The first tropical storm of the Atlantic hurricane season could form between June 6 and June 13, according to a new forecast from AccuWeather. Impacts could affect the Florida Keys between June 10 and 13.
Newsweek reached out to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) by email for comment.
Why It Matters
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30. Earlier this month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its 2025 hurricane forecast.
NOAA experts anticipate between 13 and 19 named storms forming during this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, with six to 10 strengthening into hurricanes and three to five strengthening into major hurricanes. NOAA forecasters are 70 percent confident in the ranges, the report said.
What to Know
Tropical Storm Alvin has already formed in the Eastern Pacific, which follows different forecasts and seasonal predictions than the Atlantic season. The Eastern Pacific season begins May 15, but Tropical Storm Alvin formed earlier than average when it strengthened from a tropical depression on Thursday.
No storms have formed in the Atlantic so far this year, but the first could begin to develop sometime between June 6 and 13, AccuWeather said in a report on Friday.
Several weather patterns are contributing to possible tropical storm development, including developing moisture that threatens showers and thunderstorms from South Florida south through Jamaica over the weekend. There also is “pulse of low pressure,” according to the report.
The U.S. coastline has a near-zero chance of tropical rain or wind through June 13, but AccuWeather labeled the Florida Keys as low risk, which is slightly higher. If a storm does form, U.S. impacts could occur closer to the middle of June, depending on which path the storm takes.
Despite AccuWeather issuing a low risk for tropical development in the western Caribbean and southern Gulf between June 6 and June 13, the NHC is not expecting any tropical activity in the Atlantic over the next seven days.
The first named storm of 2025 for the Atlantic hurricane season will be Andrea.
What People Are Saying
AccuWeather tropical meteorologist Alex Duffus said in the report: “This pulse will be moving slowly through the zone from the western Caribbean and southern Gulf around the same time when a surge of moisture may develop. For these reasons and a drop in disruptive winds in the region, we are issuing a chance for tropical development.”
Duffus added: “We believe there could be some tropical development over an approximate period sometime from June 6-13.”
Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm, in a press release about the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season: “As we witnessed last year with significant inland flooding from hurricanes Helene and Debby, the impacts of hurricanes can reach far beyond coastal communities. NOAA is critical for the delivery of early and accurate forecasts and warnings, and provides the scientific expertise needed to save lives and property.”
What Happens Next
The Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1. People in at-risk areas should monitor forecasts and be prepared for hurricanes or tropical storms.
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