Tensions between South Asian arch-rivals and have escalated sharply this week as New Delhi launched aerial strikes on targets inside Pakistan and Pakistan-administered .
India’s action was in response to a deadly attack last month on
The attack was claimed by a group calling itself the Kashmir Resistance, which India says is also known as The Resistance Front and is linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), a UN-designated terrorist organization.
New Delhi blamed Islamabad for backing the attack, an allegation Pakistan denies.
An Indian response was widely expected as was under intense public, political and media pressure domestically to retaliate.
Intense pressure to retaliate
Despite the massive pressure, the government took enough time to carefully plan and execute its response, to avoid a debacle as well as uncontrolled escalation, say experts.
The pre-dawn strikes on Wednesday targeted nine sites,
The Indian government said the targets were “terrorist camps” that served as recruitment centers, launchpads and indoctrination centers. It also said the sites housed weapons and training facilities.
“Two of these camps are the headquarters of the two most significant groups, Muridke of the LeT and Bahawalpur of the Jaish-e-Mohammed,” Ajai Sahni, executive director of the Institute for Conflict Management in New Delhi, told DW.
“The others are documented training camps that have been in existence for a long time. Their names keep cropping up again and again when we see the narratives or interrogation reports of terrorists who have come across the border,” the counter terrorsim expert added. “Within the intelligence community internationally these would all be recognized locations.”
Sahni, however, believes that the strikes might not have a “significant deterrent effect.”
“More importantly, I think this may provoke a certain kind of adaptation on the part of these groups… next time, there will be a sense of fear that this could happen again and it could happen without warning. So, there will be an adaptation on the part of these terrorists, that they will locate more carefully, hide their activities, make provisions for shelters, etc.,” he said.
‘Very strong response from India’
Military experts in India say the scale and significance of the operation was unprecedented.
“The scale — sending out strikes on nine different targets or primarily, hopefully, terrorist hubs — is certainly unprecedented in a peacetime scenario,” Admiral Arun Prakash, a former chief of the Indian navy, told DW.
Lt Gen D S Hooda, a former senior commander of the Indian army said, “The fact that you are striking what is considered the heart of Pakistan — the Punjab province — I think it’s a very strong response from India’s side.”
India has divulged no official information on the casualties inflicted or the names of the aircraft and weapons used in the operation.
Following the strikes, New Delhi released a statement saying its actions were “focused, measured and non-escalatory in nature,” stressing that it only hit “terrorist infrastructure” across the border but no civilian, economic or military targets.
By stressing that it’s “non-escalatory,” India is signaling Pakistan that it does not want the situation to spiral, according to Hooda.
“We have tried to avoid collateral damage. So, the messaging is that possibly we do not want to escalate this further,” he said.
Prakash, the former navy chief, echoed this view, pointing out that instead of using ballistic missiles, India only “deployed aircraft-launched guided weapons.”
“India has done everything to convey the message that this is a limited and very calibrated and targeted strike,” he told DW.
He added that the range and accuracy of the weapons was such that the targets could be attacked from a considerable distance without crossing the border with Pakistan.
Both sides continue to exchange fire
Still, New Delhi sent a clear signal to Islamabad by launching these strikes deep into Pakistan and Pakistan-controlled territory, said Sahni.
“This time we’ve got several strikes in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and four strikes in proper Punjab, one strike is at least 100 kilometers (60 miles) into Pakistan, in Bahawalpur. This indicates a ramping up of penalties that India is willing to or able to inflict on Pakistan for acts of terrorism,” he pointed out.
Pakistan, meanwhile, called New Delhi’s actions an
with India saying it targeted a Pakistani air defense system in the city of Lahore in retaliation to Pakistan’s overnight attacks which used “drones and missiles.”
Pakistan, for its part, said the Indian army had fired several drones into the country overnight and into Thursday, while both sides continued to trade heavy artillery fire.
Ball is in Pakistan’s court
The extremely volatile situation, as well as the ever-present risk of miscalculation, has heightened fears that it could snowball into a full-fledged military conflict between the two nuclear-armed neighbors, unless both sides manage to find off-ramps to climb down and avert an escalatory spiral.
From a military standpoint, India has put the ball in Pakistan’s court. , said Anil Golani, retired air vice marshal and the head of New Delhi-based Centre for Air Power Studies (CAPS).
“The onus of escalation is now on Pakistan and the international opinion is in favor of India. So it’s up to them what they do. I am quite sure they would also retaliate because they also have a domestic constituency to cater to,” he told DW.
“And if it does happen, then India has already displayed its will, and the retribution is going to be even stronger this time around.”
Edited by: Srinivas Mazumdaru
The post India-Pakistan tensions trigger fears of escalatory spiral appeared first on Deutsche Welle.
