Following the Timberwolves’ Game 5 win over the Warriors on Wednesday night and the Pacers’ elimination of the Cavaliers earlier this week, just two spots in the NBA Finals remain up for grabs.
In the West, the Thunder enter Game 6 with a 3-2 lead on the Nuggets. OKC can clinch a spot in the Western Conference Finals vs. the Wolves with a win tonight in Denver.
The Thunder entered this series as the heavy betting favorites over Nikola Jokic and Co. The NBA Finals favorites fell behind 2-1 after dropping Games 1 and 3, but they responded with back-to-back fourth-quarter comebacks to win Games 4 and 5 and put the Nuggets on the brink of elimination.
Denver shot just 7-for-23 from the floor in the fourth quarter of Game 4. The Nuggets were even worse (5-for-21) in the final frame in Game 5, as Jokic went 4-for-6 while his teammates combined to make just 1 of their 15 FGA.
Thunder vs. Nuggets Game 6 Betting Odds
How to Watch Thunder vs. Nuggets Game 6
- Tipoff: 8:30 p.m. ET
- Channel: ESPN
Thunder vs. Nuggets Series Winner Odds (as of May 15)
- DraftKings: OKC -1200; DEN +750
- FanDuel: NYK -1500; DEN +870
Thunder vs. Nuggets Game 6 Player Props
Michael Porter Jr. 2+ Made Threes (-104 at FanDuel) — 1 unit
It would be the understatement of the series to say that the Nuggets need more in Game 6 than they’ve been getting in this series from Christian Braun (9.4 ppg), Michael Porter Jr. (7.2 ppg) and Russell Westbrook (11 ppg) to keep their season alive.
Outside of Game 3, Porter — a career 40 percent 3-point shooter — has been particularly disappointing against the Thunder while dealing with a left shoulder injury.
He scored just 10 total points on 3-for-17 FG shooting in Games 1 and 2, then came up huge with 21 points on 5-for-6 3-point shooting in Game 3. But he was once again a non-factor in Games 4 and 5, scoring five total points on 0-for-10 shooting from 3.
Banking on an ice-cold player who’s not 100 percent physically is risky. In this case, though, Porter’s playoff experience, plus the fact that he hit 44 percent of his 3PA vs. the Clippers in the first round despite injuring his shoulder in Game 2 of that series, makes him a good bet to bounce back tonight.
Remember, he made at least three treys in Games 4, 5 and 7 vs. the Clippers (all post-shoulder injury).
In a must-win Game 6 at home tonight, he’s due for at least somewhat of a breakout if the Nuggets continue to give him opportunities. And given Denver’s short bench and Westbrook’s own struggles in this series, Porter’s minutes and shots probably aren’t going anywhere.
A related play here is Nikola Jokic Alt Assists Over 8.5 (+130 at FanDuel). Due to his team’s poor shooting, Jokic finished Game 5 with just five assists. He was credited with 20 (!) potential assists, though.
That tells us that as long as the Nuggets have even a decent shooting night in this game (which is admittedly no sure thing), Jokic could rack up a ton of dimes against an OKC team that he lit up for 46 assists in four regular-season games.
Thunder vs. Nuggets Game 6 Pick, Best Bets
Denver has lost the last two games of this series despite entering the fourth quarter with a lead in both Games 4 (69-63) and 5 (86-78).
OKC’s defense deserves its share of credit for the Nuggets’ recent late-game struggles, but I don’t see the Nuggets shooting 30 percent or worse in the fourth quarter for the third consecutive game.
In Game 5 especially, Jokic created one good shot after another for his teammates down the stretch, but they just couldn’t put the ball in the basket. I expect tonight’s game to be there for the taking in the fourth quarter, just like it was in four of the first five games of this series.
This time — with the home crowd at its back — I expect Denver to make the high-pressure shots it needs to and force a Game 7 back in OKC on Sunday afternoon.
If you’re not quite willing to take the Nuggets on the moneyline, two other plays worth considering are the Nuggets to cover the spread and go over their team total of 106.5.
Thunder vs. Nuggets Game 6 Best Bets:
- Nuggets +4.5 (-112 at FanDuel) — 1 unit
- Nuggets moneyline (+152 at FD) — 0.5 units
- Nuggets Team Total Over 106.5 (-112 at DK) — 0.5 units
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