Trump’s $142 billion arms deal may not get the Saudis the F-35 stealth fighter

During his visit to Saudi Arabia, President Donald Trump signed what the White House described as “the largest defense sales agreement in history,” valued at almost $142 billion, that will provide the kingdom “state-of-the-art warfighting equipment and services.” The offer, the final value of which may ultimately prove much less than $142 billion, is expected to include Lockheed Martin’s C-130 Hercules transport aircraft and other unspecified missiles and radars. Neither the White House nor administration officials have provided further details about which specific systems the deal may include, such as the advanced fighter Riyadh has wanted.

The two sides discussed a potential Saudi purchase of the F-35 Lightning II stealth strike fighter and Israel’s qualitative military edge came up, Reuters reported Tuesday. The Saudis have sought the F-35 for years since it’s one of the world’s top fighter jets that could put the kingdom’s armed forces on par with Israel, the only Middle Eastern country currently flying that fifth-generation combat aircraft. Washington is legally obligated to preserve Israel’s military advantage by, among other things, not selling military hardware to regional countries that are as or more advanced than Israel’s arsenal. Unlike the neighboring United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia has not joined the Abraham Accords by normalizing ties with Israel and refuses to do so amid the ongoing war in Gaza.

“I think an F-35 deal could be agreed upon even absent Saudi-Israeli normalization,” Ryan Bohl, a senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at the risk intelligence company RANE, told Business Insider. “However, to proceed with the F-35 package, it would have to be significantly downgraded to preserve Israel’s qualitative military edge.”

“Such downgrades might diminish the overall sale’s attractiveness to the Saudis.”

Israel took delivery of three F-35s in March, bringing its total fleet strength to 42. It will field 75 eventually. Washington may not agree to sell Riyadh a comparable number, and it may impose limits on their use.

“I don’t think numbers alone will be sufficient, as the Israelis will be concerned that such systems could eventually end up in the hands of adversaries,” Bohl said. “Rather, I think we would likely see technical restrictions and end-use requirements that would severely limit the usage of F-35s by the Saudis and reduce their capabilities against the Israelis.”

Israel’s F-35I Adir is a unique version of the stealth aircraft that Israel modifies with indigenous weapons and systems. Therefore, the Adir is arguably already more advanced than any standard F-35A model Saudi Arabia might acquire.

Ultimately, it is Israel’s arch-rival Iran that may have more concerns over the prospect of Saudi F-35s.

Any F-35 acquisition could give Saudi Arabia the “ability to conduct deep strikes in Iran” in ways far greater than presently possible with their current fleet of non-stealthy 4.5-generation F-15s, noted Sebastien Roblin, a widely published military-aviation journalist. Such an acquisition could also “substantially enhance” Saudi airpower and enable Riyadh to participate in any US or Israeli bombing campaign against Iran.

“I can see such an acquisition affecting the perceived regional balance of power vis-à-vis Tehran,” Roblin told BI.

“That said, in a large-scale conflict, questions would arise about the vulnerability of these aircraft to Iranian strikes when they landed,” Roblin said. “And whether these countries could acquire enough F-35s with enough munitions and muster sufficient professionalism and support assets to minimize risks of combat losses.”

Riyadh may not prioritize acquiring the F-35 and seek other advanced American armaments.

The US is much more open to exporting advanced drones to Middle Eastern countries than just a few years ago, when Washington largely followed the range and payload limitations suggested by the Missile Technology Control Regime for exported systems.

Before Trump’s trip, Washington green-lighted a potential sale of MQ-9B drones to Qatar. General Atomics is expected to offer Saudi Arabia MQ-9B SeaGuardians as part of a “huge” package deal.

“I think the weakening of end-use restrictions will certainly make the Americans more eager to strike deals to sell their drones to the region,” RANE’s Bohl said. “American drones will still need to compete against Turkish and Chinese drones that may be cheaper and have fewer political strings attached.”

When Washington previously declined Middle East requests for advanced American drones, China stepped in and supplied its drones throughout the region in the 2010s. In the 2020s, Saudi Arabia and the UAE signed lucrative contracts with Turkey for its indigenous Bayraktar drones.

“I wouldn’t expect a major surge in American drone exports to the region at this point, but rather for them to become part of this region’s drone diversification strategy,” Bohl said. “Certainly, there will be notable deals struck in the coming years, but China and Turkey will continue to be formidable competitors in the drone arena in the Arab Gulf states.”

The White House mentioned that the $142 billion agreement includes “air and missile defense.”

“If we are looking at recent trends, they should be focusing on air defenses, including deeper stocks of interceptor missiles, and diversification of air defenses to cost-efficiently combat lower-end threats as well as high-end ones,” Roblin said.

Saudi Arabia already operates advanced US Patriot air defense missiles and the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system, which can target ballistic missiles outside the atmosphere. It completed its first locally manufactured components of the latter system mere days before Trump’s visit. Riyadh may seek similar co-production deals to aid in developing its domestic arms industry.

“There’s a need for more long-distance precision strike weapons in the form of missiles and drones, which can be used without risking expensive manned combat aircraft,” Roblin said. “There should be some parallel interest at sea, where we’ve seen Ukraine and the Houthis successfully execute sea denial strategies, one that Iran might seek to imitate in the confined waters of the Gulf.”

“Thus, the homework of Gulf navies is to ensure their vessels have the sensors and self-defense weapons to cope with small boat threats and cruise and ballistic missiles.”

Saudi Arabia has already taken steps to expand its navy with more advanced warships in recent years. RANE’s Bohl believes Trump may persuade the kingdom to “purchase big-ticket items like warships” as he attempts to “revitalize the manufacturing sector” in the US.

Only a fraction of this $142 billion agreement may result in completed deals — as was the case with the series of letters of intent for $110 billion worth of arms sales Trump signed with Riyadh in 2017.

“These deals involve optioning huge defense sales, but Trump will present these to his supporters as done deals,” Roblin said. “So, the Gulf states can gift Trump a large number as a political victory without actually having to pay anywhere near the whole bill.”

“For the 2017 defense deal, by the following year, Riyadh reportedly had bought only $14.5 billion out of $110 billion optioned.”

Paul Iddon is a freelance journalist and columnist who writes about Middle East developments, military affairs, politics, and history. His articles have appeared in a variety of publications focused on the region.

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