of praise. The compliment could not have been more appreciated. Given that anything could have happened in the Oval Office — with many a humiliation already meted out to several world leaders — Merz emerged surprisingly unscathed. In fact, he did better than that: He acquitted himself as well as any visitor to MAGA HQ could.
Unlike French President Emmanuel Macron or British Prime Minister Keir Starmer — his two closest counterparts — he also avoided false pretense. He didn’t put his hand on Trump’s knee or whip out a royal letter. In fact, by comparison, his gift — a framed copy of Trump’s grandfather’s birth certificate — was a little lame. But it set an appropriate tone: restrained and impeccably polite, with the barest hint of a pushback on the vexed issue of America’s blithe disregard of Ukraine.
“Job done,” Merz will have said to himself as he settled back into his government jet. The German leader certainly hasn’t been dealt the greatest hand — at home or abroad — but he’s playing it surprisingly well. It’s also worth remembering he’s been in the job only a month.
In that time, Merz has embarked on a jet-setting charm offensive, and compared to the tenure of his uncharismatic predecessor Olaf Scholz, the difference couldn’t be more pronounced. But has turbo-charged Merz achieved anything concrete? And does his government have a tangible foreign policy?
So far, the German leader has improved relations with France, which were at a worrying low. He’s tried hard to bring the Brits back into the fold, and has made a beeline for Poland — although the far-right victory in last Sunday’s presidential election will likely set back any progress. He’s done the Nordics and attended the ceremonial roll call of Germany’s Lithuania brigade in Vilnius. He’s also struck up a good relationship with the ever-influential Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.
But Trump was the first big test. And while Merz’s approach has already paid dividends in terms of mood music in the German establishment, in concrete terms, it hasn’t.
This is because of the sad fact that not just Germans but the French and Brits, too, have become mere bit players in the two major ongoing conflicts: Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Gaza.
Merz already met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in person three times since taking office — in Kyiv, during a European leaders summit in Tirana and most recently in Berlin. However, he’s yet to deliver on the promise he made while in opposition: permitting the dispatch of German Taurus missiles. Instead, he’s gone down the French route of strategic ambiguity to avoid publicly detailing what arms are being sent.
And on the biggest question of all — persuading Trump to get Russian President Vladimir Putin to engage seriously in peace talks — neither Merz, Macron nor Starmer seem to be getting anywhere. They’re entirely beholden to the whims of a White House still curiously mesmerized by the Kremlin.
The biggest difference is in Berlin’s tone is that Merz has talked of a “strategic cultural shift in foreign and security policy,” transforming Germany from a “sleeping middle power” into a “leading middle power.”
Minister of Foreign Affairs Johann Wadephul was the first to talk openly about the “5 percent of GDP” figure for military spending — a massive increase from the present-day figure that’s just above 2 percent. Even though this number is only an aspiration, and includes 1.5 percent of what is termed “critical infrastructure” — which can mean pretty much anything — it’s still a step change. Trump himself has acknowledged that. But how quickly it will be reached, or if it will ever be reached, remains to be seen.
Meanwhile, structures of government are already being revamped in order to meet these new priorities. After years of procrastination, the Chancellery has established a National Security Council, with an overarching remit on all issues of security. And for the first time in decades, the Foreign Ministry is in the hands of Merz’s ruling party, the Christian Democrats.
Where Merz seems most confused, and where Germany continues to be paralyzed, however, is in its approach to the Middle East. Because of its Nazi history, Germany has made the survival of Israel a “reason of state.” And it was particularly struck when reminded that the Hamas terrorist attacks on Oct. 7, 2023 constituted the deadliest day for Jews since the Holocaust.
Yet, both Scholz’s and Merz’s administrations appear unable and unwilling to differentiate between antisemitism and criticism of the devastation Israel has been meting out on Gaza. When France, the U.K. and Canada signed a joint letter threatening Israel with “concrete actions,” Merz stood apart. True, he has criticized Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in recent days, but that criticism was followed by a reassurance that weapons sales would continue. After the U.S., Germany is the world’s second largest supplier of arms to Israel — and its second most vocal supporter. Even in 2024, the previous government approved exports worth €160 million, including engines for Israeli Merkava tanks.
But behind the scenes, thinking is beginning to shift. According to surveys, German public support for Israel is falling.
Now, Merz’s next big test — and Europe’s — will be the upcoming NATO summit in the Hague. It is being choreographed by the alliance’s Secretary-General Mark Rutte as a gala to celebrate Trump. Contentious discussions are being kept off the table, antagonisms kept at bay, with the aim of keeping the mercurial president from abandoning the West. The exercise in damage limitation is proceeding commendably.
So, while Merz may not yet have much to show for himself, his first forays in international diplomacy suggest he is quickly finding his feet.
The post Can Merz have an effective foreign policy? appeared first on Politico.
