As President Donald Trump threatens to cancel SpaceX‘s government contracts amid a feud with Elon Musk, experts told Newsweek that the move could leave the U.S. reliant on Russia for space launches and access.
“SpaceX is immensely important to U.S. national security and NASA,” Clayton Swope, deputy director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies Aerospace Security Project, told Newsweek on Friday, adding that if the contracts are terminated, “NASA would again have to turn to Russia to get to and from the [International] Space Station [ISS].”
Why It Matters
NASA and SpaceX have built one of the most significant public-private partnerships in modern space exploration. Since 2015, SpaceX has received more than $13 billion in NASA contracts, making it one of the agency’s largest private partners.
SpaceX is deeply integrated into U.S. national security and the space program, with Swope telling Newsweek: “SpaceX is not like the appendix but a vital organ in everything the United States is doing in space.”
Musk, the SpaceX CEO and former Trump ally heading the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), clashed publicly with the president on Thursday in a heated exchange on social media. The dispute began over Musk’s criticism of a Trump-backed spending bill and escalated into threats over federal contracts and allegations involving Trump’s ties to child sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.
What To Know
On Thursday, the president threatened termination of Musk’s various contracts, writing in a Truth Social post: “The easiest way to save money in our Budget, Billions and Billions of Dollars, is to terminate Elon’s Governmental Subsidies and Contracts.”
SpaceX holds billions of dollars in NASA contracts and plays a key role in the U.S. space program. While several experts told Newsweek they don’t believe the contracts will be canceled, they raised concerns about the company’s outsized influence on the industry and the critical gaps it could leave.
Access To The ISS
“SpaceX is immensely important to U.S. national security and NASA. SpaceX is not like the appendix, but a vital organ in everything the United States is doing in space,” Swope said Friday in an emailed statement.
“Ending work with SpaceX would leave a huge gap that cannot be filled with the other options available today. The biggest impacts would be to space launch and maintaining the International Space Stations. NASA would again have to turn to Russia to get to and from the space station.”
In 2014, SpaceX was selected to provide crew launch services to the ISS through the development of Crew Dragon, a capsule that transports astronauts to and from the ISS, and its operational missions. NASA has no other way to independently get to and from the ISS without SpaceX.
As a result of this and other measures, Scott Hubbard, former director of NASA’s Ames Research Center, the first Mars program director and the founder of NASA’s Astrobiology Institute, told Newsweek that he doesn’t believe Trump’s threats will be realized, saying: “There is no alternative to the F9-Dragon combination at present.
“He would be stranding astronauts on the ISS unless he wants to go hat in hand to the Russians and try to get more Soyuz flight,” in reference to the spacecraft that provides crewed transport to the ISS.
Russia, formerly part of the Soviet Union, and the U.S. have long been in a space race. Russia is actively developing its own space station, known as the Russian Orbital Service Station (ROSS), to succeed the ISS, which is set to retire in 2030. Construction on the proposed project is set to begin in 2027.
Laura Forczyk, founder of space consulting firm Astralytical, told Newsweek that while it’s possible the U.S. may negotiate a contract with Russia to launch astronauts to the ISS, “the current geopolitical climate would make that difficult.”
Tensions between Washington and Moscow remain high as ceasefire talks for the Russia-Ukraine war have stalled, with the last round of negotiations lasting just 90 minutes with little progress. Adding to the tension, Dmitry Novikov, first deputy chairman of Russia’s State Duma Committee on International Affairs, told the state-run outlet TASS on Friday that while he doesn’t believe Musk will need political asylum, “if he did, Russia, of course, could provide it.”
Stateside, space experts largely agree that Musk essentially has a “monopoly” on the industry, responsible for key people movement and launching “more than 90 percent of the U.S. satellites into space,” Darrell West, a senior fellow in the Center for Technology Innovation in the governance studies program at the Brookings Institution in Washington, told Newsweek.
While companies like Jeff Bezos‘ Blue Origin and Boeing are also involved in spaceflight, they don’t operate at the same capacity as SpaceX or hold the same number and type of government contracts.
Michelle Hanlon, executive director of the University of Mississippi’s Center for Air and Space Law, told Newsweek in an email: “Certainly, there are other launch service providers but SpaceX remains dominant and the time it would take to replace all services would delay many important missions and strategic plans, including the proposed Golden Dome.”
She added that “U.S. reliance on SpaceX is not borne of favoritism but of necessity and efficiency.”
Aspects Of The Space Program
Space research and exploration go beyond science. They are central to U.S. national security. The Department of Defense holds multiple contracts to launch satellites used for GPS, intelligence gathering and military coordination. During the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union fiercely competed for dominance in space, viewing it as a critical domain of defense.
“Space is important as an end in itself in terms of exploring and gaining new knowledge. But it also is taking on a defense role, because space is getting militarized. There are both offensive and defensive weapons that could be put into space,” West said.
“There’s a lot riding on this relationship. People are worried if there is a major war, adversaries could shoot down our satellites and destroy our GPS systems and mobile communications.”
Beyond high-profile rocket launches and missions to the ISS, the U.S. space program encompasses a wide range of activities, including deploying space-based science observatories, launching lunar landers and preparing crewed and uncrewed missions to the moon and other planets, among other initiatives.
What Happens Next
When Newsweek reached out to the White House for comment on Friday, it was referred to NASA Press Secretary Bethany Stevens’ statement, which was emailed to Newsweek.
“NASA will continue to execute upon the President’s vision for the future of space,” Stevens said. “We will continue to work with our industry partners to ensure the President’s objectives in space are met.”
Given the volatile nature of their feud, it remains unclear whether Trump will attempt to cancel existing contracts or limit future deals, or whether Musk could pull SpaceX out of its government commitments altogether.
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