Russia plans to seize half of Ukraine by the end of next year, according to Kyiv, which has released a map outlining purported territorial expansion plans that could put Moscow on a collision course with President Donald Trump‘s repeated calls for peace talks.
Ukrainian Presidential Office Deputy Head Colonel Pavlo Palisa made the claims, and they were followed by Trump warning that he would use further sanctions against Moscow if the war dragged on.
Newsweek has contacted the White House and the Kremlin for comment.
Why It Matters
The map presented by Kyiv shows territorial intentions far beyond the formal demands Moscow has made before it would agree to a ceasefire. But Trump has warned of further sanctions on Russia if it drags out peace negotiations.
A bipartisan sanctions bill in the U.S. seeks to impose a 500-percent levy on imports from countries that buy Russian oil and raw materials.
What To Know
Palisa told reporters Thursday that Russia intends to capture all of Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by September 1 and create a buffer zone along the northern Ukrainian-Russian border by the end of this year.
Palisa also said Moscow intended to occupy all of Ukraine on the east (left) bank of the Dnieper River and capture the regions of Odesa and Mykolaiv by the end of 2026, which would deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) published a map Palisa had presented. It pointed to Moscow’s plans to seize roughly 85,000 additional square miles of Ukrainian territory and hold a total of 129,000 square miles by the end of 2026, over half the total area of Ukraine.
Yuriy Boyechko, founder of Hope for Ukraine, which helps those living on the front line, told Newsweek that Moscow will not stop its current offensive until December and warned that it will occupy new regions of Ukraine by the end of 2025.
However, the Washington, D.C., think tank ISW said Friday that Russian forces are highly unlikely to be able to make the advances Palisa suggested in this time frame, given the current pace of Moscow’s advances, and if Ukraine continues to receive Western aid.
The ISW said that Palisa’s map suggests Moscow will try to seize and leverage positions in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions to push on and capture all of Donetsk and Luhansk.
Russian forces would also purportedly try to seize Kherson Oblast and create a “buffer zone” along the border in northern Ukraine by the end of this year.
But neither of these scenarios is likely in this period, the ISW said. In Donetsk, Russia had only advanced around 30 miles from the outskirts of Avdiivka in the last 15 months. Moscow would struggle to capture the rest of Kherson region, which required crossing the Dnieper River, the ISW added.
But Russia’s plans as described by Palisa far exceed Moscow’s formal territorial demands it has made as terms to any ceasefire or long-term peace deal, which Trump has pushed for.
U.S. Bipartisan Sanctions Bill
The Wall Street Journal reported that the White House is trying to get Republican Senator Lindsey Graham to soften the “bone crushing” sanctions bill against Russia he introduced along with Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal.
However, Trump administration officials have called on Graham to water down the legislation, congressional aides told the WSJ by inserting waivers allowing Trump to choose which entities get sanctioned and changing the word “shall” to “may.”
Republican Senator Roger Wicker said on Wednesday said that Trump had asked the Senate to postpone voting on the bill, which, if implemented, would impose measures that include:
- a 500 percent tariff on imports from any country that buys Russian oil, gas, uranium and other products.
- the prohibition of any investments by U.S. financial institutions that benefit the Russian government.
- the prohibition on listing or trading of Russian entities on United States securities exchanges.
- sanctions on financial institutions linked to the Russian Government, such as the Russian Central Bank, and Russian banks.
- sanctions on Russian officials, including Putin, his cabinet ministers and military chiefs.
Boyechko, from Hope for Ukraine, told Newsweek that tough U.S. sanctions were essential to maintaining American credibility, especially after what he described as a “complete disaster” for U.S. diplomacy in the past four months in which Putin ignored Trump’s 30-day ceasefire proposal.
“Putin used the four months of empty peace talks to regroup, and now the Russians have begun their summer offensive campaign, taking over 100 square kilometers [38 square miles] of new territory, including some villages in the Sumy region,” Boyechko added.
What People Are Saying
Ukrainian Presidential Office Deputy Head Colonel Pavlo Palisa said Thursday: Russia’s “plan for next year is to occupy the whole part of Ukraine which is situated on the left bank of the Dnieper River,” and “occupy the Odesa and Mykolaiv regions to cut Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea.”
President Donald Trump said about U.S. sanctions: “If I think Russia will not be making a deal or stopping the bloodshed … I’ll use it if it’s necessary.”
He added: “I’m OK with it. I haven’t decided to use it. It’s a very strong bill.”
Yuriy Boyechko, founder of Hope for Ukraine, told Newsweek: “Russians will not stop their offensive until November or December, so, unless the U.S. and Western allies get serious by applying severe sanctions and getting more weapons to Ukraine, we are looking at new regions of Ukraine occupied by Russians by the end of 2025.”
What Happens Next
Regardless of the battlefield predictions made by Kyiv, all eyes will be on what Trump does regarding the U.S. bipartisan bill against Russia; Graham said it has the backing of 72 senators and sufficient support in the House of Representatives.
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