Ukrainian and Russian delegations arrived in Turkey before a possible round of talks to end the war between the countries but from the start, there was confusion over whether they would even meet.
On Thursday morning, reporters gathered outside Dolmabahce, an Ottoman palace on the Bosporus, where talks between Ukraine and Russia took place in March 2022. Tass, a Russian state news agency, had reported that Thursday’s talks would take place there, citing an anonymous source.
But as television reporters from around the world jostled for space on the sidewalk near the palace in Istanbul to do their stand-ups, no one seemed to know whether the negotiations would take place — or whether there was even a Ukrainian delegation in the same city.
The potential talks have been guided by gamesmanship ever since President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia first proposed negotiations in Turkey. President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine personally took up the offer, saying he would join. President Trump said he too might go if Mr. Putin did.
But, late on Wednesday, it seemed that Mr. Putin of Russia would not attend, when his name did not appear on a list of officials who would be present.
President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine was also unlikely to join, as he and the country’s foreign minister were in Ankara, for another meeting scheduled with Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
A spokeswoman for the head of Russia’s delegation, Vladimir Medinsky, declined to provide any specifics about Thursday’s planned talks. Ukraine’s National Security Council declined to comment on plans for the talks.
A meeting between Mr. Putin and Mr. Zelensky would have been the first between the two men since before Russia invaded Ukraine three years ago, launching a war that by conservative estimates has resulted in well over one million dead and injured soldiers on both sides.
If other officials from Ukraine and Russia meet, it would be the first known direct peace talks between the two countries since March 2022.
Mr. Zelensky, speaking in his nightly address to the nation on Wednesday, said he was still not sure how things would play out.
“This week really may change a lot — but only may,” he said. “Everything is being decided right now.”
How did we get here?
The prospect of a high-profile cease-fire negotiation in Turkey was the latest turn in a rapidly shifting diplomatic landscape.
Mr. Trump came into office earlier this year promising to bring the war to a swift conclusion. He began his efforts on Feb. 12, with phone calls first to Mr. Putin and then to Mr. Zelensky. He did not coordinate efforts with European allies, who have stood united behind Ukraine.
After the calls, he said he believed both Mr. Putin and Mr. Zelensky wanted peace. But the Trump administration strategy was to pressure Kyiv, blaming Ukraine for being invaded by Russia.
“You should have never started it,” Mr. Trump said at one point, referring to Ukraine’s leaders. “You could have made a deal.”
In late February, Mr. Zelensky traveled to Washington to meet with Mr. Trump, but the visit ended in disaster when Mr. Trump and Vice President JD Vance castigated the Ukrainian leader in the Oval Office for not being grateful enough for U.S. support. Mr. Trump then briefly suspended military assistance and intelligence sharing.
At the same time, he was trying to induce Moscow to agree to a cease-fire by holding out the prospect of economic relief from sanctions.
With British and French guidance, Ukraine moved quickly to mend fences with the president and within less than two weeks, at a meeting in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, agreed to a key demand of the Trump administration: an immediate and unconditional 30-day cease-fire, abandoning demands for security guarantees before a truce.
Mr. Putin rebuffed that idea, but both sides agreed to a limited truce covering strikes on energy infrastructure, although each accused the other almost immediately of violations.
Mr. Putin then proposed a three-day cease-fire to coincide with an annual Victory Day parade in Moscow commemorating the defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II. Kyiv did not agree to that.
Overall, during the first months of this year, while Mr. Trump was trying to broker peace talks, the hostilities were far deadlier than the same period last year, according to the United Nations.
On Saturday, one day after Mr. Putin’s Victory Day parade, the leaders of France, Germany, Britain and Poland traveled to Kyiv to issue an ultimatum: Russia either agrees to an immediate and unconditional cease-fire or it faces a new round of withering economic sanctions.
Mr. Putin responded with his own gambit: a proposal for Ukraine and Russia to resume direct negotiations starting on Thursday in Turkey.
Mr. Zelensky answered swiftly with his challenge to Mr. Putin to attend the talks, trying to put the onus on the Russian leader.
What does Russia want?
When Mr. Putin and other Russian leaders talk about ending the war, they focus on what they call the “root causes” of the conflict — Kremlin shorthand for a range of issues including the existence of Ukraine as a fully independent and sovereign nation aligned with the West.
Specifically, the Kremlin says it wants control over five Ukrainian territories, including wide swaths of land it has failed to seize despite the years of war. Mr. Putin has also demanded that Ukraine agree to strict limitations on its military, and that Ukraine not join NATO. He has also never wavered in his insistence that all Western military assistance to Ukraine needs to be suspended before a cease-fire begins.
Despite the staggering losses his forces have suffered, Mr. Putin seems to believe he is in a strong position to make sweeping demands, gambling that his military will eventually bleed out the Ukrainians.
What Does Ukraine Want?
With Russia holding the initiative on the front for more than 16 months, many Ukrainians have concluded that they are unlikely to drive the Russians off their lands militarily. And so Kyiv wants to freeze the fighting where it is and then make a case that any formal recognition of Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian lands violate basic tenets of international law and set a dangerous precedent.
Kyiv has also said it will accept no limitations on its military. Its European allies have vowed to continue to work to strengthen Ukraine after any truce to ensure Russia is not tempted to attack again.
There are also a host of other complicated issues at play, among them the return of thousands of children taken from their families to Russia.
Nataliia Novosolova contributed research.
Marc Santora has been reporting from Ukraine since the beginning of the war with Russia. He was previously based in London as an international news editor focused on breaking news events and earlier the bureau chief for East and Central Europe, based in Warsaw. He has also reported extensively from Iraq and Africa.
Andrew E. Kramer is the Kyiv bureau chief for The Times, who has been covering the war in Ukraine since 2014.
Anton Troianovski is the Moscow bureau chief for The Times. He writes about Russia, Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia.
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