Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s year could not have gone better — for Converse.
The 26-year-old point guard, now in his seventh season, led the N.B.A. in scoring. He won the league’s Most Valuable Player Award. And his team, the Oklahoma City Thunder, had the best record in the N.B.A.
On Thursday, Mr. Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder will face the Indiana Pacers in Game 1 of the N.B.A. finals, trying for the franchise’s first championship since 1979 (back when the Thunder were known as the Seattle SuperSonics).
So when the Shai 001, Mr. Gilgeous-Alexander’s first signature sneaker, is released by Converse this autumn, it will be a fitting coda to a triumphant season — and, for the brand, the ideal moment to capitalize on its marquee star’s success.
What’s remarkable is that this confluence of favorable conditions was not some brilliant marketing stratagem — it was, in essence, a stroke of luck. And with the time and money invested by shoe companies in upcoming N.B.A. players, who are sometimes signed before they have played a single minute in the league, things could have easily gone another way.
Adrian Stelly, the director of sports marketing for Converse, met Mr. Gilgeous-Alexander more than a decade ago, when he was in high school in Hamilton, Ontario. He signed him to the brand in 2019 during Mr. Gilgeous-Alexander’s rookie season with the Los Angeles Clippers, when he averaged 10.8 points per game — long before he made the leap to All-Star levels.
He could have ended up being a role player, rather than a star. He could have torn ligaments in his knee and fallen out of the league. He could have clashed with teammates. Consider that Mr. Gilgeous-Alexander was the 11th pick in the 2018 N.B.A. draft; the 13th pick that year, Jerome Robinson, played only parts of four seasons in the league. What if Converse had signed him instead?
These are the what-ifs and sliding-doors scenarios that every major shoe brand has to contend with. Designing, manufacturing and marketing a signature shoe costs millions of dollars, and with so much at stake, it raises the question: How do the shoe companies decide which players are worth the investment?
“That’s the hard part, right?” said Daniel Schachne, the general manager of sport for Jordan Brand. “That’s what makes it interesting, in that every brand takes a slightly different approach.”
Jordan Brand, a subsidiary of Nike, is responsible for Michael Jordan’s flagship Air Jordan sneakers, but it has also produced shoes for other N.B.A. stars, including Jayson Tatum of the Boston Celtics and Luka Doncic of the Los Angeles Lakers. The job of the brand’s sports marketing team, Mr. Schachne said, is to “build connections early on and identify talent that they think is special, long before these athletes have become household names.”
Susan Mulders, a vice president of sports marketing for Jordan Brand, said that there was “no magic formula” for identifying the players who will thrive. “The entire process is truly an art, not a science.”
Ms. Mulders and her team scout high school games, basketball camps and tournaments on the lookout for intriguing young players, diligently evaluating their potential based on “physical attributes like size and frame, technical ability,” as well as “their personality and character,” she said.
“We also pay close attention to the relationship piece — who surrounds this young person?” she added. “What is their family dynamic? Who are their influences?”
The brand’s scouts foster relationships with the players and their families early on to prepare for the next steps.
“We don’t just suddenly appear when a player declares for the draft,” Ms. Mulders said. “That’s too late, in our view.”
Signature sneakers used to be reserved for superstars like Mr. Jordan, Shaquille O’Neal, Kobe Bryant and Allen Iverson. Now, smaller brands, eager to stand out in a crowded market, often sign less prominent players to endorsement deals, leading to signature shoes for players like Aaron Gordon of the Denver Nuggets, Austin Reaves of the Lakers and Spencer Dinwiddie of the Dallas Mavericks. That has created an issue for brands like Nike and Adidas, which historically were more patient.
“Gone are the days where you’re just signing the All-Star or the future M.V.P. and that’s enough,” said Tanya Hvizdak, a vice president of sports marketing for Nike. “The expectations are so much higher now.”
In addition to producing shoes for household names like LeBron James of the Lakers or Kevin Durant of the Phoenix Suns, Nike also makes them for All-Stars like Ja Morant of the Memphis Grizzlies and Devin Booker of the Suns, as well as W.N.B.A. stars like Sabrina Ionescu of the New York Liberty and A’ja Wilson of the Las Vegas Aces.
A signature sneaker is on the way for Victor Wembanyama, the 21-year-old phenom for the San Antonio Spurs, and one of Nike’s latest signings is Ace Bailey, an 18-year-old out of Rutgers University who is expected to be a top-five pick in this year’s N.B.A. draft.
“The game continues to evolve, and I think there’s an expectation that we have to differentiate ourselves,” Ms. Hvizdak said. “I’d like to think that more competitors in this space challenges us to continue to raise the bar.”
The rush to sign athletes so early, however, can result in some missteps.
Puma signed Scoot Henderson to a multiyear endorsement deal in 2022, shortly before he was drafted by the Portland Trail Blazers. In his first two seasons, he has struggled to live up to expectations, providing modest production for a losing team.
“Scoot’s rookie year struggles really killed any shot that that shoe had,” said Dezmond Moore, the chief of content at the sneaker blog Nice Kicks. “Giving a sneaker to a rookie was a gamble. It’s a big declaration. Now, seeing how that’s panned out, I don’t think we’re going to see something like that again for a long time.”
Rodney Rambo, the chief marketing officer for Converse, said that the success of the Shai 001 was not contingent on Mr. Gilgeous-Alexander having his landmark year, and that the brand would have been satisfied without the M.V.P. award or deep postseason run.
“If Shai had ended up being middle of the pack, that would have been OK for us,” he said a day before the M.V.P. award was officially announced. “There are a lot of players that have won M.V.P.s that don’t sell product. Whereas there are some players, like Dennis Rodman, who really grab attention. Shai is his own person, and we believe that’s fundamentally what the world is looking for — not just wins.”
Mr. Gilgeous-Alexander is known for his style off the court — GQ has named him the N.B.A.’s “most stylish man” multiple years running. And when it comes to putting out a sneaker, that reputation may be more valuable than other accolades. “I believe that’s what our consumers gravitate towards — that personality, that aura,” Mr. Rambo said. “And that is very much both on and off the court.”
Bryon Milburn, the senior vice president and chief merchandising officer for Foot Locker, echoed the idea that “aura” is a critical factor.
“It’s no longer just about performance — winning a championship doesn’t equate to a spike in sales,” he said. “It’s about personality, relatability and connection. Young athletes who can seamlessly bridge performance and style are key drivers of both brand heat and sales.”
Case in point: In addition to Mr. Henderson, Puma also signed LaMelo Ball of the Charlotte Hornets, who has had an erratic start to his N.B.A. career, with a great deal of time lost to injury while stuck on a losing team. But owing to his extravagant style and big personality, Mr. Ball’s first shoe, the MB.01, was a huge hit, especially with younger basketball fans.
“LaMelo has got that aura, that cool factor that people like, and it helps tenfold with the shoes,” said Charley McClay, a sneaker content creator. “I don’t want to buy a shoe from a no-name guy that’s kind of cool, middle of the pack. I want to buy the shoe that people are talking about.”
Of course, it also depends on the brand — and some brands don’t want flashy.
When New Balance signed Kawhi Leonard, it wasn’t a larger-than-life personality that made him appealing — Mr. Leonard, a two-time N.B.A. champion, is so well known for being sedate that a rare laugh during an interview became an internet meme. According to Naveen Lokesh, the head of global sports marketing for New Balance, Mr. Leonard’s “quiet confidence” was exactly what made him right for the company.
“We as a brand don’t like to shout,” Mr. Lokesh said. “We like to show rather than tell. And Kawhi is the same way.”
New Balance recently signed Cooper Flagg, a Duke star who is expected to be the first overall pick in this year’s N.B.A. draft — a player considered as close to a sure thing as possible. But the brand has had success with riskier bets as well: In 2022, the company signed Tyrese Maxey, a promising player for the Philadelphia 76ers. Last season, after the team traded James Harden, a star guard, Mr. Maxey took his spot in the starting lineup, elevating his game to a level few had expected.
Mr. Lokesh admitted that Mr. Maxey’s rise was “a little bit of luck.” At the same time, that was never quite what he was banking on. “What I promise the team here is that I will bring the best humans possible,” he said. “Tyrese has those values. He’s family-oriented. He’s a hard worker. And if he gets the right opportunity, he’ll excel.”
“They also have to be among the best basketball players in the world, sure,” he added. “But I can’t guarantee performance. No one can.”
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