JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has warned that the U.S. could still face a recession because of President Donald Trump’s trade war.
Dimon, one of the most influential figures on Wall Street, told Fox Business host Maria Bartiromo in early April that Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs were “way beyond what people expected,” and would fuel inflation and slow growth.
He said the chances of a recession seemed “likely,” and his warnings appeared to help convince Trump to pause tariffs on most countries.
April ended with the inflation rate at around 2.3 percent, wide of the Federal Reserve’s target of two percent. Dimon’s forecast for slow growth materialized, too. Growth slumped in the first quarter of 2025, with some forecasts predicting further deceleration.
Trump has since hit the brakes on the hyper-charged levies, notably bringing duties on Chinese imports down from 145 percent to 30 percent. The stock market has rallied as a result, and the economic picture in the U.S. is slightly less bleak.
Trump has touted this as a success, saying in one celebratory Truth Social post: “No Inflation, and Prices of Gasoline, Energy, Groceries, and practically everything else, are DOWN!!!”
Inflation, however, was down only slightly from March’s 2.4 percent rate, falling to 2.3 percent in April so Trump’s boast of “no inflation” is clearly misleading.
Dimon on Thursday urged caution and said that we still cannot dispel the notion of a recession.
“Hopefully we’ll avoid it, but I wouldn’t take it off the table at this point,” he said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “If there is a recession, I don’t know how big it would be or how long it would last.”
Dimon, speaking at JPMorgan’s annual Global Markets Conference in Paris, said that despite Trump’s victory lap, volatility is still rampant in the markets. As a result, JPMorgan’s trading volume has remained high.
“You’ve seen examples where there’s good volatility and there’s bad volatility,” he said. “This one happened to be good. The next go around it may not be so good.”
He also warned about the effect this has on investor confidence when they look at the U.S.
“There’ll be a little of that,” he said. “We irritate a lot of people. I run into them, they say you know, they’re not buying our Kentucky bourbon.”
Walmart, meanwhile, has warned that it might have to hike its prices because of Trump’s tariffs.
CEO Doug McMillon said Thursday during an earnings call that the retailer, seen as a bellwether of U.S. consumer health, can no longer absorb the extra cost created by the president’s duties on dozens of nations.
Another executive said during the call that about a third of Walmart’s U.S. stock comes from outside the country, with China, Mexico, Canada, Vietnam, and India its largest markets for imports.
All of these countries have been hit by Trump’s tariffs. So to have Costa Rica, Peru, and Colombia. This has affected food costs.
“We will do our best to keep our prices as low as possible. But given the magnitude of the tariffs, even at the reduced levels announced this week, we aren’t able to absorb all the pressure given the reality of narrow retail margins,” McMillon said.
“The higher tariffs will result in higher prices,” he added.
The company’s finance chief, John David Rainey, told CNBC on Thursday that the price change will become visible to consumers later this month.
The post America’s Top Banker Warns Trump Trade War Is Still Risking Recession appeared first on The Daily Beast.
