LISBON — Portugal’s center-right Democratic Alliance coalition is projected to net the most votes in Sunday’s snap election, with the far-right Chega party potentially positioned to become the second largest party in the country’s parliament.
According to Católica University’s exit poll projections, Prime Minister Luís Montenegro’s coalition received between 34 and 29 percent of the vote. That sets up the Democratic Alliance to increase the number of seats it controls in the Portuguese parliament, but fall short of those needed for a governing majority.
Pedro Nuno Santos’s Socialist Party appears to be neck and neck with André Ventura’s ultranationalist Chega group, which could end up being the second-largest party in the parliament if the exit polls are correct. Both parties are projected to have received between 20 and 26 percent of the votes.
“We don’t yet know if we’re the second- or third-largest party,” said Chega lawmaker Pedro Pinto. “But we know that the system has been shaken … And we represent a governing alternative.”
This Sunday’s snap national elections took place just 14 months after the last legislative vote was held. Montenegro’s center-right government collapsed after the prime minister’s integrity was called into question as a result of the so-called “Spinumviva scandal.”
Opposition lawmakers took issue with the prime minister’s connection to the Spinumviva data protection consultancy, which he founded during a time when he was not active in politics and is currently managed by his family. The company counts several companies that hold government contracts among its clients, but Montenegro denies any conflicts of interest exist.
Although the center-right politician survived several censure motions filed against his minority government in relation to Spinumviva, he eventually stepped down after losing a confidence vote in parliament in March.
Polls indicate widespread public frustration with a snap election widely considered to be unnecessary. Voters appear to have taken out their anger on the Socialists, and rewarded both the governing center-right and a far-right that questions the country’s democratic status quo.
Socialist support?
Montenegro has ruled out any sort of governing agreement with Chega, which means forming a minority government will likely require tacit support from the center-left.
Last year, Socialist Party leader Pedro Nuno Santos opted for constructive collaboration and ordered his party to abstain in critical votes, which enabled Montenegro to both form a minority government and, later, pass a crucial budget bill.
Relations between the two main parties have soured in the wake of last March’s failed confidence vote, and it’s unclear if the center left will be willing to permit the center-right to govern this time around.
Portugal’s constitution doesn’t set a deadline for the formation of a new government, nor does it include any clause that would force the dissolution of parliament if lawmakers fail to confirm a new prime minister.
The constitution does, however, prohibit snap elections within six months of the vote and during the final six months of a presidential term. Given that President of the Republic Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa’s term concludes in March 2026, the earliest a fresh national election could be held is late spring of next year.
Prior to the publication of the exit polls on Sunday the Socialist Party’s president, Carlos César, acknowledged that his party appeared to be headed for defeat and said the Socialists would not push to form a government if they ultimately fail to secure the largest share of votes.
“If the electors back the Socialists, we’ll be very happy,” César told state broadcaster RTP. “But if they don’t, we have to respect the will of the people.”
The center-left politician declined to say if a new defeat would spell doom for Santos, who has served as the party’s secretary general since António Costa stepped down last year and been its candidate for prime minister in the two elections that have been held since then.
Voting on Sunday took place without any major incidents, with the exception of one violent episode in central Lisbon.
Socialist Party candidate Miguel Coelho, president of the city’s Santa Maria Maior district, reported being pushed to the ground and punched by an elector who urged onlookers to vote for the far-right Chega party. The Portuguese police are investigating the attack on the center-left candidate.
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