Conservative commentator Charlie Kirk’s recent endorsement of Representative Andy Biggs’ campaign for governor in Arizona could have major implications for the GOP primary of the critical election, according to one pollster.
Why It Matters
Arizona’s gubernatorial race will be one of the most closely watched elections of the 2026 midterms when Republicans are hoping to unseat incumbent Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs, who narrowly defeated Republican Kari Lake in the 2022 election. Arizona is a crucial swing state that backed President Donald Trump by nearly six points in the 2024 presidential race—his strongest showing of any swing state.
A new poll from Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) points to a close race in the general election next November and suggests Kirk could have sway with some Republican primary voters.
What to Know
Kirk, who had been floated as a potential gubernatorial candidate for Republicans, endorsed Biggs earlier in May rather than running for the office himself. David Byler, Chief of Research at NPI, wrote in a poll report that his decision could boost the conservative congressman’s campaign in a tight race.
“The moment Kirk stepped out and backed Biggs, the math changed. Biggs now has the opportunity to inherit a young, digital-savvy base that Kirk built, which could be decisive,” he said, noting that he could be getting an “army” of support from Kirk’s organization, Turning Point USA.
The poll, conducted earlier in May but just released this week, showed Republican Karrin Taylor Robson leading the primary field with 24 percent. Biggs and Kirk followed, each receiving 17 percent support, while Treasurer Kimberly Yee received six percent of the vote. An additional 37 percent were still not sure how they would vote.
Kirk and Yee have both passed on running since the poll was conducted.
It surveyed 1,026 registered voters from May 12 to May 16, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.76 percentage points.
Although it was rumored that Kirk could run, and he was included in early polls of the race, Kirk never made public comments indicating he planned to do so. The report noted that Biggs and Kirk shared an “ideological profile” and had “overlapping favorability,” so many of Kirk’s supporters may rally behind Biggs after the endorsement.
Robson ran for governor in 2022 against Lake, positioning herself as a more mainstream conservative, but ultimately lost the primary after Trump backed Lake. The poll noted that she has advantages as well, including a fundraising lead and the highest net favorability among Republicans.
In the general election, Hobbs held a slight lead over both Robson and Biggs, leading each by a 2-point margin. In a matchup against Robson, 41 percent said they’d back Hobbs and 39 percent Robson. When asked about the scenario where Biggs becomes the nominee, 38 percent said they’d vote for him compared to 40 percent who would back Hobbs.
Newsweek reached out to each of the campaigns and Turning Point USA for comment via email and press contact form.
What People Are Saying
Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO, said in the poll report: “Katie Hobbs has a foundation, but not a fortress. With Republicans energized and the Trump factor still strong, this is shaping up to be a close and unpredictable race this early on.”
Trump wrote on social media after Biggs announced his run, endorsing both him and Robson in the primary: “When Andy Biggs decided to run for Governor, quite unexpectedly, I had a problem — Two fantastic candidates, two terrific people, two wonderful champions, and it is therefore my Great Honor TO GIVE MY COMPLETE AND TOTAL ENDORSEMENT TO BOTH.”
What Happens Next
Arizona’s gubernatorial primary will be held August 4, 2026, and the general election is slated for November 3, 2026. The Cook Political Report currently classifies the race as a pure tossup.
The post How Charlie Kirk Reshaped Arizona’s Gubernatorial Race: Pollster appeared first on Newsweek.
