Poland votes on Sunday in a tight runoff vote for the presidency. It is a largely ceremonial post, but its veto powers have made the election of vital importance to Prime Minister Donald Tusk and to his centrist government, which is still trying to reverse the legacy of its hard-right predecessor.
The most populous economic and military power on the European Union’s eastern flank, Poland plays an important role as a bellwether. Its election is being closely watched as a sign of whether populist nationalism is a rising or receding force on the continent.
The two candidates represent starkly different political outlooks: Rafal Trzaskowski, 53, is the liberal, multilingual mayor of Warsaw and the son of a prominent jazz musician. Karol Nawrocki, 42, is a nationalist historian and former boxer.
Mr. Trzaskowski is supported by Mr. Tusk’s party, Civic Platform, and, if elected, would work closely with his government.
Mr. Nawrocki, a political novice, is hostile to Mr. Tusk and is backed by Poland’s previous governing party, Law and Justice.
If elected, Mr. Nawrocki would most likely use the powers of the presidency to block Mr. Tusk’s agenda, as the departing president, Andrzej Duda, has. He was able to obstruct it by vetoing legislation passed by Parliament or referring it for review by courts stacked with Law and Justice appointees.
This has stymied efforts by the government to uproot what it sees as the most damaging legacy of its predecessor: a politically compromised legal system.
Sunday’s election will decide whether the stalemate continues or gives way to more cooperation between the president and the government.
Here’s what you need to know about Poland’s presidential election.
How close is this election?
Most opinion polls in the final days of the campaign showed Mr. Trzaskowski running just ahead of or neck and neck with his right-wing rival.
The electorate, which numbers 29.2 million, is highly polarized. Eastern regions of Poland near Ukraine and Belarus, which are more rural, tend to tilt right and vote for Law and Justice. Western regions nearer Germany and northern cities along the Baltic Coast are generally more liberal and favor Civic Platform.
A candidate needs a majority to win, meaning that presidential elections in Poland usually comprise two rounds. In an initial round of voting on May 18, none of the 13 candidates competing came close to a majority. Mr. Trzaskowski and Mr. Nawrocki finished first and second, advancing to Sunday’s runoff.
Why is Donald Trump involved?
For supporters and foes of President Trump, the Polish election is a critical showdown between Europe’s political mainstream and resurgent nationalism.
It is seen by the hard-right as an opportunity to reassert itself on the European stage and comes only two weeks after the defeat of a nationalist candidate in Romania’s presidential election.
Mr. Trump effectively endorsed Mr. Nawrocki by receiving him in the Oval Office in May and giving him a thumbs up. Mr. Tusk, Poland’s prime minister since December 2023, has yet to be invited to the White House.
Mr. Trump’s homeland security secretary, Kristi Noem, traveled to Poland and spoke on Tuesday at a gathering of the Conservative Political Action Conference. She described Mr. Trzaskowski as a “train-wreck of a leader” and urged Polish voters to support Mr. Nawrocki.
What are the main issues?
The main issue underlying the election is whether Poland wants a president who can work with the government or against it.
In addition to having the right to veto legislation, the president can also issue pardons, a significant power given that, under Mr. Tusk’s government, prosecutors have started corruption cases against a number of former officials from Law and Justice. The government says it wants to enforce the law. Mr. Nawrocki has accused it of a politically motivated witch hunt.
Polish liberals have tried to make the election about the character of Mr. Nawrocki. They have criticized him for engaging in violent brawls as a soccer hooligan in his younger years, something he has acknowledged, and, citing news reports, said he had procured prostitutes for guests while working as a hotel security guard, an accusation he has strongly denied.
While dismissing stories from Mr. Nawrocki’s past, Poland’s nationalist right has worked to present his rival, Mr. Trzaskowski, as a Warsaw elitist and radical leftist out of touch with ordinary Poles.
Sunday’s vote is also in many ways a proxy battle between Poland’s two dominant political figures for the past two decades: Mr. Tusk, 68, and his longtime enemy, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, 75, the chairman of Law and Justice, who blames Mr. Tusk, without evidence, for the death of his twin brother, Lech, in a 2010 plane crash in Russia.
How do the candidates differ?
Mr. Nawrocki and Mr. Trzaskowski diverge sharply on most domestic issues, including abortion, which was all but banned during eight years of Law and Justice government.
They also have differing views of the European Union. Mr. Nawrocki, like Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary, wants to roll back the powers of the bloc and leave most decisions to individual states, while Mr. Trzaskowski is strongly pro-European. The president, however, plays no significant role in shaping Poland’s relations with the European Union.
The two candidates largely agree on Poland’s most pressing security issue — the war in neighboring Ukraine. Both want to strengthen Poland’s military, which already has the European Union’s largest army, and keep providing Ukraine with weapons for use against Russia’s invading army.
Mr. Nawrocki has been less enthusiastic than his rival about helping Ukrainian refugees.
What do young voters think about this election?
In the first round of voting, voters 18 to 29 overwhelmingly supported anti-establishment candidates who failed to make it to the runoff. They mostly shunned the candidates competing on Sunday, who represent Poland’s two dominant political parties.
But what some see as a climactic battle between left and right is seen by many young Polish voters as an infuriating rerun of a decades-old struggle.
“You only get angry looking at system politicians,” said Jan Stachura, 20, a student in Tychy, a town in Poland’s former industrial heartland in the southwestern region of Silesia.
Nearly 70 percent of voters under 30, according to exit poll data, voted for far-right candidates and fringe leftists.
Anatol Magdziarz contributed reporting.
Andrew Higgins is the East and Central Europe bureau chief for The Times based in Warsaw. He covers a region that stretches from the Baltic republics of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania to Kosovo, Serbia and other parts of former Yugoslavia.
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