President Donald Trump has enjoyed a slight uptick in favorability, according to a series of mid-May polls compiled by political analyst and statistician Nate Silver.
In a recent post to his Substack, Silver Bulletin, the analyst said Trump’s net approval rating had risen to -5.8 as of Friday, up nearly four points from his second-term low of -9.7 on April 29, and the highest level since April 22.
Why It Matters
Trump returned to the Oval Office in January, after winning the popular vote and the Electoral College in last year’s election, with the Republican Party flipping the Senate and maintaining its majority in the House of Representatives.
However, despite beginning his second term with significant support—and a net approval rating of +11.7 percent, according to Silver Bulletin—the president’s favorability in the eyes of the American public has been shaky in recent weeks, with surveys highlighting their concerns over the economy, tariffs and inflation in particular.
Silver’s report follows a détente in the U.S.-China trade war and a lucrative tour of several countries in the Middle East by the president, signaling that Trump’s support may have mounted a rebound amid improving economic sentiment.
What To Know
Silver’s analysis—based on aggregated results from dozens of polls, weighted according to recency, sample size as well as the pollsters’ historic accuracy—found that 50.9 percent of Americans disapprove of Trump, compared to 45.5 percent who approve.
Silver noted that there is significant disparity between the polls included in his average, owing to both statistical variation and the historic difficulty pollsters have encountered when attempting to measure Trump’s favorability.
Trump enjoys a 48.7 percent approval rating on immigration and 47.3 percent disapproval. However, this +1.4 percent net rating is the only positive among the issues included in Silver’s analysis. The president is in the red when it comes to trade (-11.9 percent), the economy (-13 percent) and inflation (-26 percent).
While the latest Consumer Price Index reading from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed the 12-month inflation rate slowing to 2.3 percent, its lowest level since February 2021, consumers have still expressed anxiety over rising prices largely due to the anticipated impact of tariffs.
According to the University of Michigan’s latest consumer sentiment survey, year-ahead inflation expectations have risen from 6.5 percent in April to 7.3 percent in May, with many citing tariffs in their response. However, the University of Michigan noted that the majority of responses were gathered prior to the May 12 announcement of a temporary reduction in tariffs by the U.S. and China, adding that this may lead consumers to reassess their views of current economic conditions.
What People Are Saying
Silver Bulletin’s Eli McKown-Dawson wrote: “This could just be noise driven by a dearth of new polls, or it could be a reversal of the downward trend we’ve seen since the start of Trump’s term. We’ll have to wait for more data to find out.”
Rebecca Homkes, economic consultant and lecturer at the London Business School, said that the enthusiasm which met last week’s announcement of a tariff pause should be moderated, telling Newsweek: “Media shouldn’t get distracted by the posturing of the news of who won or struck a better deal: chaos has a cost, and the focus should be instead on the more nuanced points around the next steps for negotiating a longer-term agreement.”
What Happens Next?
Sean Metcalfe, associate director at Oxford Economics, said a “future escalation” between the U.S. and China remains possible “as tariffs will likely continue to be used as a negotiating tactic.”
“This will keep trade policy uncertainty uncomfortably high and create the potential for future, and significant, disruptions in supply chains,” he told Newsweek.
Last week, the U.S. and China agreed to lower their “reciprocal” tariffs for 90 days as negotiations continue.
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