Tropical Storm Alvin became the first named storm system of 2025 when it formed in the Eastern Pacific on Thursday morning.
Why It Matters
The Eastern Pacific hurricane season began on May 15, two weeks earlier than the Central Pacific and Atlantic hurricane seasons, which start on June 1. Each hurricane season runs through November 30.
National Hurricane Center (NHC) experts have been monitoring the disturbance in the Eastern Pacific since last week. The disturbance became a tropical depression on Wednesday afternoon and strengthened further into a tropical storm on Thursday morning.
What to Know
As of the most recent update issued by the NHC, Tropical Storm Alvin has maximum sustained windspeeds of 60 mph. A tropical storm officially becomes a Category 1 hurricane when windspeeds reach 74 mph.
Although the Eastern Pacific hurricane season has already begun, Tropical Storm Alvin is a little earlier than average, AccuWeather senior meteorologist Bob Larson told Newsweek.
The average date for the first tropical storm to form in the Eastern Pacific hurricane season is June 10. Although Alvin is earlier than average, it is not “unprecedented,” Larson said. The earliest storm to form was May 9, in 2021.
The NHC is not anticipating Tropical Storm Alvin to become a hurricane, although AccuWeather reported it’s possible the storm could strengthen briefly into a Category 1 hurricane before it begins to weaken as it nears Mexico’s western coast.
“Some additional strengthening is expected through early tomorrow, but weakening is expected to begin by late Friday,” an NHC public advisory for the storm said.
Alvin is forecast to remain a tropical storm through Saturday as it takes a slight turn toward Mexico before weakening into a tropical depression by Sunday. The biggest impact will likely be heavy rain across parts of Mexico.
NOAA is forecasting a below-normal hurricane season for the Eastern Pacific with 12 to 18 named storms. Of those, five to 10 will likely become hurricanes, and two to five could develop into major hurricanes.
An average season produces 15 tropical storms and four hurricanes, AccuWeather reported. Larson told Newsweek that AccuWeather is forecasting the coming season will be more active than last year, which saw 14 named storms.
What People Are Saying
Larson told Newsweek: “We are anticipating at least some strengthening as we go through the night tonight and into tomorrow morning.”
NHC said in a public advisory: “Swells generated by Alvin will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.”
What Happens Next
Another tropical storm update will be released by the NHC on Thursday night. People should follow local guidance when it comes to rip currents and dangerous ocean swells in Baja California and on Mexico’s western coast.
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