With due to , analysts warn that the winner of the vote will immediately face challenges in the international arena from friends and rivals alike.
Seoul is already under of , its most important ally against the regime in North Korea.
At the same time, South Korea aims to keep essential trade ties with US rival China. Furthermore, its relations with another regional player — Japan — could show cracks depending on the outcome of the vote.
Most recent polls put in favor with 49.2% of voters, significantly ahead of his , at 36.8%. The PPP party’s image has been tarnished by now-impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol who is on trial over his attempt to impose martial law in December.
Kim has been narrowing the gap, however, and a third party, the conservative New Reform Party, currently boasts 10.3% support, possibly giving it a say in the make-up of the new government.
“The winner is going to face a lot of big issues very quickly,” said Choo Jae-woo, a professor of foreign policy at Kyung Hee University in Seoul.
“My feeling is that the incoming president will have to first of all engage with Trump and hope to take the rest of his policies from there,” he told DW. “For Korea, the most serious worry is the tariffs on exports to the US and the changing role of the military alliance, including the US forces in Korea.”
Dealing with an ‘incoherent’ US
Seoul is in talks with Washington on trade and there have been suggestions that a deal could be within reach, although it is not clear whether all tariffs will be lifted.
The question of US troops stationed in South Korea is even more delicate, with reports in recent weeks suggesting that the Pentagon is considering withdrawing more than 4,000 troops from the present 28,000 stationed.
The US has played down the reports — but unless Seoul paid more for their presence.
Removing any troops from the peninsula would hand a strategic win for both North Korea and China, Choo said.
Dan Pinkston, a professor of international relations at the Seoul campus of Troy University, said Seoul is struggling to manage the “incoherent” decisions that are emerging from Washington on trade and security matters.
“Whoever comes in has to find a way to manage those relationships with the US and return to some sort of predictability or stability as they are all over the place at the moment and that makes planning and moving forward impossible,” he said.
The threat from the North
will also be a major concern for a new administration, after President Yoon’s government decided to effectively ignore Pyongyang and halt most efforts to communicate with Kim Jong Un. During Yoon’s tenure, Pyongyang forged an alliance with Russia that saw . Moscow allegedly returned the favor by giving North Korea fuel and military technology that was previously beyond its reach due to UN sanctions.
Bolstered by the alliance with Moscow, and constructed additional defenses on the already heavily fortified border.
“If Lee wins, I am sure he will try to reset ties with the North, but it takes two to tango, and I think it is very unlikely that Kim will do anything to reciprocate,” said Pinkston. “Those bridges have been burned. Lee will try, but it will be very difficult.”
Choo agrees that Kim will continue to give the South “the cold shoulder” because Seoul is perceived as an ally of the US and still hostile to the North.
Consideration for China
Relations with Beijing are also tense, despite being South Korea’s top trading partner. Last year, China imported around $133 billion (€117.3 billion) of South Korean goods, or 19.5% of South Korea’s total exports, edging out the US with $128.4 and 18.8%.
But Choo points out that Seoul and Beijing are currently bickering over an old oil rig that China has placed within disputed waters in the Yellow Sea.
China claims the facility is part of a fishing project, which is permitted under an existing bilateral agreement, but South Korea fears it is being used to encroach further into the disputed waters and enforce Beijing’s claims to more sea territory.
“It is delicate and will put the president in a dilemma because Chinese Premier Xi Jinping is expected to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum that South Korea is hosting in Gyeongju later this year,” Choo pointed out.
“The new government will not want to stir up anti-Chinese sentiment out of concern that Xi might cancel his attendance at the summit,” he said. “The new president will on this issue as well be walking a very fine line.”
And then there is Japan
and South Korea enjoyed a relatively calm and forward-looking relationship with Yoon, in complete contrast to his predecessor, Moon Jae-in from the Democratic Party.
“Traditionally, the Democratic Party has favored China and North Korea and has often been anti-Japanese and sometimes even anti-US in its policies,” said Cha Mok-won, a researcher into Korean-Japanese politics at Ritsumeikan University in Kyoto.
As the current campaigns draw to a close, there is a strong possibility that Lee Jae-Myung, also from the Democratic Party, become the next president. Tokyo is concerned that ties will once again begin to deteriorate under Lee, especially if the new administration focuses on still painful history of .
Seoul-based professor Choo notes that one of the new president’s first major speeches will fall on August 15, the anniversary of Korea’s liberation at the end of WWII.
“If the new president is ‘thorny’ in his first speech, that will set the tone for the rest of his administration,” said Choo.
Edited by: Darko Janjevic
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