Taiwan is confident that the United States will remain a formidable power in Asia and can deter China from attempting an invasion of the island, Taiwan’s defense minister said, while recognizing the urgency of strengthening the island’s own defenses.
Some of President Trump’s words and actions on Taiwan — raising tariffs, demanding that it drastically raise military spending, and accusing Taiwan of stealing the U.S. lead in making semiconductors — have magnified doubts in Taiwan about whether the United States would step in if China attacked the island. Beijing claims the island democracy is its territory and has said unification is inevitable, by force if necessary.
But China can be held in check by the United States’ forces and alliances across Asia, and by reminding Beijing of the terrible economic cost that a war would exact, Wellington Koo, Taiwan’s defense minister, said in his most extensive interview since taking the job a year ago.
“If China can be made to understand that the potential costs would be extremely, extremely high, then that will make it extremely hard for it to make a decision” for war, Mr. Koo said in the 80-minute interview on Wednesday with news outlets including The New York Times.
“That’s what the United States also thinks — that preserving the security of the Indo-Pacific, especially the stability of the Taiwan Strait, by using deterrence to avoid war, is in our shared interest,” Mr. Koo said, referring the region where Taiwan is. He later added: “Of course, the Trump administration emphasizes ‘America first.’ But we believe that on security issues, it also emphasizes Indo-Pacific first.”
Taiwan would be deeply vulnerable without U.S. arms sales and security backing. When Washington switched diplomatic relations from Taiwan to Beijing in 1979, American lawmakers pushed through legislation that says the United States should provide defensive arms to Taiwan and should have the forces to intervene if Taiwan is attacked. (The law does not say the United States must intervene.)
Mr. Koo, 66, a former national security adviser whose Chinese name is Koo Li-Hsiung, is overseeing the Taiwanese government’s efforts to upgrade its relatively small military into a force strong and nimble enough to fend off threats from China, partly by deploying more drones, unmanned sea vessels and highly mobile missiles.
Many officials and experts in Taiwan and abroad say that the island needs to move faster to counter Beijing’s relentless military expansion.
China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has ordered the People’s Liberation Army to be strong enough to take Taiwan by 2027, senior U.S. officials have said. Observers say Mr. Xi does not have a timetable for invasion and would prefer to absorb Taiwan without a war. Asked how he assessed the threat, Mr. Koo said the dangers were rising, but had not reached the level that meant invasion could be imminent.
“We believe that it falls between medium intensity and high intensity at this point,“ Mr. Koo said, citing the Taiwanese military’s threat-level index, “but the indicators aren’t sufficient yet to conclude that there is an intent to attack Taiwan.”
Partly prodded by demands from Mr. Trump, Taiwan has promised to increase military spending to more than 3 percent of GDP, after initially setting it at 2.45 percent of economic worth earlier this year. Some experts say Taiwan’s military is becoming more effective.
“The trajectory is in the right direction. It’s now a question of being able to move fast enough,” Ely Ratner, a former U.S. assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs under President Biden, said of Taiwan’s military changes during a recent visit to the island.
Taiwan legislators are set to debate the bigger increase in military spending in the next session of the legislature, which is dominated by lawmakers from the opposition. They are generally are less confrontational toward China, and skeptical of some of the government’s military projects, such as a Taiwanese-built submarine.
Even with the extra funds, Taiwan faces bottlenecks in buying the right weapons and keeping enough troops with the skills to operate them. Taiwan has paid billions of dollars for U.S. weapons that have not been delivered, sometimes for years, because of a backlog. This month, Taiwan staged its first live-fire test of the high mobility artillery rocket system, or HIMARS, bought from the United States. Taiwan placed its first orders for them in 2020.
“Part of the challenge now is the United States’ defense industrial base, whether it can cope with the multiple demands being made on it,” Mr. Ratner said in an interview. “Whereas a few years ago the United States was pushing hard for Taiwan to do more, now they are fully committed, and the United States needs to be able to match that in support.”
Last year, Mr. Koo put an end to bayonet training and goose-step marching for Taiwanese soldiers and promised that Taiwan’s annual military exercises would be made more realistic.
“The national military is at a crucial time of both challenges and transformation, responding to the trends in Taiwan’s security and changes in the way of modern warfare,” Mr. Koo said, referring to Taiwan’s forces. “Practical training is the foundation for forming combat capabilities.”
Mr. Koo has critics who say that Taiwan’s efforts to upgrade military preparations are too superficial and lag China’s. Many U.S. officials and experts have urged Taiwan to shift more decisively to newer weapons, such as drones, which are less expensive and more mobile, possibly offering a way to stymie China’s bigger forces.
“You have to enhance your skills, professionalism, and your mind-set. Also, equally important, those drones, unmanned boats and so on, they require effective, efficient, precision communication,” said Andrew Nien-Dzu Yang, who served as a senior defense ministry official over a decade ago when the opposition Nationalist Party was in power. “They have this kind of concept, but the problem is how to implement it. How can it be realized?”
Mr. Koo, who started his career as a lawyer, made the case that Taiwan was on the way to mastering “asymmetric” warfare strengths that could ward off China. His ministry has established an innovation agency focused on drones and anti-drone warfare, artificial intelligence applications and improved communications and cybersecurity, he said.
President Lai Ching-te has said that a big proportion of Taiwan’s increased military spending would go to buying American weapons — a promise that may please Mr. Trump, who wants Taiwan to ease its trade surplus with the United States.
“Of course, we also hope that the United States can speed up delivery,” Mr. Koo said.
Amy Chang Chien is a reporter and researcher for The Times in Taipei, covering Taiwan and China.
Chris Buckley, the chief China correspondent for The Times, reports on China and Taiwan from Taipei, focused on politics, social change and security and military issues.
Meaghan Tobin covers business and tech stories in Asia with a focus on China and is based in Taipei.
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