Big deal
President Trump can finally point to a trade deal with a major ally, Britain. But now comes the tricky part: Can he strike similar agreements with other countries?
More crucially, what will his administration gain from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s talks with Chinese counterparts scheduled for this weekend in Geneva?
The White House will enter the meetings under enormous pressure. The S&P 500 has rallied more than 13 percent over the past month on investor hopes that Trump will dial back his protectionist agenda, as companies warn that the trade war will eat into profits and force them to raise prices.
Trump sought to spin the deal with Britain as a turning point. “You better go out and buy stock now,” he said on Thursday at a news briefing. The two countries agreed to bolster business ties. One example: IAG, the parent company of British Airways, said it would order new long-haul aircraft, including 32 from Boeing. (The Times breaks down the rest here.)
But Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick sounded less bullish, saying of negotiations with Japan and South Korea — which are widely seen as countries the U.S. is likeliest to reach accords with next — “these are not going to be fast deals.” And Bessent has similarly warned that a full-fledged China deal could take years to pull off.
Keep in mind these caveats about the British accord: It’s a framework agreement that’s light on details, is far from finalized and has been in the works since Trump’s first term.
There are big questions about what Trump could get from China. The administration is weighing serious concessions that could see tariffs reduced to below 60 percent, from 145 percent, according to Bloomberg. The White House denied the Bloomberg report, and Trump on Friday suggested he still wants to play hardball, posting on Truth Social, “80% Tariff on China seems right! Up to Scott B.”
Still, the outcome could reveal how much negotiating power the White House has. Whatever the Trump team offers, would it be enough to get Beijing to ease up on tariffs on U.S. imports? And would China unblock the flow of critical minerals to U.S. companies?
Fallout from the trade fight has been swift. Beijing on Friday released data showing shipments to the U.S. plunged last month by 21 percent on an annualized basis — but jumped by the same percentage to Southeast Asian countries, suggesting a remapping of trade lines. “This is an early signal that something is going on in terms of a front-loading of the supply chain,” Raymond Yeung, the chief economist for greater China for ANZ, told The Times.
In the U.S., the tensions are likely to keep the Fed’s interest-rate policy on hold until the economic volatility subsides and clarity on growth, inflation and jobs returns. For negotiators this weekend, the calculation may come down to one question: Is a breakthrough possible in which somewhat normalized trade resumes between the two countries?
HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
President Trump pushes to raise taxes for the rich. He has asked Speaker Mike Johnson to create an income bracket for those making more than $2.5 million a year, taxing income above that at a rate of 39.6 percent, The Times reports. Such a move would roll back a cut included in the 2017 tax law that Trump enacted and goes against Republicans’ favoring more cuts, but reflect lawmakers’ struggles to raise money to fund other cuts.
Trump names Jeanine Pirro as the interim U.S. attorney for Washington. The appointment of the Fox News host — which will most likely face legal challenges — came after key Republican senators opposed an effort to install Ed Martin permanently in the role. The U.S. attorney for Washington is a high-profile position; as interim U.S. attorney, Martin pledged to prosecute anyone who sought to impede Elon Musk’s government cost-cutting work.
A first-of-its-kind crypto bill stalls in the Senate. Democrats blocked the GENIUS Act, which would have introduced regulation for so-called stablecoins, over concerns that it could bolster the Trump family’s digital currency ventures. (Two Republicans, Josh Hawley of Missouri and Rand Paul of Kentucky, also voted not to advance the bill.) The crypto industry had lobbied hard for the measure as it sees a chance to make gains under the Trump administration.
An investor with ties to Elon Musk accuses Brookfield Asset Management of fraud. Josh Raffaelli, a former Brookfield employee, sued the asset management giant for mistreating investors in his funds by improperly limiting how much money he could invest in Musk’s xAI as it sought to make up for shortfalls elsewhere. A spokeswoman for Brookfield denied the accusations.
dealbook series: how tariffs are affecting U.S. business
“The kicker is this is all so unnecessary!”
We asked DealBook readers how tariffs have affected their companies. Today, we’re featuring a response from Joy Harlor, an owner of Le Petit Triangle, a French cafe in Cleveland that she says employs 16 people and generates about $1 million in annual sales.
She writes:
We have weathered the 2008 recession, raising a family, the pandemic and now we are facing Trump’s tariff war.
While the tariffs haven’t yet landed on an actual invoice, the notion that they are coming slowed our business in April. I’m expecting a 10 percent to 12 percent drop in revenue. Guests are still coming in the door, but the check average is lower. I can see the occasional diner is more cautious about their expenses.
We were already dealing with inflation. Our menu prices have risen 15 to 20 percent since the pandemic. If I was smart, the prices would be higher, but I am trying to hold the line and be that everyday cafe. We have also added the 3 percent credit card fee, which I resisted for a long time. I think back to five years ago, when a case of eggs (15 dozen) was $35.00. This year we have paid $150.00.
All of our cheeses are imported and are already so expensive. It has been difficult to get some cheeses as shipping containers are taking longer to arrive because of the tariffs. And let’s not even talk about Nutella! Is it a nut spread or a chocolate spread? The tariff depends on how it’s defined.
Seafood is also an issue. We normally source a lot of our white fish from Canada. Our seafood supplier told us to expect tariffs to raise fish prices by 30 percent. Wholesale fresh cod varies in price weekly, but let’s say it’s $12 a pound. The new price with tariffs will be $16 a pound.
I’m currently watching invoices, shopping new places, looking at alternative vendors and planning special dining events to increase revenue. But it’s difficult to find replacement sources domestically since we’re replicating a European cafe. That’s our appeal.
The kicker is this is all so unnecessary!
DEALBOOK WANTS TO HEAR FROM YOU
We’d like to know how the tariffs are affecting your business. Have you changed suppliers? Negotiated lower prices? Paused investments or hiring? Made plans to move manufacturing to the U.S.? Or have the tariffs helped your business? Please let us know what you’re doing.
“The idea that I could write some set of goals that somebody would either honestly try to interpret or misinterpret 50 years from now — that’s kind of silly. And we’re not running out of rich people.”
— Bill Gates, in an interview with The New York Times Magazine, announcing that The Gates Foundation would be closing permanently on Dec. 31, 2045. Gates also criticized Elon Musk’s push as part of his government work to cut foreign aid: “The world’s richest man has been involved in the deaths of the world’s poorest children.”
What Leo XIV means for donors
Many Vatican watchers never thought they’d see the day when an American was elected pope. And then Leo XIV appeared on the balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica.
In hindsight, the elevation of Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost, who was born in Chicago, makes a lot of sense — as much for his ability to energize the vital American donor base as for his spiritual leadership. (Never mind that in his first address on Thursday, he didn’t mention the United States, or say a word in English.)
Why it matters: Americans may not be going to Mass in droves anymore, but they are a powerhouse when it comes to donations.
And the new pope is seen as a steady hand who can continue the accounting overhauls begun under his predecessor. Francis appointed the 69-year-old in 2023 to a top Vatican post that gave him a say in the future direction of the church. “He checked all the boxes,” the veteran Vatican analyst John Allen told The Times.
Before the conclave, several donor groups told DealBook that they were anxious about the succession vote, and that they were hoping for fiscal continuity, and that a newcomer wouldn’t undo Francis’ efforts of bringing more transparency to the Vatican’s operations. (Some experts also predicted to DealBook that a candidate with a strong business vision could become a strong papal candidate.)
The Vatican’s finances are a mess. While Francis ordered more robust internal audits, the papacy’s deficit still ballooned over the past decade, with its pension fund facing liabilities of around 2 billion euros ($2.25 billion), according to The Wall Street Journal.
In Francis’ final days, he sought to build greater ties with donors. In February, while he was recovering from pneumonia, a high-level committee was created to raise money for the Curia, the Vatican’s governing hierarchy, to shore up its budget shortfalls.
Francis’ bet was that donors would be as keen to fund church bureaucracy as they would many of the far-flung missions and social causes around the world.
Politics are worth watching. U.S. Catholics tend to lean more Republican, and they had overwhelmingly positive view of Francis — even though he clashed with President Trump over issues like immigration.
It will be worth watching how they regard the new pope: In February, a social media account under Prevost’s name expressed criticism of Vice President JD Vance, sharing an article that called the vice president’s interpretation of Christian doctrine “wrong.”
THE SPEED READ
Deals
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Oil giants including Shell, Chevron and Exxon Mobil have reportedly studied the math on potential takeover bids for some or all of the embattled BP. (FT)
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Shares in Aspen Insurance, which is backed by Apollo, jumped 10.8 percent in their debut on Thursday. (Reuters)
Politics, policy and regulation
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Alex Mashinsky, the founder of the bankrupt crypto lending platform Celsius Network, was sentenced to 12 years in prison after pleading guilty to fraud in connection with his start-up’s collapse. (WSJ)
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Brian Ballard began the second Trump administration as perhaps the most-connected lobbyist to Trumpworld. Now, he’s a pariah. (Politico)
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The law firm Cadwalader is reportedly seeing an exodus after reaching a settlement with President Trump. Separately, here’s why Harvard leaders worry their fight with the president could leave lasting damage to the university. (WSJ, NYT)
Best of the rest
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Why Curtis Yarvin, who is seen as an intellectual inspiration for Elon Musk’s cost-cutting initiative, now disdains the effort. (WaPo)
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Scientists say they’ve created an A.I. tool that can analyze people’s faces to help determine their biological ages — and, perhaps eventually, their medical care. (NYT)
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Inside the enduring appeal of The New York Post. (New Yorker)
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“Boy Accidentally Orders 70,000 Lollipops on Amazon. Panic Ensues.” (NYT)
We’d like your feedback! Please email thoughts and suggestions to [email protected].
Andrew Ross Sorkin is a columnist and the founder of DealBook, the flagship business and policy newsletter at The Times and an annual conference.
Ravi Mattu is the managing editor of DealBook, based in London. He joined The New York Times in 2022 from the Financial Times, where he held a number of senior roles in Hong Kong and London.
Bernhard Warner is a senior editor for DealBook, a newsletter from The Times, covering business trends, the economy and the markets.
Sarah Kessler is an editor for the DealBook newsletter and writes features on business and how workplaces are changing.
Michael J. de la Merced has covered global business and finance news for The Times since 2006.
Lauren Hirsch covers Wall Street for The Times, including M&A, executive changes, board strife and policy moves affecting business.
Edmund Lee covers the media industry as it grapples with changes from Silicon Valley. Before joining The Times he was the managing editor at Vox Media’s Recode.
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