Recent polling data indicates that Representative Elise Stefanik, a New York Republican, could mount a challenge to New York Governor Kathy Hochul in the state’s 2026 gubernatorial election.
Why It Matters
For decades, New York has been considered a reliably Democratic state in gubernatorial elections. Current polling that places a Republican contender in a statistical dead heat with the Democratic incumbent signals a potentially significant shift.
The findings reflect broader dissatisfaction among New Yorkers with the state’s leadership and opens the door for Republicans to make substantial inroads in traditionally blue strongholds. These developments could have statewide and national consequences, influencing not only the direction of state policy but also the dynamics of the 2026 midterm elections and party strategies nationwide.
What To Know
According to the independent survey by right-leaning firm co/efficient, which was conducted between May 1-2 among 1,163 likely New York voters, Hochul is ahead by just 1 percentage point over Stefanik—43 to 42 percent. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.3 percentage points, making it a statistical tie. About 15 percent of voters said they were undecided.
The poll reported sharply negative numbers for Hochul’s approval rating, sitting at just 30 percent approved with 57 percent disapproving. Only 23 percent of respondents said Hochul deserves to be reelected, while 63 percent preferred a new candidate.
“[Hochul] wasn’t reelected by a large margin back in 2022,” Shawn Donahue, a political science professor at the University of Buffalo, told Newsweek. “So, I think that Republicans probably see that and think she could be vulnerable. Of course, she might have primary challenges, too.”
In a hypothetical GOP primary, Stefanik received 56 percent of support while Representative Mike Lawler received 9 percent and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman received 8 percent.
A Siena College poll that was conducted between May 12-15 and released on Tuesday showed similar results, with only 36 percent of registered voters in New York saying they would reelect Hochul and 55 percent wanting someone new. Among Democrats, support was higher but not overwhelming, with 51 percent favoring Hochul and 38 percent preferring a different candidate.
The poll surveyed 805 New York registered voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percent.
By virtue of President Donald Trump‘s endorsements of Lawler and Blakeman for their respective reelections, Donahue said it seems like the president is potentially trying to clear the field for Stefanik to run for governor.
But while Trump came closer in 2024 to winning New York than any Republican presidential candidate since George H.W. Bush, Donahue notes it was still a double-digit loss. Should Stefanik, who is arguably closer to Trump than 2022 GOP gubernatorial candidate Lee Zeldin, be the nominee she must differentiate herself enough from a figure like Trump.
“Trump still lost by 12 points,” he said. “It was a massive swing towards Republicans, but the biggest problem that Republicans face is there’s just a lot more Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters [in New York].
“One of the things that helped contribute to the margin being considerably closer in 2022 [6 points between Hochul and Zeldin] was that Democratic turnout around the state and especially in parts of New York City was pretty bad, and Republican turnout—particularly on Long Island—was pretty good.”
However, Stefanik’s favorability could become a problem for her. The Siena College poll found she had an overall favorability rating of 25 percent and only 45 percent of Republicans had a favorable rating of her.
T.J. McCormack, a Republican communications specialist and radio host in Westchester County, New York, told Newsweek that the notion of Stefanik or any other Republican winning a statewide gubernatorial race remains “an uphill battle.”
“New York is like the nation: a very red mass with large blue population centers at the edges in Buffalo, Albany and New York City/Westchester County that usually tip the scales to the Democrats,” he said. “One number is crucial, and that is the elusive 30 percent. If a Republican can pull off that percentage of the vote in NYC, that could be the win.
“President Trump over-performed in the city in 2024, so perhaps the possible could become reality for the right Republican. Is that Stefanik? Some people like Blakeman, others are firmly in the camp of one of the GOP’s rising stars, Mike Lawler. Buckle up!”
Independent polling ahead of the 2022 gubernatorial race had shown Hochul and Zeldin in a statistical tie close to Election Day before Hochul ultimately was victorious.
Republicans, while Trump was in his first term as president, suffered badly in the 2018 “blue wave” midterm elections. Former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, who later resigned following sexual harassment allegations, easily won his third term while Republicans lost power in the state Senate. Cuomo is currently running for mayor of New York City.
What People Are Saying
Denny Salas, former Washington, D.C., consultant, told Newsweek: “Anything can happen in politics, and a Republican like Elise Stefanik could have an opportunity to win in New York. I never buy the inevitability arguments when it pertains to party identification enrollments in a particular state like ours. To win, Stefanik will need to secure 35 to 40 percent of NYC, dominate Long Island, penetrate Westchester, and dominate the rest of New York in the rural areas to defeat Hochul.”
What Happens Next?
No Republican has officially announced a 2026 gubernatorial bid as of now. With a significant portion of voters undecided about how they’d vote and with no opinion of Stefanik, the race could shift.
The post Republicans’ Chances of Flipping New York Governor Seat, According to Polls appeared first on Newsweek.
