After OKC star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander took home NBA regular season MVP and Western Conference Finals MVP, it should come as no surprise that current NBA Finals MVP odds are not exactly wide-open.
We’ll dive into the odds for this race at various sportsbooks later in this piece, but first, let’s quickly highlight why this race is seen as SGA’s to lose.
SGA Dominating Playoffs Following MVP Regular Season
In addition to his excellent counting stats in the regular season (32.7 points per game, 5.0 rebounds per game and 6.4 assists per game), his status as the top player on by far the best team in the league put him over the top despite another massive year by Denver’s Nikola Jokic.
Though Jokic posted absurd numbers of his own for the Nuggets, SGA won this year’s MVP vote, 71-29, over the three-time winner (’21, ’22, ’24).
SGA has not slowed down in the playoffs, with postseason averages of 29.8 ppg, 5.7 rpg and 6.9 apg.
With 31.4 ppg and 8.2 apg vs. the Timberwolves, there was never any doubt about who would be named MVP of that series. SGA took home that honor after his team’s blowout Game 5 win to clinch its spot in the Finals.
NBA Finals MVP Odds: SGA Clear Favorite
It’s probably going to take either A) an injury to Gilgeous-Alexander, B) a shocking upset by the Pacers or C) a monstrous series by OKC All-Star Jalen Williams due to Indiana selling out to contain SGA for this not to go chalk.
To me, that’s about all there is to it.
Best NBA Finals MVP Longshot: J. Williams
Could Jalen Williams Take Over, Contend For Finals MVP?
Now, let’s take a look at Williams’ case — and the historical precedent, including the 2024 Finals — of a championship-winning team’s “Robin” (as opposed to its Batman) winning Finals MVP.
In the last 10 years, below are the Finals MVP winners:
- 2024: Jaylen Brown, Celtics
- 2023: Nikola Jokic, Nuggets
- 2022: Stephen Curry, Warriors
- 2021: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks
- 2020: LeBron James
- 2019: Kawhi Leonard
- 2018: Kevin Durant
- 2017: Kevin Durant
- 2016: LeBron James
- 2015: Andre Iguodala
If anything, that list just makes it that much more difficult to see Williams wining MVP at SGA’s expense (assuming the Thunder take care of business as -700 favorites).
The most recent winner, Celtics SF Jaylen Brown, probably provides as much reason to consider taking a flier on Williams as any of the results over the last decade, though.
Iguodala winning Finals MVP in Golden State’s first title run with Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green is certainly worth noting, though.
In last year’s beatdown of the Mavericks, Brown played a huge role in limiting Luka Doncic, and he also averaged 20.8 points, 5.4 rebounds and 5.0 assists.
Tatum, the bigger star of the Celtics’ leading duo, finished the 2024 Finals with 22.2 points, 7.8 rebounds 7.2 assists per game. But the former Duke star fell behind Brown in the MVP race after scoring less than 20 points in Games 1, 2 and 4.
Tatum had a huge performance in Game 5 to help the Celtics close out the Mavericks, but last year’s Finals MVP voters appeared to have made their decisions about who they were voting for before that game tipped off.
Turning our attention to whether Jalen Williams could follow in Brown’s footsteps, there is at least one bit of good news for anyone backing Williams: he’s already played at an MVP level in a few of OKC’s playoff games.
He piled up 26 points, 10 rebounds and 5 assists vs. the Wolves in Game 2 of that series. He also finished with 34 points in one of the best games of his career to be sure OKC left Minnesota up 3-1 in the Western Conference Finals.
Williams is a tough sell, though, because he’s also put up modest numbers in a number of OKC’s playoff games.
Unfortunately for anyone hoping to take anyone besides SGA in this martet, he balance of the Thunder attack means they can win even on off nights by Williams.
That’s a great reason to like the heavy favorites to win this series, but it prevents me from recommending anyone other than SGA winning this award.
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