Potential 2028 Democratic contenders former Vice President Kamala Harris and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York are more popular than President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance, according to YouGov’s polling data.
Why It Matters
While the 2028 election is still more than three years away, political analysts and pollsters are already speculating about who could emerge as the leading Democratic contenders. Meanwhile, Vance is seen by many as the most likely Republican to follow Trump, who is term-limited and can’t technically run for a third term.
Although Trump and some of his allies have repeatedly teased the idea of him seeking an additional term, most constitutional experts believe this would not be possible unless the Constitution is officially changed, which would be an all but impossible process given current political dynamics.
What To Know
No Democratic politician has declared an intention to run for president yet, but most analysts speculate that some of the leading contenders in 2028 would be Harris, Ocasio-Cortez, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, California Governor Gavin Newsom and Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey.
Polling aggregation site Race to the WH currently shows Harris, who lost to Trump in 2024, leading the pack with a polling average of 27.2 percent. She is followed by Ocasio-Cortez in second at 15.9 percent, Buttigieg in third at 12.8 percent, Booker is fourth at 8.6 percent and Newsom is fifth at 7.1 percent.
Donald Trump’s Popularity
The president’s popularity rating currently stands at 43 percent in the first quarter of 2025, according to YouGov’s latest data. Popularity is measured by YouGov as a percentage of people who have a positive opinion of a given politician.
Trump is disliked by 40 percent of people, which means his popularity rating is 3 points above water. An additional 11 percent have a neutral opinion.
The data also shows that Trump ranks as the 10th most popular politician in the country, below Harris and Ocasio-Cortez, but above Buttigieg, Newsom and Booker. He is the third most popular Republican, with California’s former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger ranked No. 1 followed by former President George W. Bush in second.
YouGov’s polling data for Trump aligns closely with Gallup, which had Trump’s approval rating at 44 percent as of April. The average for Trump’ second term thus far, according to Gallup, is 45 percent.
JD Vance’s Popularity
The vice president is less popular than the president, according to YouGov. Just 39 percent of people have a positive view of Vance compared to 42 percent who dislike him—meaning his popularity is negative 3 points. An additional 14 percent have a neutral view.
Although Vance ranks as the 4th most popular Republican, he is only the 17th most popular politician overall. That places him below all the leading potential 2028 Democratic contenders except for Booker.
Kamala Harris’ Popularity
The former vice president is significantly more popular than Trump and Vance, with a popularity rating double-digits above water. Harris is popular with 55 percent of respondents, compared to 31 percent who dislike her—giving her a positive rating of 24 points. An additional 13 percent have a neutral view.
Notably, Harris is the third most popular Democratic politician—after former Presidents Jimmy Carter, who died last year, and Barack Obama, respectively. Overall, she is the 4th most popular U.S. politician, with Carter coming at No. 1, followed by Obama and then Schwarzenegger in third.
Pete Buttigieg’s Popularity
Buttigieg’s popularity rating is significantly above water, although the percentage of people who have a positive view of the former Biden administration official is slightly lower than for Trump, while higher than Vance.
According to YouGov, Buttigieg popularity stands at 41 percent. Meanwhile, just 21 percent say they dislike him, giving him a positive rating of 20 points. An additional 16 percent have a neutral view.
Buttigieg ranks as the 14th most popular politician overall, and as the 11th most popular Democrat. Among the potential 2028 Democratic candidates, that places him third after Harris and Ocasio-Cortez, respectively.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s Popularity
The New York progressive is more popular than Trump and Vance. Ocasio-Cortez’s popularity rating stands at 45 percent, while just 24 percent dislike her—meaning her popularity is 21 points above water. An additional 15 percent view her neutrally.
The congresswoman is ranked as the sixth most popular Democrat, and the eight most popular politician overall. This places her second among the leading potential 2028 candidates after Harris.
Gavin Newsom’s Popularity
The California governor’s popularity rating is tied with that of Vance, but below Trump. Thirty-nine percent of people have a positive view of Newsom while 24 percent said they disliked him, which means his rating is above water by 15 points. An additional 19 percent viewed him neutrally.
He ranks 13th among Democrats and 16th among politicians overall. That places him below Trump and one spot above Vance.
Cory Booker’s Popularity
The senator from New Jersey has a popularity rating of 37 percent, while 16 percent said they dislike him. That puts Booker’s popularity below Vance and Trump, although his rating is also positive by 21 percent. A further 14 percent have a neutral view.
Among Democrats, Booker ranks the lowest among the leading potential 2028 contenders, at 16th. He also ranks the lowest among politicians overall, coming in at 20th.
What People Are Saying
President Donald Trump when asked by Fox News in February if he saw Vance as his successor: “No, but he’s very capable. I think you have a lot of very capable people… So far, I think he’s doing a fantastic job. It’s too early, we’re just starting.”
Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez when asked by Fox News about her 2028 plans in April: “This moment isn’t about campaigns, or elections, or about politics. It’s about making sure people are protected, and we’ve got people that are getting locked up for exercising their First Amendment rights. We’re getting 2-year-olds that are getting deported into cells in Honduras. We’re getting people that are about to get kicked off of Medicaid. That, to me, is most important.”
Former Vice President Kamala Harris on the Trump administration last month: “We all know President Trump and his administration, and their allies, are counting on the notion that fear can be contagious. They are counting on the notion that if they make some people afraid, it will have a chilling effect on others. But what they’re overlooking, what they have overlooked is that fear is not the only thing that’s contagious. Courage is contagious, the courage of Americans who are banding together…”
What Happens Next?
Americans’ views of the potential 2028 contenders are expected to shift substantially in the coming months as years. As of now, none have announced an intention to run, and voters will likely take a more serious look at candidates once they launch campaigns.
The post How Leading 2028 Democrats’ Popularity Compares to Trump and JD Vance appeared first on Newsweek.
