A new forecast from AccuWeather outlines the timeline of the development for two potential tropical storms in the Eastern Pacific Ocean.
The storms could form within days of each other, marking the second and third tropical storms of the season, an unusual occurrence if it happens, considering that would mark three tropical storms only a month into the hurricane season.
However, AccuWeather senior meteorologist John Feerick told Newsweek that the two budding systems could also combine into one large system, although the more likely scenario is that one steals energy from the other, causing it to dissolve before it becomes a named storm.
Why It Matters
The Eastern Pacific hurricane season began on May 15, two weeks earlier than the Central Pacific and Atlantic hurricane seasons, which started on June 1. Each hurricane season runs through November 30.
Tropical Storm Alvin kicked off the Eastern Pacific hurricane season late last month when it formed off the coast of Mexico and brought heavy rain across the U.S. Southwest. Alvin formed a little earlier than is normal for the season, which typically sees its first storm around June 10.
What to Know
As of Thursday afternoon, two separate storm systems are developing south of Mexico. Neither of the systems is organized, so Feerick said it’s “not out of the question” that they could combine into one system.
However, forecast models anticipate them remaining separate. If they both end up strengthening into a tropical storm, AccuWeather anticipates the western system would form sooner, between June 6 and June 8. The eastern system could form between June 12 and June 14.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) also is tracking the systems. It puts the eastern system at a higher chance of development, with there being an 80 percent chance it will form within the next seven days. Meanwhile, the NHC says the western system has a 30 percent chance of development in the next seven days.
AccuWeather meteorologists are anticipating 14 to 18 tropical storms and seven to 10 hurricanes for the Eastern Pacific this season. An average season produces 15 tropical storms and four hurricanes, according to AccuWeather.
Meanwhile, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is forecasting a below-normal hurricane season for the Eastern Pacific with 12 to 18 named storms. Of those, five to 10 will likely become hurricanes, and two to five could develop into major hurricanes.
AccuWeather also is tracking a potential system in the Caribbean, which is part of the Atlantic hurricane season. If that system forms, it would likely do so between June 12 and 16.
What People Are Saying
NHC in a tropical weather outlook: “Two areas of low pressure are forecast to form from a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms that are currently located several hundred miles south of southern Mexico. One low is expected to form on the east side of an elongated trough during the next day or so a few hundred miles south of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend while the system moves generally west-northwestward.”
Feerick told Newsweek: “It certainly would be climatologically pretty early to have three named storms by the middle of June.”
What Happens Next
The NHC will likely issue more updates as the storms become more organized. People in high-risk areas of impact are urged to have a plan in place to prepare for the hurricane season.
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