Days after storms tore a path of destruction across the Midwest, severe weather is once again expected on Sunday into Monday. The forecast is potentially for “all severe hazards,” including hail larger than golf balls, strong winds and tornadoes, according to the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center.
The risk is spread across a broad slice of the middle of the country, but it is focused over the south and central Great Plains and the northern High Plains on Sunday, and then the central Plains into Missouri on Monday.
The Midwest and the Northeast are still recovering from a spate of deadly storms that generated several strong tornadoes on Friday. In Missouri and Kentucky alone, tornadoes killed at least 25 people, officials said. A rare dust storm swept across central Illinois and into Chicago.
“We’re probably one to two notches below what occurred,” Aaron Gleason, a meteorologist at the Storm Prediction Center, said of the weather he expected for Sunday and Monday. “There certainly could be strong tornadoes though, but not over as large of an area.”
The severe weather is hitting at a time when the Weather Service is facing staffing shortages after the Trump administration ordered cuts. Nearly 600 people having departed through layoffs and retirements.
A forecasting office in Jackson, Ky., which was directly in the line of Friday night’s tornadoes, is one of four that no longer have enough staff to operate at all times. It would have been without an overnight forecaster, said Tom Fahy, the legislative director for the union that represents Weather Service employees. But after an “all hands on deck” scramble, he said, the office stayed open and was fully staffed, issuing 11 tornado warnings.
The three other forecasting offices are in Sacramento; Hanford, Calif.; and Goodland, Kan. Four more, Mr. Fahy said, are days away from losing their overnight staffing: in Cheyenne, Wyo.; Marquette, Mich.; Pendleton, Ore.; and Fairbanks, Alaska.
On Sunday, there are two separate areas at an enhanced risk — level 3 out of 5, in the Weather Service’s categories — for severe weather: One is centered over far northeast Colorado into western Nebraska, and another over central Kansas into northern Oklahoma.
“When you look at both of those areas, the biggest threat is the hail potential,” said Brian Hurley, a meteorologist with the Weather Prediction Center. “Golf to baseball-size hail is anticipated.”
In Kansas, Wichita and Topeka are two of the more heavily populated areas where thunderstorms could develop. The area is also at risk for supercells, which are longer-lasting storms that generate large hail and stronger winds than typical thunderstorms. They can also spawn powerful tornadoes.
“The highest tornado threat is going to be from central and southern Kansas into Oklahoma,” said Mr. Hurley.
Sunday’s severe threat is a classic storm scenario across an area notorious for tornadoes, hail and wind.
“The forecast environment for the southern Plains predicts a volatile setup that has not been seen in five to 10 years,” said Sean Waugh, a research scientist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Severe Storms Laboratory. “Potentially marking the return of the classic southern Plains outbreak event.”
As of Saturday night, there was less confidence in the forecast for Monday, Mr. Gleason said. But he added: “It could be a big day.”
A large area of the Plains and the Midwest has some risk for severe thunderstorms, with eastern Kansas and Oklahoma, a portion of North Texas, Missouri and the northwest corner of Arkansas in the bull’s-eye of an enhanced threat. Damaging wind gusts up to 70 miles per hour and hail remain the main threats, with the potential for hail to be even larger than on Sunday.
The risk of tornadoes in the region will also remain in place on Monday.
There is expected to be some rain in the mix, too. Showers and thunderstorms could produce heavy rain over parts of the southern Plains and into the middle and lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday, and they are expected to be more focused over the central Plains into Missouri and north Arkansas on Monday.
As of Sunday morning, these areas were under a “slight risk” warning, level 2 of 4 for flash flooding according to the Weather Prediction Center’s excessive rainfall outlook. However, by Monday some of these areas could be upgraded to a level 3 risk because of already saturated ground from recent storms.
“That is really going to be largely predicated on where some of the heavy rain falls ahead of that on Sunday,” said Mr. Hurley. “The best bet could be somewhere in Missouri and Arkansas.”
By Tuesday, the storm system will shift eastward, bringing the threat of severe weather to the Midwest, Tennessee Valley and Ohio Valley.
“The biggest threat is going to be the wind and hail again, but the flash flood threat will also be there,” said Mr. Hurley. “It definitely is a May springtime pattern in the United States.”
Judson Jones and Nazaneen Ghaffar contributed reporting.
Amy Graff is a Times reporter covering weather, wildfires and earthquakes.
The post Severe Weather Continues to Threaten the Midwest appeared first on New York Times.
