Three years ago, Republicans saw an opportunity. They anticipated a “red wave” and thought they could knock down Democratic rising star Raphael Warnock in purple Georgia. Then, Donald Trump got involved, encouraging football legend Herschel Walker to run for the Senate seat. Republicans had reservations, though—and for good reason, it turned out. Walker’s candidacy was a scandal-ridden disaster; Warnock won out, giving Democrats a two-seat Senate majority and a misplaced sense of confidence.
Things have changed since then, of course. Trump surged back into power, putting democracy on its heels and making a mockery of Democrats’ previous optimism. And Republicans, enjoying a governing trifecta in Washington, have spent the past six months dancing on various third rails of American politics. But, in Georgia, a state seen as key to their effort to expand their upper chamber majority, some in the GOP are worried they could find themselves reliving their Walker nightmare.
They’d been hoping that Brian Kemp, Georgia’s governor, would mount a challenge to Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff. He’s been a popular leader in the state—a Trump supporter who has defied Trump enough to earn himself a derogatory nickname by the president (“Little Brian Kemp”) and some credibility with more moderate figures. But Kemp declined a Senate run, opening the Republican field and, potentially, the door to a Marjorie Taylor Greene bid.
Indeed, the MAGA firebrand has said she is weighing a Senate campaign, which could excite the most fervent parts of Trump’s base but also comes with the vulnerabilities that weighed down Walker. “She can win a primary,” Georgia GOP strategist Brian Robinson told NBC News. “She cannot win a general [election] in Georgia.”
Greene has been a defining figure of this political moment: a hardcore Trump loyalist with a penchant for conspiracy theories and outrageous antics. But she is in Congress not because her act has broad appeal, but because she hails from a deep red district where having an R next to your name is probably enough to get you elected. Winning statewide would be different than winning in the 14th district, the most conservative in the state. “It’s very difficult to apply a formula for a very gerrymandered, very conservative congressional district into a statewide election with as much diversity as Georgia has,” as Republican Senator Kevin Cramer of South Dakota told The Hill. “If I was to put my political science hat on and look at all the criteria, she wouldn’t be high on my list of recruits.”
Democrats—and whatever passes for “establishment Republicans” these days—would be wise not to discount Greene or the threat she poses. Walker was such a trainwreck that his campaign staff didn’t trust him, but he lost by fewer than three points in a run-off. Anyone who thinks Greene—running as a sitting member of Congress in a political moment like this—couldn’t win does so at their own peril. Georgia may be purple, with two Democratic senators. But it’s also a state that Trump won in 2024 despite facing racketeering charges over his effort to overturn its 2020 results.
Then again, Trump’s acolytes have never quite been able to defy the political laws of gravity the way he has. Voters have fallen for the bully. But his toadies? Not so much. And if recent history were to repeat itself for Republicans in Georgia, they’d have only themselves to blame.
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