President Donald Trump is more popular in New Jersey—a Democratic stronghold that shifted toward Republicans in last year’s election—than President Joe Biden was in springtime of last year, according to a new poll.
Why It Matters
Trump’s approval rating has seen some fluctuation in recent weeks amid growing dissatisfaction with his economic policies, particularly tariffs, and his handling of immigration. But, Trump’s inroads in New Jersey have given Republicans hope that they can compete in this year’s governor’s race.
Democrats have easily won New Jersey in most recent presidential races. Former President Joe Biden carried it by 16 points in 2020. But in 2024, former Vice President Kamala Harris carried it by only six points, Democrats‘ worst performance in the Garden State in decades.
What To Know
New Jersey voters are roughly split on whether they approve of Trump’s job performance nearly four months into his second term in office, according to the Emerson College poll, which surveyed 1,000 registered voters from May 11 to May 13, 2025.
It found that 46.7 percent of respondents approve of Trump’s job performance while 47 percent disapprove of him so far. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
That’s a stronger approval than Biden held in New Jersey nearly one year earlier, when an Emerson College poll showed that only 40 percent of New Jersey voters approved of him, while 46.5 percent disapproved of his job performance.
That poll was an early red flag for Democrats about New Jersey, as it showed Biden only leading by about 6.3 points in the presidential race—only a slightly higher lead than Harris’ eventual 5.9 point victory in the state.
The 2024 poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters from March 26 to March 29, 2024, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
The poll also found that Trump is more popular in New Jersey than Democratic Governor Phil Murphy, who is term-limited. Murphy was approved by 40.1 percent of respondents while his performance as governor received a disapproval rating of 44.7 percent.
This year’s gubernatorial race will be a key test about whether Republicans can continue to gain in the state.
Newsweek reached out to a Murphy spokesperson and Biden’s office for comment via email.
New Jersey last voted for a Republican presidential candidate in 1988, but its off-year gubernatorial races have been more competitive, with Republican Chris Christie serving two terms from 2010-2018. The state last elected a Republican senator in 1972.
What People Are Saying
Wall Street Journal Assistant Editor James Freeman wrote in an opinion article on Thursday: “Mr. Trump ran more strongly than expected in the Garden State in 2024 when he finished within 6 percentage points of Kamala Harris. Since then he seems to have maintained and perhaps even enhanced his competitive standing.”
Democratic New Jersey gubernatorial candidate and Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop told Newsweek this week: “The talking point from Republicans is going to be ‘Four more years of Phil Murphy.’ So I think that we’re unique in a situation that we’re coming from a place where we’re saying, ‘Yeah, the Democratic Party in New Jersey has been broken, and we need to rebuild the Democratic Party.’”
President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social last month: “They are negative criminals who apologize to their subscribers and readers after I win elections big, much bigger than their polls showed I would win, [lose] a lot of credibility, and then go on cheating and lying for the next cycle, only worse.”
What Happens Next
After the June 10 primary, voters in New Jersey will head to the polls for the general election on November 4. The Cook Political Report currently classifies the race as leaning Democrat, meaning it is “considered competitive” but Democrats have an “advantage.”
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