As President Donald Trump seeks to reshape Washington’s foreign policy in the Middle East, the U.S. leader has increasingly looked to the head of a longtime ally who has emerged as one of the most influential voices in the region—and beyond.
Over the past week alone, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has proved himself a crucial player on several geopolitical fronts. Days after overseeing an end to a four-decade insurgency waged by the separatist Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), Erdogan was credited by Trump in convincing him to lift sanctions on Syria and even meet the country’s rebel-turned-interim leader, Ahmad al-Sharaa, during a high-profile visit to Saudi Arabia, the first foreign trip of Trump’s second presidency.
Turkey, officially known as Türkiye, went on to host high-stakes nuclear talks between Europe and Iran, along with elusive wartime discussions between Russia and Ukraine. The engagements came as Trump sought to lead diplomatic efforts on both issues and now finds himself aligning with the one leader seemingly capable of helping to advance his vision.
“Mr. Trump calls him a friend,” Cagri Erhan, Erdogan’s chief adviser and member of the Turkish presidency’s security and foreign policy council, told Newsweek. “And he wants him to be a key actor, both on the regional and global level, to cooperate with the United States under the Trump administration.”
“And I think both countries can mutually benefit in this new era,” Erhan said.
Erdogan’s Recipe for Success
Erhan credits Erdogan’s success to four factors that he argues constitutes a distinct blend of attributes that have contributed to his position as Türkiye’s most influential leader since Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, who founded the modern republic in 1923 after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire and the Turkish War of Independence.
“The first one, he is experienced, for more than 23 years now, he has been leading one of the top countries of NATO and one of the top economies among the 20 nations of the world,” Erhan said on the sidelines of the “Beyond Alliance: Rethinking US-Türkiye Relations in a Changing World” panel organized in New York by the Turkish presidency’s Directorate of Communications.
Emerging from humble beginnings in Istanbul, Erdogan launched his political career by rising through the ranks of several Islamist parties that clashed with his nation’s secular constitution before founding the Justice and Development Party (AKP) that ultimately propelled him to the premiership in 2003. He’s led the country ever since, securing the presidency in 2014, after which he empowered the once-ceremonial position and dissolved the role of prime minister altogether.
Having dealt with multiple U.S. presidents and various leaders from other nations, Erdogan “is well aware of every dynamic in the regional level and global level,” Erhan said. “He has been part of the tendencies and processes we have faced for a quarter of a century now.”
Erhan also argued that Erdogan was exceptionally “reliable,” and has “always kept his promises and pledges to allies and friendly countries.” Even among “some of the hostile countries,” Erhan said, “his reliability is very well respected.”
The Turkish president’s influence has granted him “a say in regional levels,” according to Erhan, putting him in a prime position to advance his goals in some of the most intractable conflicts in the world.
“When it comes to the Russia-Ukraine crisis, he wants not that two neighbors of Türkiye fight with each other and [wants them to] come to a table of peace,” Erhan said.
Despite overtures from numerous other nations, Türkiye has thus far proved to be the only country to successfully bring together the two parties to Europe’s deadliest conflict since World War II. Before the latest talks held Friday in Istanbul, Erdogan had managed to oversee negotiations between Russian and Ukrainian representatives in spring 2022, and that summer brokered a deal to allow the export of grain through the Black Sea.
By this time, Erdogan had already made seismic moves in several other regions. These include bolstering the internationally recognized government of Libya in Tripoli against its Benghazi-based rival, supporting Azerbaijan’s operations to reclaim the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh from Armenia-aligned separatists and maintaining aid to Syrian rebel groups who would later overthrow longtime President Bashar al-Assad, an ally of Iran and Russia, in December.
“When it comes to the regional cooperation in the Caucasus, he wants all these three Caucasus countries to contribute creation of a more stable and prosperous Caucasus region,” Erhan said. “When it comes to the Middle East, he has a say. He wants the region to be cleaned of terrorist organizations, etc.”
Finally, Erhan said, “he has a future prospect, a future assessment for the global level,” one in which the permanent seats of the United Nations Security Council are expanded beyond the current five, and reforms are pursued to achieve a “more equitable” international order that also narrows the gap of rich and poor worldwide.
“That’s why these four features make Erdogan a unique leader, not on the regional scale, but on the world scale,” Erhan said. “And I think Mr. Trump knows this.”
‘I Happen to Like Him, and He Likes Me’
Trump’s praise for Erdogan during his Middle East tour was only the latest example of the U.S. leader expressing admiration for his Turkish counterpart.
Shortly after Assad fell to a lightning advance by Syrian insurgents, Trump quickly gave more credit to Erdogan than the Turkish leader claimed for himself, calling him “a very smart guy and very tough.”
“I think Turkey is going to hold the key to Syria, actually,” Trump told reporters during a December 16 news conference just over a month before his inauguration. “I don’t think you’ve heard that from anybody else, but I’ve been pretty good at predicting.”
Trump’s approval was even more notable during an April 7 press briefing alongside the head of another top U.S. ally in the Middle East, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has increasingly clashed with Erdogan over the war in Gaza and civil war in Syria.
As the Israeli premier warned of growing Turkish influence in Syria under Sharaa’s new government amid ongoing Israeli military operations in the neighboring country, Trump had only warm words for Erdogan.
“I have a great relationship with a man named Erdogan. Have you heard of him? And I happen to like him, and he likes me,” Trump said, before going on to offer to mediate Netanyahu and Erdogan’s feud.
“Any problem that you have with Turkey, I think I can solve, I mean as long as you’re reasonable,” Trump told Netanyahu. “You have to be reasonable. We have to be reasonable.”
Thus far, the Israeli-Turkish dispute appears to have remained tense, despite recent talks held by the two sides in Azerbaijan. Meanwhile, signs of a rift between Trump and Netanyahu have grown more apparent in recent weeks.
Trump has pursued direct talks with the Palestinian Hamas movement to secure the release of a U.S.-Israeli hostage, struck a ceasefire deal with the Yemeni Ansar Allah movement, also known as the Houthis, that did not include the group’s strikes against Israel, and has proceeded with nuclear talks with Iran.
In another potential blow to Trump and Netanyahu’s once tight rapport, Axios reported Monday that Vice President JD Vance had canceled an upcoming trip to Israel amid concerns that the visit would signal support for Israel’s decision to renew operations in Gaza despite U.S. efforts to promote a ceasefire, citing an unnamed U.S. official.
Sinan Ulgen, former Turkish diplomat who is now senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, spoke to why he believed Turkey was gaining ground in the Trump administration’s calculus.
“In the Middle East, compared to Israel, Turkey has in reality more to add to U.S. foreign policy goals served by its ability and intent to contribute to state building, regional stabilization and economic development,” Ulgen told Newsweek.
“That is particularly clear in Syria,” he added, “where since the collapse of the Assad government, Ankara’s involvement has been critical to steer the new administration in Damascus in the direction of a more inclusive style of governance that would be instrumental in ensuring the long-term normalization of the country.”
Erdogan and Trump’s relationship, however, has not been without periods of tension.
The first Trump administration heavily pressured Ankara to release jailed pastor Andrew Brunson after his 2016 detention tied to a failed coup attempt that year in Turkey. He was ultimately released in 2018 in a move touted today by Trump as a sign of positive engagement with Erdogan, with whom the U.S. leader now says he has “never had a problem.”
Yet another episode unfolded in 2020, when the U.S. imposed sanctions against Turkey in line with the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) due to its purchase of the Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile system. The acquisition was linked to earlier disputes related to Turkey’s attempts to buy the U.S. Patriot system, but only intensified frictions, leading to Ankara being cut out of the F-35 fighter jet program.
But this issue also appears on its way to resolution under the second Trump administration. Speaking to reporters on Saturday, Erdogan said there has been a “softening in CAATSA.”
“With my friend Trump taking office, we have achieved a more open, more constructive and more sincere communication on these issues,” he said.
Ulgen agreed that Trump’s election was likely a win for U.S.-Türkiye ties, which had only continued to deteriorate under former U.S. President Joe Biden, who referred to the Turkish leader as an “autocrat” and went as far as to openly urge U.S. support for Erdogan’s opposition on the 2020 campaign trail.
“The change in administration has paved the path to a closer Turkey-U.S. cooperation in regional diplomacy,” Ulgen said. “With the Trump Administration, Turkey’s democratic scorecard stopped being a limiting factor for a deeper bilateral collaboration. Washington evaluated correctly that Ankara’s support would be critical to address some of the difficult regional challenges including Ukraine and Syria.”
Making Türkiye Great Again
For more than six centuries, Turkish influence reigned supreme across much of the Middle East under the rule of the Ottoman Empire. The multiethnic state, based in the former Byzantine capital of Constantinople—later renamed Istanbul by Atatürk—put an end to the last vestiges of the Romans to emerge as a global power until a long decline that saw its control and influence wane over holdings in the Balkans and North Africa, finally losing its grip over the Arab world after losing to the Entente in World War I.
But today, and for much of the 21st century, its successor state is back on the upswing, with a number of Erdogan’s supporters and detractors referring to his policies as a form of “neo-Ottomanism.” Though Erdogan and his inner circle have rejected this term, the Turkish leader has frequently made references to the Turkish people as “descendants of the Ottomans” when rallying support for the AKP.
James Jeffrey, former U.S. ambassador to Türkiye and previously Trump’s special presidential envoy for the U.S.-led coalition against the Islamic State militant group (ISIS), identified three reasons he felt responsible for Turkey having “dramatically increased its geostrategic clout over the past 25 years, roughly the period of Erdogan’s rule.”
“Beginning in 2000, the ‘unipolar’ period of American (supported by the EU) dominance faded, with Europe and America (mainly Europe) dropping in terms of global GDP [gross domestic product], anti-system states rising: Russia, China, Iran (until the past 18 months),” Jeffrey told Newsweek. “This all created options for, and raised the importance of, an aggressively active mid-sized state in a geographically critical location, i.e. Türkiye.”
Meanwhile, Jeffrey said, “Türkiye in the same period grew both relative to most other countries and in real terms: stability (one party in power); economic strength (tremendous export, services and industrial surge, entry into G-20); military—both strength of armed forces and willingness to use directly or indirectly in conflicts (Bayraktar drones, Ukraine closing Straits to Russia, Syria, Iraq, Somalia, Caucasus).”
He explained that “Erdogan pushed for a seat at every table while trying to resolve long-term conflicts” in these regions, while at the same time demonstrating “deft management of potential weak spots” at home, including criticism of his consolidation of power, economic woes and the PKK insurgency.
“‘By with through’ has been the motto of U.S. policy for over a decade,” Jeffrey said. “Türkiye due to all the above—its location, power, stability, and similar world view, combined with good relations between the two leaders, is an obvious partner.”
This is “despite some obvious downsides,” which Jeffrey noted include lingering questions of Erdogan’s commitment to democracy among members of Congress and other influential voices in Washington, as well as opposition from some communities with influence in the U.S., including among Armenian, Greek and Israeli interest groups. Ankara’s hedging of its Western alliances by maintaining ties with Moscow could also potentially prove complicating, Jeffrey pointed out.
Trump hinted mockingly at such domestic concerns in April, when the U.S. leader said “the press will get very angry” at his declaration of the mutual affinity between him and Erdogan.
Still, Jeffrey saw a “commonality of interest” between the two men, who he said share a “transactional not moralistic approach to issues, similar positions on Iran and Russia, all in contrast to America’s European partners.”
The Turkish Century
The worsening of Washington’s ties with European NATO allies since Trump’s return to power in January comes amid a broader battle for global leadership, a contest most often portrayed as being primarily fought between the U.S. and China, and more generally as between East and West.
With Turkey in the middle, both figuratively and literally, as Erdogan pointed in an interview with Newsweek last July, the Turkish leader has both invested in its NATO role and sought closer engagement with Europe, while simultaneously building ties with blocs led by China and Russia, namely BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
In October 2022, on the 99-year anniversary of his republic, Erdogan further outlined his ambitions by announcing the dawn of the “Century of Türkiye.”
Richard Outzen, retired U.S. Army colonel who served as a U.S. State Department civilian and military adviser and later at the office of the special representative for Syria under the first Trump administration, called Türkiye’s geopolitical rise and power projection “one of the top strategic developments of the 21st century.”
“The maturation of the country’s decades-long economic liberalization and internationalization, military reforms, growing sophistication in defense industry and intelligence capabilities, and a more outward-looking foreign policy have all been factors,” Outzen told Newsweek.
“The continuity afforded by uninterrupted governance by Erdogan’s AKP party, whatever its implications for domestic politics, certainly confers advantages in power politics and international affairs,” he added. “The changing international system has advantaged mid-sized powers in many ways, and Ankara has played its hand well in that regard.”
Changing tides in the U.S. have also played a prominent role, as Trump capitalizes on national fatigue over prolonged involvement in foreign conflicts, and looks to partners for aid in his peacemaking efforts.
At the same time, the unpredictability of a rapidly evolving global order, as well as Trump’s unconventional approach to the presidency also bring about risks, not least of which, Outzen noted, include “the need for constant and patient alliance management—and it’s fair to question whether the bureaucracies on both sides have the muscle memory to do that work.”
Thus far, however, the two men appear to be finding enough common ground on their respective agendas to sustain a prolonged alignment.
“The two leaders may be dissimilar in personal style but complementary in foreign policy approach,” Outzen said. “Both respect strength, value commerce and grand bargains of the political or business variety, and trust personalized policy approaches over institutionalized approaches.”
“Both have credibility rooted in willingness to act and following through on commitments and perhaps go against type in their respective political cultures for that reason,” he added.
Now Trump appears to have a place for Erdogan in his touted “Golden Age of America.”
“The U.S. has neither the appetite nor, arguably the resources to unilaterally manage the world—it needs capable partners with general, if not total, alignment in the various regions of the world,” Outzen said.
“The list of conflicts and regional challenges where U.S. and Turkish interests overlap is long, and Washington needs partners with serious military, economic, and diplomatic capabilities,” he added. “The benefits are thus clear.”
The post Turkey’s Erdogan Has Become One of World’s Most Powerful Men—And Trump Ally appeared first on Newsweek.
