A new poll indicates that Arizona’s gubernatorial race is set to be close, with Democratic incumbent Governor Katie Hobbs holding slim leads over both of her potential Republican challengers, Karrin Taylor Robson and Representative Andy Biggs.
According to a survey conducted by Noble Predictive from May 12-16 among 1,026 registered voters, Hobbs garners 41 percent support against Robson’s 39 percent, with 17 percent still undecided. Against Biggs, Hobbs leads 40 percent to 38 percent, with the same proportion of undecided voters.
The high percentage of undecided voters—17 percent in both matchups—indicates that the race remains anyone’s to win. The survey had a margin of error of about ± 3 percentage points.
Why It Matters
Arizona’s gubernatorial race will be one of the most closely watched elections of the 2026 midterms when Republicans are hoping to unseat incumbent Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs, who narrowly defeated Republican Kari Lake in the 2022 election. Arizona is a crucial swing state that backed President Donald Trump by nearly 6 points in the 2024 presidential race—his strongest showing of any swing state.
What To Know
The Republican primary has Karrin Taylor Robson leading the early field in the poll with 24 percent, followed by Biggs and conservative activist Charlie Kirk tied at 17 percent. However, Kirk has now withdrawn from the race and endorsed Biggs—a move likely to shift significant support to Biggs given Kirk’s strong favorability among young voters, and Hispanic/Latino voters.
“The moment Kirk stepped out and backed Biggs, the math changed. Biggs now has the opportunity to inherit a young, digital-savvy base that Kirk built, which could be decisive,” David Byler, chief of research at NPI, said, noting that he could be getting an “army” of support from Kirk’s organization, Turning Point USA.
However, Trump endorsed both Biggs and Robson, which could complicate dynamics. “When Andy Biggs decided to run for Governor, quite unexpectedly, I had a problem — Two fantastic candidates, two terrific people, two wonderful champions, and it is therefore my Great Honor TO GIVE MY COMPLETE AND TOTAL ENDORSEMENT TO BOTH,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
Nonetheless, Hobbs maintains the edge—at least for now.
Hobbs, elected in 2022, enjoys a favorability rating of 49 percent, with 37 percent viewing her unfavorably, giving her a net positive rating of +12, a solid foundation for her reelection bid in a state that has trended increasingly competitive in recent years.
Robson, who narrowly lost the 2022 GOP primary, is viewed slightly unfavorably (31-32, net -1), while Biggs, a member of Congress, has a net favorability of +4 (28-24).
The NPI report also noted that Arizona’s electorate is trending younger, more diverse, and more suburban—shifts that could favor Democrats if Hobbs successfully mobilizes these voters.
Arizona continues to be a politically competitive state, with a Republican registration advantage. As of April 2025, Arizona’s voter registration data indicates a Republican advantage of approximately 7.3 percentage points over Democrats. Specifically, 35.9 percent of registered voters are Republicans, while 28.6 percent are Democrats.
Historical midterm trends often favor the party not currently holding the presidency, adding another layer of complexity to the race.
Republican candidates have emphasized issues such as border security, tax policy, and loyalty to President Donald Trump—topics that polls show resonate with many Republican voters.
What People Are Saying
David Byler, chief of research at NPI, said: “The moment Kirk stepped out and backed Biggs, the math changed. Biggs now has the opportunity to inherit a young, digital-savvy base that Kirk built, which could be decisive.
“TPUSA is a young person thing. Biggs could be getting more than an endorsement. He could be getting an army.
“There’s a lot of overlap between what Biggs supporters and Taylor-Robson supporters see in their preferred candidate. To me, that suggests that we are still extremely early in this race. Voters don’t have well-formed opinions of either. Things are still fluid.”
Mike Noble, NPI Founder and CEO, said: “Katie Hobbs has a foundation, but not a fortress. With Republicans energized and the Trump factor still strong, this is shaping up to be a close and unpredictable race this early on.”
What Happens Next
Arizona’s gubernatorial primary will be held August 4, 2026, and the general election is slated for November 3, 2026. The Cook Political Report currently classifies the race as a pure tossup.
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