Are the Nuggets (4) on the verge of a massive second-round upset of the NBA Finals favorites?
Or will oddsmakers’ faith in MVP favorite Shai-Gilgeous Alexander and the Thunder (1) be rewarded in Game 4 of the Western Conference Semifinals and beyond?
That’s the biggest question in the West right now, as Minnesota appears well on its way to another appearance in the conference finals.
In OKC vs. Denver, the Nuggets won Games 1 and 3 as Denver’s championship pedigree made the difference in crunch time.
But in Game 2, OKC forced eight first-half turnovers by the Nuggets and shot nearly 60 percent in the first half to jump out to an 87-56 lead at the break and cruise to a 149-106 win.
Thunder vs. Nuggets Game 4 Betting Odds
How to Watch Thunder vs. Nuggets Game 4
- Tipoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Channel: ABC
Thunder vs. Nuggets Series Winner Odds (as of May 11)
- DraftKings: OKC -210; DEN +175
- FanDuel: OKC -240; DEN +198
Thunder vs. Nuggets Game 4 Player Props
Jamal Murray Over 6.5 Assists (+134 at FanDuel) — 1 unit
Murray is coming off his second-best game of this postseason, behind only his 43-point outburst in Game 5 of Nuggets-Clippers in the first round.
In Game 3 of Thunder-Nuggets on Friday night, Aaron Gordon hit another huge shot and Michael Porter Jr. came through with 21 points, but it was Murray (27 points, 8 assists) who carried the Nuggets down the stretch amid a rough shooting night by Jokic.
Murray made every play his team needed him to in crunch time. He had 7 points and 1 assist in the fourth quarter, then scored or assisted three of the Nuggets’ five buckets in their dominant 11-2 finish in overtime.
He is a great bet to record 7 assists or more today based on not only his 8-assist night in Game 3, but the fact that he finished with that many despite an 8-for-25 (0-for-10 3PT) shooting night by Jokic, his partner in Denver’s lethal two-man game.
Murray could have (and should have, with just an average shooting night by Jokic) finished with far more than his eight assists, as he had 21 (!) potential assists, according to NBA.com.
As long as Denver avoids getting blown out, I like Murray — who has piled up a solid 15 assists through three games of this series on a staggering 42 potential assists (with at least eight potentials in all three games) — to flirt with double-digit assists.
Thunder vs. Nuggets Game 4 Pick, Best Bets
The Thunder are always a threat to break a game open at some point thanks to their depth. Their extra gear was on display throughout the regular season, their first-round battle with Memphis and Game 2 of this series.
But through three games, Denver looks like the much better team where playoff games are won: in late-game, halfcourt situations.
It’s also hard to overstate how impressive it is (and concerning for the Thunder) that the 2023 NBA champs are up 2-1 despite Jokic’s struggles.
The three-time MVP has turned it over 21 times in three games. And after a 42-point, 22-rebound night in Game 1, he’s shot just 14-for-41 from the floor (2-for-14 from 3) over the last two games.
A lot of that has to do with OKC’s defense. Still, we shouldn’t expect Jokic to continue to struggle the way he did in Games 2 and 3 against a team he bullied in four regular-season meetings as a scorer, passer and rebounder.
If you expect another close game this afternoon, the Nuggets offer a ton of value at longer than 2-to-1 to win this game. At the same time, fatigue is a real concern for Denver today on a short turnaround following Friday’s overtime win.
With that in mind, Game 4 will be either a comfortable win by the Thunder or another close victory by the Nuggets.
I won’t recommend making two contradictory bets, but I will say that I don’t blame anyone for taking Oklahoma City on an alt spread like -11.5 (+179 at DK).
Personally, though, I’m going with a bounceback game by Jokic and another tight win by the underdogs at home, because I trust Jokic, Murray, Gordon and Porter Jr. much more than OKC’s young stars with the game on the line.
Thunder vs. Nuggets Game 4 Best Bets:
- Nuggets moneyline (+220 at bet365) — 0.5 units
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