It is very unlikely that the U.S. will succeed in its efforts to secure a ceasefire deal for Ukraine by the end of the year, a former Ukrainian prime minister said.
There is a roughly 10 percent chance a ceasefire deal will be inked in 2025, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, who had two terms as Ukraine’s prime minister between 2014 and 2016, told Newsweek on Wednesday.
President Donald Trump, who pledged to end the war in Ukraine in just 24 hours, has struggled to halt Europe’s largest land conflict since World War II.
The White House, while pursuing thawing relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin, has become increasingly irritated with Moscow after Russian officials in March refused to agree to a U.S.-brokered, 30-day full ceasefire agreement that Ukraine has already signed.
Despite multiple visits to Russia by Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, the Kremlin agreed to only a partial ceasefire covering the Black Sea once some sanctions are lifted, which has not yet happened.
Russia launched several major air strikes on Ukraine in recent weeks, including firing a combination of missiles and drones at the Ukrainian capital overnight into the morning of April 24. Kyiv officials said at least 13 people were killed.
Trump then met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at Pope Francis‘ funeral before posting to social media: “There was no reason for Putin to be shooting missiles into civilian areas, cities and towns, over the last few days. It makes me think that maybe he doesn’t want to stop the war.”
Hopes that the U.S. can quickly secure a deal are slipping away, and the administration has openly said it is prepared to walk away from its efforts to run truce talks.
Yatsenyuk said he was “deeply concerned” that the U.S. could throw in the towel with peace talks, which would likely be a “victory” for Russia.
Russia unilaterally declared two brief ceasefire periods in recent weeks, including a 30-hour pause of “all military activity” over Easter.
The Kremlin later said it would institute a ceasefire between midnight Moscow time on May 8 and midnight on May 11 to observe the 80th anniversary of the Great Patriotic War. That is the term used by Russia to describe its participation in World War II after it joined the Allies in 1941 and the victory over Nazi Germany in 1945.
Russia has consistently claimed its invasion of Ukraine aimed to “de-Nazify” the country, a pretext widely rejected.
Moscow and Kyiv have accused one another of violating both Russian-declared ceasefires, which Ukraine did not agree to.
Putin is likely hoping to head off any possible Ukrainian attacks on May 9, when Russia hosts major celebrations, Oleksandr Merezkho, the head of Ukraine’s parliamentary foreign affairs committee, previously told Newsweek.
Russia has laid out extensive conditions for its consent to a ceasefire in Ukraine, many of which have been flatly ruled out by Kyiv, including the dismantling of its military, no path toward NATO membership and recognition of Russia’s grip on seized territory.
The Kremlin currently controls about one-fifth of Ukraine, which Kyiv has vowed to reclaim.
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