The Pacers continued their remarkable run of dramatic upsets this postseason on Thursday night in Game 1 of the NBA Finals.
On the road against a Thunder team that has been heavily favored to win the NBA Finals for months, Indiana trailed 94-79 with just under 10 minutes to play in Game 1.
But the Pacers once again refused to quit, and they ended up outscoring the Thunder 35-25 in the fourth quarter.
When Tyrese Haliburton’s game-winning jumper ripped the net with 0.3 seconds remaining, Indiana had completed its fourth historic comeback of the playoffs. The Pacers also stunned Milwaukee in the first round, Cleveland in the Eastern Conference semis and New York in the Eastern Conference Finals with furious late rallies.
NBA Finals Game 2 Odds: Spread, ML, Total
Despite their Game 1 collapse down the stretch, the Thunder are favored by even more in Game 2 than they were in Game 1.
On one hand, that makes plenty of sense to anyone who watched OKC bounce back from a similar Game 1 loss at home to Denver in the second round with a 149-106 win in Game 2 of that series.
On the other, betting against Haliburton and the Pacers has proven costly throughout these playoffs.
How to Watch NBA Finals Game 2: Pacers vs. Thunder
- Tipoff: 8 p.m. ET
- Channel: ABC
NBA Finals Series Winner Odds: OKC Remains Heavy Favorite
Oklahoma City’s odds to win the Finals are much shorter than they were prior to Game 1, but the Thunder remain heavily favored in this series.
- DraftKings: OKC -300; IND +245
- FanDuel: OKC -330; IND +265
- bet365: OKC -330; IND +265
NBA Finals Game 2 Betting Picks, Analysis
Why The Thunder Could Win (And/Or Cover)
The Thunder lost Game 1 largely because they went cold (7-for-19, 0-for-5 from 3 in the fourth quarter) while allowing the Pacers to get hot at the wrong time (4Q FG shooting: 12-for-24, 6-for-10 3pt).
OKC had a number of other issues in Game 1, though, but those problems should be fixable for a team that has been dominant throughout the regular season and playoffs.
First of all, the Thunder allowed the Pacers to grab 13 offensive rebounds on just 43 missed shots in Game 1. That includes nine OREBs by Indiana on just 23 missed FGs in the second half. On the other end, the Thunder recorded just 10 offensive rebounds on 59 missed shots
The Pacers were 29th in the league in offensive rebounding rate in the regular season, so it’s hard to imagine OKC losing this battle throughout the series. In Game 1, Indiana not only got big rebounding nights from bigs Myles Turner (9 boards, including 5 offensive) and Pascal Siakam (10 rebounds, including 4 offensive), but also forward Aaron Nesmith (12 rebounds) and Haliburton (10 rebounds).
The turnover battle will be the bigger talking point tonight. Though they already pulled it off once, the Pacers are (obviously) unlikely to upset OKC again if they regularly turn the ball over.
But my question is about what OKC does with those Pacers TOs. In Game 1, Indiana survived its 24 turnovers largely because the Thunder only turned those into 11 points off turnovers.
Will OKC be able to take better advantage of the turnovers it forces tonight?
The last reason to like the Thunder tonight (and in this series) comes with a caveat.
If we assume Jalen Williams (17 points on 6-for-19 shooting) and Chet Holmgren (6 points on 2-for-9 shooting, including an abysmal 2-for-8 from within 4 feet of the rim) will play as well as they’re capable of playing throughout the rest of this series, OKC should have too much firepower for the Pacers.
Related: as a team, the Thunder shot just 22-for-47 (46.8 percent) from less than 10 feet in Game 1, per NBA.com. Indiana went 15-for-29 on its shots from less than 10 feet.
On the other hand, if this proves to be a bad matchup for both Williams (20.2 ppg on 44.8 percent FG shooting in the playoffs) and Holmgren (15.8 ppg on 47.7 FG shooting in the playoffs), the Thunder could be in real trouble.
Why The Pacers Could Win (And/Or Cover)
The case for Indiana starts with the fact that right now, Haliburton and Co. are terrifying if it’s close in the closing minutes. Regardless of what happens in the rest of this series, Indiana has already put together a historically good run of clutch play this postseason.
From an X’s and O’s standpoint, a strength throughout the playoffs for Indiana has been not only its 3-point shooting in general, but its ability to create and knock down open corner 3s.
In Game 1, OKC’s aggressive perimeter defense did force a slew of turnovers. Unfortunately for the Thunder, that aggression was also a big reason why the Pacers were able to shoot 10-for-16 on corner treys.
Going forward, whether OKC can limit those looks will be one of the most interesting and significant questions of this series.
Indiana’s success on that front shouldn’t have shocked anyone who watched the Pacers’ run through the East. The play of the Indiana bench, however, was a pleasant surprise in Game 1.
For all of the Thunder’s star power, they were (and still are) so heavily favored in this series partly because of the perceived depth advantage they have. Few would argue that Cason Wallace (who started Game 1 but typically comes off the bench), Alex Caruso, Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins give OKC one of the best bench units in the NBA.
But in the series opener, the Indiana bench outscored OKC’s 39-28 thanks to a 17-point night by Obi Toppin.
The former Knick bounced back in a huge way after turning it over three times in the first quarter. He finished with five made 3-pointers and a game-high plus/minus of +13 in 25 minutes.
Toppin played over 20 minutes just twice in the first 15 games of the playoffs. But dating back to Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals, he has now scored 35 total points over 50 minutes of action in Indiana’s last two games on 13-for-20 FG shooting (7-for-12 3pt).
NBA Finals Game 2 Best Bets: Will OKC Bounce Back?
I’m going to resist the urge to take the Thunder to win big in this series until at least Game 3. Indiana is just too deep, and too well-coached, for me to rule out another fourth-quarter rally, even if OKC jumps out to a big lead.
The Pacers were efficient when they weren’t turning the ball over in Game 1. In fact, they finished with a much better assist rate than OKC (61.5 compared to 33.3 for OKC), and they also won the true shooting (60.8 percent to 50.7) and effective field goal percentage (58.5 to 45.4) battles convincingly.
As concerning as it was for Indiana backers to see this team turn it over 19 times in the first half, the fact they only turned it over 5 times in the second half provided reason to believe they won’t be overwhelmed by the Thunder’s ball pressure throughout the series.
The best Pacers vs. Thunder ATS bet tonight is the Thunder to start off hot and cover the first-half spread.
I also like the Over, as I expect a faster pace tonight after the Pacers seemed to realize after halftime of Game 1 that shorter possessions were better for their chances of not only A) avoiding turnovers, but also B) generating quality looks.
- Thunder alt 1H -7.5 (-112 at FanDuel) — 1 unit
- Over 228.5 (-110 at bet365) — 1 unit
Newsweek may earn an affiliate commission if you sign up through the links in this article. See the sportsbook operator’s terms and conditions for important details. Sports betting operators have no influence over newsroom coverage.
The post NBA Finals Game 2 Betting Odds, Picks, Best Bets: OKC Heavy Home Favorites appeared first on Newsweek.
