BRUSSELS — The European Union’s top scientific advisers on Monday blasted the EU’s expected plan to outsource part of the bloc’s climate efforts to poorer countries.
The EU’s scientific advisory board on climate change, an independent body legally tasked with making global warming policy recommendations, insisted the bloc must meet its 2040 emissions-cutting target exclusively with domestic efforts.
“The integrity of the domestic goal should not be undermined by these international activities,” Ottmar Edenhofer, the board’s chairman, told reporters on Monday.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, as well as her climate chiefs Wopke Hoekstra and Teresa Ribera, have promised a proposal to cut 90 percent of the EU’s greenhouse gas emissions by 2040. But many governments pushed back at those plans.
As a result, Hoekstra delayed the legislation to explore options giving governments more leeway. Last week, he told EU countries that his proposal, now expected on July 2, would let them use international carbon credits to help meet the goal. Germany, France and Poland are among the countries backing the approach.
The scientists are having none of it. “The Advisory Board does not recommend using international carbon credits to replace domestic emission reductions when meeting the 2040 target,” they write in Monday’s 60-page report.
If the EU chooses to purchase carbon credits, they must add to domestic efforts, not replace them, the scientists insist. “You can do this, but you should not do this by relaxing domestic targets,” Edenhofer said.
The report marks an unprecedented intervention by the scientists. Although the board does not criticize the Commission or EU governments outright, it has never previously commented on an ongoing political debate in this manner.
The board’s advice has proven influential in the past. In 2023, it recommended the EU slash emissions between 90 and 95 percent below the bloc’s 1990 baseline by 2040, providing the foundation for the Commission’s initial recommendation last year.
In Monday’s report, the scientists insist that their 2023 recommendation referred to CO2 reductions within the EU — just like the bloc’s legal 2030 and 2050 targets.
“The 90-95% emission reduction target recommended by the Advisory Board is expressed in domestic terms, as it is intended to place the EU on a feasible, credible and cost-efficient trajectory towards achieving climate neutrality by 2050,” they write.
“Aiming for a lower target would not only jeopardise the EU’s progress towards this goal, but also undermine its sustainability, long-term competitiveness and energy security in a time of geopolitical uncertainty,” they warn.
Credit questions
Under a United Nations-supported framework finalized last year, carbon credits allow one country to pay for emissions-slashing projects in another — usually a poorer, developing nation — and deduct the CO2 reduction from its own balance sheet.
For example, a European government can fund electric buses in Thailand to replace petrol vehicles, then use the resulting carbon credit to offset its own emissions instead of cutting that CO2 at home. (Switzerland is doing just that.)
Carbon credit proponents argue these transactions are more cost-effective than domestic action — funding electric buses in Thailand is cheaper than in Switzerland — while delivering the same emissions reduction. They also help poorer countries access financing for climate action.
Critics — which include the advisory board — say carbon credits undermine emissions-reduction efforts in richer countries and that major integrity questions remain.
“Using international carbon credits to meet this [2040] target, even partially, could undermine domestic value creation by diverting resources from the necessary transformation of the EU’s economy,” the scientists warned.
Past carbon offsets and credit trading schemes have often failed to deliver verifiable emissions cuts, though many hope the new U.N.-supported framework will improve their credibility.
“International credits might appear cost-effective from a global perspective, but they entail significant risks to carbon markets and environmental integrity,” the advisory board warns, noting that it’s far more difficult for the EU to monitor climate efforts abroad than at home.
EU can do it
Despite mounting challenges ranging from Russian aggression to inflation to intensifying economic competition, it’s “feasible” for the EU to hit a 90 to 95 percent target domestically, the scientists say.
“Achieving this target through domestic action will also reinforce the EU’s long-term competitiveness by accelerating clean technology innovation, reducing fossil fuel dependency and driving investment in future-oriented sectors,” they write.
A Commission spokesperson said the EU executive “welcomes the input” of the board, adding: “As we are preparing the [2040] proposal … this contribution from the Advisory Board is an important input for these reflections and consultations.”
Whether the report will sway Brussels or EU capitals remains to be seen, but the board’s criticism will likely complicate the Commission’s efforts to quickly pass the 2040 target — as much of the bloc’s climate credibility rests on its targets being based on science.
A 90 percent target partially met with credits would be “less credible” and entail “additional risks,” warned Edenhofer, the board’s chairman.
Asked if he had a message for governments pushing for carbon credits, Edenhofer said: “I have a message, and the message is that 90 to 95 percent is a domestic target, full stop.”
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