The government is seeking a new agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran over the latter’s nuclear program. The two have been holding talks since mid-April but the , which was due to take place this weekend in Rome, was postponed. During the ongoing talks, had increased the pressure on Iran, threatening to impose “secondary sanctions” on importers of Iranian oil.
For its part, which has come under international pressure because of its nuclear program, has been will lead to the easing of sanctions.
At the same time, the internal rift between the government and the population has grown wider than ever in the wake of the “Woman, Life, Freedom” movement that was and its suppression.
An organized opposition that could offer an alternative to the current rulers has failed to materialize. who would be in a position to mobilize are systematically persecuted, harassed and imprisoned. Many have left the country.
‘The fight against this regime began the day it took power’
“The fight against this regime began the day it took power after the 1979 revolution and will continue , regardless of their outcome,” says Iraj Mesdaghi in an interview with DW. The human rights activist and former political prisoner has lived in exile in the Swedish capital, Stockholm, since 1994.
In his opinion, neither an agreement like the one reached in 2015 nor a military attack on the country’s would be in the interests of the population. “Selective isolated attacks that did not lead to the collapse of the regime would be a ,” he said, because the people of Iran would have “to bear both the regime and the losses caused by the attack.”
Shows of solidarity with the Iranian people by Western politicians criticizing the massive human rights violations in Iran have raised the hopes of some critics of the current Iranian leadership that there could be a regime change through foreign intervention, particularly with US support.
Trump has threatened to bomb Iran’s if the current negotiations fail, but he has rejected a regime change.
‘Encourage the people to strike the final blow’
Some diaspora Iranians, such as supporters of Reza Pahlavi, the son of the last shah of Iran, who left the country before the Islamic Revolution of 1979, are trying to offer alternatives.
They believe that Pahlavi could play a key role in uniting secular forces in Iran against the Islamic Republic, and lead an interim government as the country transitioned to a democratic order.
Hamed Sheibani Rad from the New Iran Party, which was founded in the diaspora, is one of these supporters. He believes it is “very likely” that the negotiations will fail and end without an agreement. In this case, a military confrontation can be expected, he thinks.
“The task of the opposition in this case would be to take advantage of the regime’s double weakness and encourage the people to strike the final blow,” he told DW. “Foreign forces must be convinced that the way to finally liberate the world from the evil of the Islamic Republic is to overthrow the regime, in conjunction with the Iranian people.”
Change has to come from within, says historian
However, Arash Azizi, a historian and lecturer at Clemson University in South Carolina, US, warns that a military invasion, such as those in and , would fail in Iran. He says that change has to come from within, if there are to be viable prospects for the future.
He told DW that Iran was now at a crossroads between war and negotiations and said a diplomatic rapprochement would be “in line with Iran’s national interests.”
“Any process that leads to the and an economic opening up for the population in Iran, while at the same time reducing the belligerent actions of the political system in the region, is positive,” he said.
The opening up of the political and economic space would be good news and could create more freedom for pro-democratic activities, he added, skeptical about the amount of influence that Iranians in the diaspora could exert. “Parts of the Iranian opposition outside of the country, which are depending on the actions of other states such as the US, will lose significance with the change of policy in Washington.”
This article was translated from German.
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