The U.S. has seen a fall in job vacancies since President Donald Trump‘s tariffs took effect earlier this year.
Why It Matters
A decrease in job openings typically indicates that employers are hiring less, which can be a sign of an economic slowdown, business uncertainty, or reduced demand for labor. For job seekers, it becomes more difficult to find employment, and wage growth may slow due to less competition for workers.
What To Know
The Robert Walters Global Jobs Index, published on May 20, found there was a 16.2 percent month-on-month decline in professional job vacancies in the U.S. between March and April, due in part to President Donald Trump’s wide-ranging trade tariffs. On April 2—a day he dubbed “Liberation Day”—he announced a minimum 10-percent tariff on all U.S. imports and higher individualized rates on some countries.
“For most employers, hiring additional employees is a luxury when tariffs are raising operating costs, lowering demand, and could potentially keep inflation and interest rates elevated,” Noah Yosif, chief economist at American Staffing Association, told Newsweek.
“For all these reasons, employers are keeping their cash close to weather the tariffs and their impact on the economy making additional headcount a secondary priority.”
Usha Haley, Barton distinguished chair in international business at Wichita State University, said the drop in vacancies can be attributed to the U.S. economy shrinking earlier this year, contracting to 0.3 percent annually, which was “a huge drop from the 2.4-percent growth at the end of 2024.”
“Trade wars, geopolitical uncertainty, inflation concerns, budget deficits at all-time highs, with no visible plans to tackle these issues, have all contributed to the heightened uncertainty,” she explained to Newsweek. “Investors need concrete reassurances, and that has not yet been forthcoming.”
Haley also warned that the findings are indicative of a potential recession.
Concerns of a recession have been intensified by the decision by Moody’s to strip the U.S. of its triple-A credit rating for the first time in more than a century, due to mounting government debt and rising interest expenses.
However, a recent tariffs breakthrough with China—which had a staggering 145 percent levy placed on imports into the U.S.—has somewhat dampened these fears. Both countries agreed to roll back tariffs for a 90-day period starting May 14.
What People Are Saying
Usha Haley, Barton distinguished chair in international business at Wichita State University, told Newsweek: “We are currently in the midst of heightened uncertainty on so many fronts, which always dampens corporate expansion and hiring,” she said. “In short, we have the settings for a perfect storm on the horizon, and even perhaps a recession, though the risks of the R word are now widely seen as less than 50 percent.”
What Happens Next
Following the reduced tariff announcement, investment bank JPMorgan also lowered its recession risk score to below 50 percent.
“The administration’s recent dialing down of some of the more draconian tariffs placed on China should reduce the risk that the U.S. economy slips into recession this year,” JPMorgan chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli said.
“We believe recession risks are still elevated, but now below 50 percent.”
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