Any Democrat trying to win an election in Arizona, most political strategists agree, must do nearly everything right — and still hope for a little luck.
By that standard, next year’s elections are looking worrisome for Democrats in the Grand Canyon State.
Their standard-bearer, Gov. Katie Hobbs, is among the nation’s most vulnerable Democrats seeking re-election in 2026. And, rather than bolstering her with vital political muscle and support, the party has been consumed by an acrimonious and seemingly petty feud between the new state Democratic chairman and Arizona’s two Democratic senators.
In a swing state with around 300,000 more Republicans than Democrats, and where President Trump stormed to victory in November, Ms. Hobbs is also likely to face a more formidable opponent than she did in 2022, when she squeaked out a win against Kari Lake, whose stolen-election lies had alienated voters across the political spectrum.
Representative Andy Biggs, a hard-right populist, and Karrin Taylor Robson, a businesswoman from the party’s more moderate McCain wing, have entered the G.O.P. primary. Both have been endorsed by Mr. Trump, but their contest is already shaping up as a fierce battle, with die-hard Trump supporters mocking Ms. Robson as having suddenly jumped on the president’s bandwagon.
If Ms. Hobbs’s first task is to consolidate her own support, however, her low-key approach may be holding her back, according to interviews with more than a dozen Democratic politicians, strategists and their allies in Arizona, many of whom insisted on anonymity to speak candidly.
“It’s really hard to win in Arizona as a Democrat, always,” said Andy Barr, a longtime strategist for Democrats in the state. “Anyone who feels confident is just not living in reality.”
While serving as Arizona’s secretary of state, Ms. Hobbs, who declined to be interviewed for this article, gained prominence by vocally resisting Mr. Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election. Running for governor in 2022, though, she took such an under-the-radar approach that it led to hand-wringing by supporters, a perception she was avoiding the news media and a jeering question from Republicans: “Where’s Katie?”
In office, Ms. Hobbs — a former social worker who drove for Uber to help pay the bills when she was a state senator — has stuck with that low profile, casting herself as a moderate pragmatist focused on business interests. But she may not have done enough to earn affection from Democrats.
She rarely campaigned last year for former Vice President Kamala Harris, opting to focus on down-ballot races. She frustrated the left by vetoing a bipartisan housing bill that would have encouraged more starter homes, saying the legislation would have “unintended consequences.” She disappointed teachers by failing to clamp down on Arizona’s costly private-school voucher program. And, courting moderates, she dismayed immigration activists by backing a migrant detention law signed by Mr. Trump, though she has also vetoed bills that would force cooperation with Immigration and Customs Enforcement.
As immigration rhetoric has shifted rightward, “Governor Hobbs was not bold in protecting people or opposing that narrative,” said Viri Hernandez, former executive director of Poder in Action, a progressive Arizona group. Echoing others on the left, Ms. Hernandez said she believed the governor and other Democrats were taking an overcautious approach to working-class issues that “continues to be a failing strategy.”
Worse, Ms. Hobbs’s bridge-building attempts are short on results, as the Republican-controlled State Legislature has blocked many of her priorities.
They stymied Ms. Hobbs’s school voucher efforts, and so effectively stonewalled the approval of her appointees to run state agencies that the governor installed them without confirmation, running afoul of the courts.
Democrats have been encouraged to see Ms. Hobbs play a little hardball more recently. Exasperated by Republicans’ delay in funding a program for disabled people, she threatened in April to veto all other bills until the Legislature funded the program, which it soon did.
Indeed, Ms. Hobbs’s strongest case for re-election may lie in what she has stopped Republicans from doing: She has rejected hundreds of bills, including legislation that would have legalized gun silencers and treated fetuses as people, shattering records and earning bragging rights as the state’s “Veto Queen.”
Ms. Hobbs has other things to brag about, too. Despite rising costs, Arizona’s economy is in good shape. Her pro-business attitude has borne fruit: She signed a bill last month allowing a technology company, Axon, to build a local headquarters without voter input, after it had threatened to leave the state.
“It sends a message that Arizona is open for business and we’re not gonna let politicians use the government to shut business down,” Ms. Hobbs told a local radio station.
A spokesman for the governor, Christian Slater, pointed to other housing bills Ms. Hobbs has signed, as well as actions she has taken to protect the state’s water supply, repeal a restrictive abortion ban and combat drug cartels.
“Governor Hobbs is a common-sense leader who will work with anybody, no matter their party, to deliver results for everyday Arizonans,” Mr. Slater said in a statement. A spokesman for her campaign also noted that Ms. Hobbs had never lost an election.
If voters continue to sour on Mr. Trump’s presidency, Ms. Hobbs could enjoy a favorable national environment for Democrats in 2026. And her team has sought to exploit the natural advantages of incumbency by arranging for her to appear on local radio and television shows with more frequency this year.
Still, she is dealing with a fractured state party.
Adrian Fontes, the Democrat who succeeded Ms. Hobbs as secretary of state, last year considered challenging her for governor. Both Mr. Fontes and Attorney General Kris Mayes, who has aggressively opposed Mr. Trump, are viewed as more visible Democratic leaders, and tensions between them and Ms. Hobbs are an open secret. Both declined to comment.
The stakes are high, and will only rise: Mr. Fontes, who announced last month that he was instead running for re-election, and Ms. Mayes, also are expected to face tougher re-election opponents.
A potentially more damaging conflict broke out into the open this spring within the state party, whose responsibility it is to raise money and help Democrats get elected.
Angered by Mr. Trump’s victory, Democrats installed a new party chairman: Robert Branscomb, an insurance company owner who had been a vice chair. Mr. Branscomb soon began clashing with staff members over personnel decisions and accused them of sabotaging him by withholding financial documents.
Mr. Branscomb, who declined to comment for this article, wrote to party members detailing the infighting and attacking Senators Ruben Gallego and Mark Kelly, both Democrats, for criticizing one of his staffing choices. He claimed that one of the senators had called him, “demeaning me and demanding I reverse my decision within 24 hours or ‘face consequences.’”
“I will not be coerced, and I will not be silenced,” Mr. Branscomb added.
The backlash against him was swift. Some Democrats called on Mr. Branscomb to resign and compiled lists of potential replacements. A statement signed by both senators and the three statewide elected Democrats said Mr. Branscomb had “lost our trust.”
Some joked, darkly, that Mr. Branscomb had accomplished the impossible: uniting the state’s constantly bickering Democratic elected officials. But the disarray posed an unwanted distraction for the party as Ms. Hobbs steels for a tough re-election fight.
Party infighting “hurts the vibes,” acknowledged Eric Chalmers, a Democratic political consultant, though he said it ultimately wouldn’t make or break anyone’s campaign.
More infighting could lie ahead when, under a new state law, Ms. Hobbs will choose a running mate who would serve as lieutenant governor if their ticket wins: It is not assured that she would pick a Democrat.
John Giles, the Republican former mayor of Mesa, a Phoenix suburb, confirmed that Ms. Hobbs had discussed the role with him last year and told him that he was on her informal shortlist for the job. (A spokesman for Ms. Hobbs, Michael Beyer, said the governor had never initiated a conversation about the role and was noncommittal when the topic came up because it was “far too early” to think about a running mate.)
In an interview, Mr. Giles, who backed Ms. Harris last year, said he was flattered to be considered, but also questioned whether picking a moderate Republican like himself would be of much help if Ms. Hobbs faced Ms. Robson in the general election rather than the far-right Mr. Biggs.
“If it’s Karrin Taylor Robson — she’s a more moderate candidate, and I don’t know,” Mr. Giles said. “That would be a very competitive race.”
Ms. Hobbs’s defenders argue that the most consequential factor in her bid for re-election will be how voters perceive her in November 2026.
Unlike other Democrats, she has not sought the spotlight as the national party searches for a direction after Mr. Trump’s victory. Even the governor’s allies acknowledge that she does not often demonstrate the soaring oratory or charismatic appeal that has turned other Democratic governors into political celebrities.
But they say that Ms. Hobbs’s understated demeanor and eat-your-vegetables approach to governing helps her relate to the average voter.
“She really shines through when she can interact with day-to-day people,” Mr. Slater said, “because she is such a normal person.”
Katie Glueck and Jack Healy contributed reporting.
Kellen Browning is a Times political reporter based in San Francisco.
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