Investors and central bankers will be closely watching the jobs report for signs of how the labor market is holding up amid President Trump’s trade war.
Economists surveyed by FactSet estimate that the economy added 125,000 jobs in May, below the 177,000 added in April. That’s solid growth, but it comes as companies move to pause hiring over uncertainty around economic growth and the fallout from tariffs.
Recent college graduates have been hit especially hard. Unemployment for those ages 22 to 27 rose to 5.8 percent in March, a four-year high, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Researchers attributed some of the difficulty finding jobs to larger societal shifts.
“While some of it is related to a normalization after the post-pandemic surge,” a recent report by Oxford Economics noted, “there are signs that entry-level positions are being displaced by artificial intelligence at higher rates.”
A data point to watch: Recent grads make up only 5 percent of the total work force, but they account for 12 percent of the 85 percent increase in the overall unemployment rate since mid-2023, according to Oxford Economics.
Layoffs are still relatively low, said Allison Shrivastava, an economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab. “But if you’re trying to get into the labor market right now, that’s where you’re really facing challenges,” she added. “And that’s where new grads are facing challenges.”
For recent grads, jobs are more scarce in the finance and tech sectors, including software development, Ms. Shrivastava said.
On Wednesday, research from the payroll company ADP reported that hiring in May slowed to its lowest level in more than two years. That said, the so-called JOLTS data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed an unexpected increase in job openings in April, and an uptick in hiring.
Danielle Kaye is a Times business reporter and a 2024 David Carr Fellow, a program for journalists early in their careers.
The post Job Market Is Getting Tougher for College Graduates appeared first on New York Times.
