When it comes to ending the war in Ukraine, President Donald Trump’s statements and social media posts have become meaningless.
Receding chances for a ceasefire and peace deal soon will depend instead on whether he finally finds the steel to reinforce his rhetorical lashing of President Vladimir Putin over the weekend with action.
The Kremlin is betting he won’t.
It dismissed Trump’s frustration with the most intense Russian drone attacks on Ukraine as a symptom of “emotional overload.” And experience suggests Putin can get away with calling the US president’s bluff. After all, Trump’s Truth Social critique of the Russian leader as “crazy” on Monday was leavened with a characteristic rebuke of the victim — Ukraine and President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Still, the intensifying Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilians appear to be a deliberate Russian test for Trump, a week after his hyped call with Putin, which made no progress toward peace despite the White House spin.
There are two routes Trump can take, assuming he’s ready to abandon the embarrassing position of being constantly played by Putin.
He could impose new sanctions against Russia, which he previously argued would hamper diplomacy. He told reporters in New Jersey on Sunday this was “absolutely” a consideration. Trump could also save lives in Ukraine by emulating his predecessor Joe Biden and asking Congress to approve new shipments of arms and ammunition to the country.
But this option would mean a massive turnaround that would be embarrassing politically, since Trump’s opposition to spending billions of dollars in Ukraine is a foundation of his second presidency. And it would mean the president accepting that, as was the case for many of his recent predecessors, his belief that he could manage Putin was flawed.
There is another possibility — one that Ukraine and its European allies fear. Trump could throw up his hands and argue that neither side wants peace and it’s time for the US to walk away. Russia would then press on with its war of attrition and attacks on civilians. Its land grab would be validated, creating a disastrous precedent for European security and US disengagement.
This isn’t an academic prospect. An isolationist streak running through the MAGA movement meant that recent hints by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance that the US could step back seem like more than a mere negotiating tactic.
And one way to read Trump’s Truth Social post on Monday was as a smokescreen for a US withdrawal. “This is a War that would never have started if I were President. This is Zelenskyy’s, Putin’s, and Biden’s War, not ‘Trump’s,’” the president wrote.
The case for tougher US action
There’s one good reason why Trump might change his mind: His credibility is on the line after his bold predictions that he could end the war in 24 hours were exposed as a fantasy.
One option would be for Trump to introduce the secondary sanctions on Russia he has sometimes floated. These would target financial institutions, companies and other entities that continue to do business with Moscow.
Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham and Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal have a new bill that would impose stiff sanctions on nations that still engage with Russia. This could hurt US adversaries such as China. But it could also disrupt Trump’s relations with allies like India — a big customer of Russian cut-price oil. The senators already have 81 co-sponsors, meaning the bill could be quickly passed if Trump wanted, sending a tough message to Russia.
Trump could also boost Ukraine’s air defenses by donating or selling to Kyiv more Patriot missiles to combat cruise missiles that are complementing the murderous nightly drone barrage.
The dangers of escalating the war into a more direct confrontation between Russia and the West should not be dismissed. This was a major consideration for Biden, too, and the ex-president’s slow testing of Russian red lines was a constant frustration for his critics. But Trump’s caution makes Biden look like a hawk.
Still, perhaps Putin has finally pushed Trump into a long-delayed epiphany.
“There have been statements and expressions of irritation and frustration coming from President Trump and others in the administration before, even threats of sanctions, but so far nothing,” former US Ambassador to Ukraine William Taylor told Isa Soares on CNN International on Monday. “So, the question will be, is this time enough to have these sanctions imposed? And not just the sanctions; there has to be support for the Ukrainian military as well.”
Retired US Army Major Mike Lyons thinks Trump may be creating political space for himself.
“Who’s that (Truth Social) message for? (He is) obviously saying that to Vladimir Putin, but I think he’s selling that to the American public to gauge whether or not it would be popular for him to get more involved and have the country more involved inside Ukraine right now,” Lyons told CNN’s Brianna Keilar. “I’d like to think that what he thought was as simple equation back when he first took over … he’s seeing now it’s a very difficult one to solve.”
America’s European allies are closely watching to see whether Trump follows through.
French President Emmanuel Macron said during a trip to Vietnam on Monday that after recently talking with Trump, he believes the US leader now understands that while “President Putin told him by telephone he was ready for peace” — and said the same to US envoys — “he was lying to them.”
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz also sharpened his tone. He said there are now no limits on the range Ukraine could fire European weapons — meaning they could now strike deep into Russia. It was not immediately clear, however, whether he was referring to a new operational shift.
The allies seem to sense a moment when Trump’s mind could be changed after months of seeing him undermine their own efforts to force Putin to accept an immediate ceasefire.
But as usual, no one can be sure which way he’ll jump. One European diplomat said it was still difficult to say if the president’s condemnations of Putin really signaled a new approach but noted that Europe was obviously interested in more sanctions.
What the Kremlin believes about Trump
There are two problems with the notion that Trump has finally seen the light about the Russian leader.
First, he’s never been keen to criticize Putin.
Second, the Russian leader’s ruthlessness in waging war is hardly new, three years after an unprovoked and illegal invasion that has killed tens of thousands of civilians and sparked international war crimes arrest warrants.
This is why it’s risky to take Trump’s weekend rhetoric at face value. His comments served a political purpose in deflecting questions from journalists about his views on the latest atrocity in Ukraine. And he got good headlines on Memorial Day for getting tough on Putin. But recent history shows that once the moment passes, the president often moves onto something else.
“Talk is cheap, and we have been waiting for action,” former senior US national intelligence official Beth Sanner told CNN’s Phil Mattingly on Monday. “You have to pressure the party that’s a problem.”
“Putin doesn’t believe that Trump is going to follow through,” Sanner said.
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