ISTANBUL — A diplomatic frenzy consumed Istanbul’s Dolmabahçe Palace on Friday, as Russia and Ukraine sat down to hold their first direct peace talks since the early months of this three-year war.
Amid repeatedly changing plans, diplomats from Moscow, Kyiv, Washington, London, Paris and Berlin were attempting to navigate the chaos and confusion ahead of what could either be a historic moment — or a looming anti-climax.
Before the talks even began, President Donald Trump predicted there would be no progress unless he and President Vladimir Putin were involved.
“I don’t believe anything’s going to happen whether you like it or not, until he and I get together,” Trump said of his Russian counterpart while speaking with journalists late Thursday aboard an Air Force One flight to Abu Dhabi. “But we’re going to have to get it solved because too many people are dying.”
Trump said Thursday he wanted to meet his Kremlin counterpart “as soon as we can set it up.” Asked what stood in the way, Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Friday that “such a meeting is certainly necessary” but that first there must be “expert negotiations, consultations and long, intense preparation.”
Putin declined to be part of Russia’s delegation — a downgraded mission that has angered the Ukrainians and American envoys who have traveled here.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has pointed out that the Russian team does not contain “anyone who actually makes decisions.” His own emissaries will be led by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov.
“We are ready for a full and unconditional ceasefire,” Umerov said in a statement Friday. Adding that “peace is only possible if Russia demonstrates readiness for concrete actions.”
The lopsided face-off saw Secretary of State Rubio arriving at the palace despite a no-show from his Russian counterpart, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Trump’s Ukraine envoy, Keith Kellogg, was unable to hide his anger and looked furious as officials swarmed about this Ottoman-era mansion.
Russia has denied accusations that it is sending a weakened roster.
“Our official delegation was approved by the presidential decree and it has all the necessary competencies and powers to conduct negotiations,” the head of its delegation, Vladimir Medinsky, said Thursday at the Russian consulate in Istanbul.
It was the first face-to-face meeting between Russia and Ukraine since the failed talks of April 2022, two months after Russia rolled its tanks across the border.
Today, the gulf between the two sides’ demands remains as wide as the Bosphorus River that cleaves Istanbul in two.
Russian officials say they see the talks as a chance to restart what they call “peace negotiations.” In reality, their conditions for peace — halting the war it started by invading Ukraine in Feb. 2022 — are tantamount to a Ukrainian surrender. Kyiv has said it will never accept these terms, which include agreeing never to join NATO and agreeing to permanent “neutrality” between Moscow and the West.
NBC News asked the Russians on Thursday whether Putin is prepared to compromise — there was no answer
Ukraine instead wants a 30-ceasefire as a basis on which to build future diplomatic wins. Its European supporters say that they will hit Russia with further sanctions if it does not agree. Though often accused of being far softer on Russia than Ukraine, Trump has also suggested he could hit Putin with sanctions if he feels not enough progress is being made.
The talks in Istanbul are shrouded in “smoke and mirrors,” said Jonathan Eyal, international director at the Royal United Services Institute, a London think tank.
“These are not negotiations between two sides willing to explore a real ceasefire,” Eyal said. Rather, the parties “are trying to capture the public narrative of who is the obstacle to these discussions — and to avoid the wrath and anger of President Trump.”
Eyal likens the negotiations to “a game of musical chairs — when the music stops, who remains standing?” That is to say: “When Mr. Trump finally loses patience, who does he blame for failing to achieve a ceasefire? That’s the whole game.”
Friday kicked off with a meeting between officials from Ukraine, the U.S., Britain, Germany and France. These parties “coordinated our positions” ahead of the key meeting with Russia set for later in the day, Umerov said.
While the suits talked in Turkey, across the Black Sea the violence continued in Ukraine.
Russia fired 112 drones at Kyiv, Odessa, Zhytomyr, Chernihiv and Mykolaiv, according to the Ukrainian Air Force. Most of these were shot down, but a small number got through and caused unspecified damage, it said.
Keir Simmons reported from Istanbul and Alexander Smith reported from London.
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