Ukrainian and Russian delegations met officially for the first time in three years in Istanbul on Friday. They failed to reach but did agree to exchange prisoners of .
The talks were initiated by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who sent the deputy heads of several ministries, as well as his adviser Vladimir Medinsky.
One day ahead of the talks, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy criticized Putin for sending representatives who aren’t empowered to make decisions and described the delegation as a “sham.”
Zelenskyy had met with his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, on Thursday and agreed to a personal meeting with the Russian president. This would have offered the opportunity to “resolve all the important issues,” Zelenskyy said at the European Political Community summit in Albania, to which he had traveled from Turkey. “But he [Putin] didn’t agree to anything.”
A prisoner swap
Zelenskyy said he sent the Ukrainian delegation to Istanbul primarily out of respect for and Erdogan. He added that he did not expect any significant results.
After the negotiations, the head of the Ukrainian delegation, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, said the government’s top priority was people and announced that each country had agreed to exchange 1,000 prisoners.
Both sides have shared their views on the modalities of a ceasefire, with the details still to be worked out, Umerov said. Though is in a position to continue the fight, the war must be brought to an end, he said. “Our president was expecting high level discussions. …The next step would be that the leaders-level meeting should be organized.”
Appeasing the US
Russian negotiators made statements that were unacceptable for Ukraine, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi said, without providing examples.
The co-chair of the opposition European Solidarity group in the Ukrainian parliament, Iryna Herashchenko, wrote on Facebook that had demanded that Ukraine withdraw its troops from its own territory as a “gesture of goodwill” so that a ceasefire could be announced.
“This is an ultimatum and a call for capitulation that directly contradict the principles of international law,” she wrote. “The behavior of the Russian delegation in Istanbul is evidence of blackmail instead of negotiations, and instead of compromises there is a list of ultimatums, including the demand to cede Ukrainian territory to Russia.”
Ivan Us, a foreign policy expert from the Ukrainian National Institute for Strategic Studies, accused the Russian delegation of propaganda, but added that officials hadn’t said anything unexpected. “There were negotiations because the US wanted to see them,” he told DW.
Ukraine agreed to take part because its European partners had asked for it, and because they are not prepared to . Moscow, on the other hand, came to Istanbul primarily to spread its usual narrative. “While Russia wants to continue fighting, it is aware that it will not succeed as long as the US provides Ukraine with assistance,” he said.
What comes next?
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said the Ukrainian and Russian representatives agreed in principle to meet again in Istanbul. But military expert and former Ukrainian security service member Ivan Stupak told DW: “The Russians are currently not ready for talks because they have the advantage on the front.”
As long as there is no stalemate on the line of contact, no one will sit down at the negotiating table, Stupak said. This will probably not happen until October at the earliest — following Putin’s planned summer offensive, he predicted. “There must be no appeasement in the form of lifting sanctions, recognition of Crimea as Russian territory or a promise to jointly develop the Arctic,” Stupak said, adding that this approach hasn’t worked anyway. “That’s why the fighting will continue.”
Foreign policy expert Ivan Us also believes that a rapprochement is more likely in the fall. Studies of official Russian economic indicators suggest that there could be a sharp slump around October, Us said. Only then would Putin be prepared to discuss a ceasefire, make concessions and end the war, he added.
This article was originally written in German.
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