The potential winners and losers from Trump’s tax bill

Happy Friday! Let me offer a penny for your thoughts while I still can. The Treasury Department placed its final order for the coin best known for being stuck to the bottom of your car’s cup holders.

In today’s big story, we’re looking at the impact Trump’s tax bill could have on your wallet and why bond investors remain up in arms about it.

What’s on deck

Markets: Jamie Dimon isn’t feeling too optimistic about the economy.

Tech: We have some advice for Jony Ive about his future work with OpenAI.

Business: The creative ways companies avoid using the word “tariff.”

But first, one bill to rule them all.

If this was forwarded to you, sign up here.

The big story

Trump takes on taxes

For President Donald Trump’s “big beautiful bill” and your wallet: Is beauty only skin deep?

The tax bill passed the House on Thursday and is now headed to the Senate. And while it’s still subject to change, BI’s Ayelet Sheffey examined how it could impact Americans’ finances.

Here’s a look at some of the potential winners and losers of the bill in its current form.

Winners

Service workers: The legislation would eliminate taxes on tips and overtime wages.

Parents: The current child-tax credit would be extended through 2028 and bumped up from $2,000 to $2,500. There’s also the “Trump account” that includes a $1,000 deposit from the government for babies born in the US from 2025 through 2028.

Residents of states with high taxes: The cap on state and local tax deductions, known as SALT, would increase from $10,000 to $40,000. The issue’s been a source of GOP infighting.

Losers

People with student debt: Existing income-driven plans would be eliminated in favor of two options. One would be a standard payment plan. The other offers loan forgiveness after 360 payments for borrowers based on their income level. (The two new options aren’t that much worse than borrowers’ current options, but the bill shows more loan forgiveness is a long shot.)

EV owners: Say goodbye to those tax credits. And while we are at it, let’s add a $250 annual registration fee. Somewhat relatedly, tax credits for homeowners installing solar panels or energy-efficient heat pumps are on the chopping block.

People on Medicaid and SNAP: The monthly work requirements for many recipients would rise. Elder Americans won’t get a pass either, as the work requirement for SNAP benefits would extend to adults age 55 to 64.

One group not on the above list would argue it’s the biggest loser from Trump’s bill: bond investors.

“Bond vigilantes” have been selling off Treasurys and sending yields spiking in protest of the bill.

So what’s their beef? BI’s Jennifer Sor has a nice rundown on the group’s biggest gripes.

The issue centers on the bill widening the US government’s deficit (how much revenue is brought in compared to what it spends money on). At last count, that number reached $1.8 trillion. One estimate sees that growing by $4 trillion over 10 years under the new bill.

A bigger deficit means more borrowing, which isn’t good for the economy’s growth prospects. The more the US has to worry about paying off debt, the less it can spend on services or benefits for Americans.

And if the debt and deficit keep growing, some investors might wonder whether the government can actually make good on its debts (see: Treasurys).

3 things in markets

1. Beware “global financial market Armageddon,” a famed Wall Street bear warns. Societe Generale strategist Albert Edwards fears the worst as Japanese bond yields spike. Here’s how the bond yield surge in Tokyo could affect the US.

2. Jamie Dimon says don’t get too comfy. The US is still at risk of a fate worse than recession — stagflation — he told Bloomberg on Thursday. It’s not a problem that can be ignored either. “I think it’s a mistake to think we can go through all the things we’re going through and the volatility itself will come down,” he added.

3. Would you like an AI video with that research note? In response to client requests for more videos, UBS is using AI to generate avatars of its analysts that explain their notes. Thirty-six analysts, or about 5% of UBS’ total, have volunteered to take part, and the bank has plans for more.

3 things in tech

1. The ins and outs of Google I/O. The search behemoth’s annual conference was packed with updates, from Gemini’s Chrome integration to its nascent Smart Glasses. As Google preps for the AI era, here are the six main takeaways from I/O.

2. Legal-tech darling Harvey goes into the blue Azure. Harvey agreed to spend $150 million on Microsoft’s cloud services over two years, according to an internal email seen by BI. The startup, which builds chatbots and agents for legal services, is scaling up and expanding.

3. Dear Jony Ive, please don’t give us a voice-controlled device. The former Apple designer and Sam Altman have been teasing new AI hardware following OpenAI’s purchase of Ive’s startup. BI’s Katie Notopoulos hopes the gadget won’t require talking in public.

3 things in business

1. The jet-setting rich. Nearly half of summer travelers this year earn over $100,000, according to a Deloitte survey. Luxury travel is booming, but if you don’t have deep pockets, you may find yourself cutting back during trips — if you go at all. The wealth gap may not last, though.

2. Walmart takes a page from the Big Tech playbook. The retailer is laying off 1,500 people to “remove layers and complexity,” effectively flattening management. Companies like Meta and Amazon have led the trend to boost efficiency.

3. Don’t say the T-word. Instead of “tariffs,” businesses might say they have to raise prices because of “sourcing costs” or “supply-chain issues.” Tariff-induced panic buying took off in April, but that burst of activity is winding down, Bank of America credit card data shows. That’s bad news for the economy.

In other news

• Now they’re being ordered home.The big winners of the loneliness epidemic: nice guys with jobs.
• I’m on the verge of finishing my dream course at Harvard Business School. With Trump’s crackdown on foreign students, I don’t know if I’ll be let back on campus.
• Big Law firm says its Trump deal is nothing more than a 364-word Truth Social post.
• Kid Cudi says Diddy broke into his home, unwrapped his family’s Christmas gifts, and shut his dog in the bathroom.
• Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky says there’s a ‘silver lining’ for people starting businesses in a choppy economy.
• Hinge Health just broke open the digital health IPO market. Here’s who’s getting rich.

What’s happening today

• NATO Parliamentary Assembly spring session.

The Business Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Grace Lett, editor, in Chicago. Amanda Yen, associate editor, in New York. Lisa Ryan, executive editor, in New York. Ella Hopkins, associate editor, in London. Elizabeth Casolo, fellow, in Chicago.

The post The potential winners and losers from Trump’s tax bill appeared first on Business Insider.