As the 2025 New York City Democratic mayoral primary approaches, recent polling has shown Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani trailing behind former Governor Andrew Cuomo, but the latest poll suggests Mamdani may be catching up with his opponent.
Newsweek has contacted representatives of Cuomo and Mamdani for comment via email.
Why It Matters
A primary win for Cuomo would mark a dramatic political comeback, just four years after he resigned as New York governor in 2021 amid the threat of impeachment over sexual misconduct allegations, which he has consistently denied. No charges relating to the allegations have ever been brought against him.
What To Know
With just weeks to go until New York City’s Democratic primary on June 24, a new Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey shows Mamdani gaining ground against Cuomo, though the former governor still maintains a commanding lead.
The poll, conducted from May 23 to 26 among 1,000 registered voters, found that 35 percent backed Cuomo on the first round of the ranked-choice ballot, while Mamdani was favored by 23 percent.
Despite the gap, Mamdani’s recent surge—gaining 23 points and attracting second-choice votes nearly two-to-one—has narrowed Cuomo’s ranked-choice lead from 12 to 9 points. After ten rounds of vote simulation, Cuomo would reach the 50 percent threshold with 54 percent, while Mamdani would end with 46 percent.
Cuomo’s support is strongest among Black voters (74 percent), voters over 50 (66 percent), and women (with a 58 percent to 42 percent edge over Mamdani). In contrast, Mamdani has built a solid base among voters under 50, leading with 61 percent, as well as among white voters (57 percent to 43 percent) and college-educated voters (58 percent to 42 percent). This split reflects the stark generational and ideological divides shaping the primary.
Looking ahead to the November general election, Cuomo maintains a lead in a hypothetical matchup, garnering 44 percent of support. Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa attracts 13 percent, while current Mayor Eric Adams, running as an independent, secures 10 percent, and independent candidate Jim Walden holds 7 percent. Meanwhile, 26 percent of voters remain undecided. If Mamdani were the Democratic nominee, his general election prospects appear weaker, with 35 percent support compared to 16 percent for Sliwa, 15 percent for Adams, and 6 percent for Walden.
Other polls have found Cuomo in a strong position. A SurveyUSA poll conducted in mid-May 2025 showed that he was the top choice among likely Democratic voters for the upcoming June primary, with 43 percent support. He held a solid lead over his closest competitor, Mamdani, who had 11 percent. Cuomo’s advantage extended across all major demographics and regions, with particularly strong support from moderate Democrats. His lead suggested he could secure the nomination outright in the first round of ranked-choice voting.
Meanwhile, Mamdani’s backing was concentrated among progressives, but many voters remained unfamiliar with him.
According to a Marist Poll conducted between May 1 and 8 among 3,383 likely Democratic primary voters, Cuomo was the first choice of 37 percent of respondents, including those who were undecided but leaning toward a candidate.
Mamdani trailed significantly with 18 percent, followed by Adams with 9 percent, Lander with 8 percent, Stringer with 4 percent, and State Senator Zellnor Myrie with 3 percent.
The poll showed that Cuomo held a broad and geographically strong lead. He performed best in the Bronx (50 percent), and posted strong showings in Queens and Staten Island (48 percent each). He also led in Manhattan and was tied with Mamdani in Brooklyn.
His support was especially strong among older voters and communities of color. Nearly half of voters over 45 backed him, along with 50 percent of Black voters and 41 percent of Latinos. Mamdani, by contrast, led among younger voters and very liberal Democrats.
A separate Data for Progress poll conducted in March showed similar results: Cuomo led with 39 percent, Mamdani with 15 percent, Lander with 8 percent, and Eric Adams with 7 percent.
Across every poll, Cuomo has had a strong lead among women. In the final round of the Emerson poll, Cuomo led among men by just 2 points but held a commanding 16-point lead among women. The Marist poll similarly showed Cuomo with a 13-point edge among men and a 23-point advantage with women. SurveyUSA’s results echoed this trend, with Cuomo ahead by 30 points among men and an even larger 35-point lead among women. These consistent gender gaps suggest that female voters could play a decisive role in determining the outcome of the primary.
Last week, Cuomo accused The New York Times of election interference after the Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into whether he lied to Congress about his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Republicans initially referred Cuomo to the DOJ for prosecution in October, when Democrats were in power. The department did not act on the referral at the time.
But according to the Times, the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Washington, D.C., initiated the inquiry about a month ago after Republicans renewed their request.
Current Mayor Adams has exited the Democratic primary and is now seeking reelection through independent ballot lines.
On the Republican side, Guardian Angels founder Curtis Sliwa is the party’s nominee, while attorney Jim Walden is mounting his own independent campaign.
What People Are Saying
Cuomo spokesperson Rich Azzopardi told Newsweek: “He’s working hard to earn every vote and we’ve been humbled by the breadth of support from every corner of this great city.”
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said: “Cuomo has led in the polls since early 2025, but Mamdani has surged, gaining 23 points and winning second-choice votes nearly 2-to-1, cutting Cuomo’s ranked-choice lead from 12 points to 9 points. With four weeks to go, the question is whether Cuomo can run out the clock, or if he needs to win over second-choice voters to hold off Mamdani’s momentum.
“Cuomo’s strongest support comes from Black voters (74 percent), voters over 50 (66 percent), and women (58 percent to 42 percent). Mamdani leads among voters under 50 with 61 percent, and holds an edge among white voters (57 percent to 43 percent) and college-educated voters (58 percent to 42 percent).”
Marist pollster Lee Miringoff said: “Right now Cuomo is on a path to success. Someone is going to have to bring him down.”
What Happens Next
Voting in the primary is set to begin on June 14.
The post Zohran Mamdani’s Chances of Beating Andrew Cuomo in New York Primary: Polls appeared first on Newsweek.
