Russia is throwing troops into operations but its advances are slowing amid high losses, however Vladimir Putin is ignoring these diminishing returns as he looks for battlefield gains to pressure Ukraine in ceasefire talks, says the Institute for the Study of War.
The Washington, D.C. think tank said so far this year, an average 99 Russian troops were being lost for every square kilometer of territory gained—much higher than the 59 casualties per square kilometer from between last September and December.
Newsweek has contacted the Russian defense ministry for comment.
Why it matters
The ISW said the troop numbers Moscow is throwing into attacks show that, regardless of U.S.-led peace talks and President Donald Trump‘s ambition for a peace deal, Putin is still committed to seizing all of Ukraine and undermining NATO.
Although Trump can point to a minerals deal with Ukraine struck this week, the U.S. has warned that it would walk away if peace negotiations did not bear fruit soon.
However, the ISW assessment shows that Kyiv’s forces are effectively fending off Russian attacks and one military expert has told Newsweek that the Ukrainian front line is not about to collapse, thanks in part to Kyiv’s drone capabilities.
What to know
Russia’s front line gains have slowed in 2025 while enduring losses even greater than in the final four months of 2024, according to the ISW’s Friday update.
It calculated that so far this year, citing Ukraine’s figures of personnel losses, Russia had gained 1,627 square kilometers (628 square miles) in Ukraine and Russia’s Kursk oblast where Kyiv staged an incursion last August at a cost 160,600 casualties—or 99 per square kilometer.
By comparison, between September and December 2024, Russian forces gained an estimated 2,949 square kilometers (1,138 square miles) at the cost of 174,935 casualties, or an average of 59 casualties per square kilometer taken.
The think tank said the high numbers reflect how Russia is deploying “low quality” troops to front line units that hindered complex operations to make quick advances. But it also showed Putin wanted to leverage further battlefield, pressure Ukraine in ceasefire and peace negotiations and force Ukraine’s collapse.
This gives the U.S. the opportunity to leverage Russia’s vulnerabilities for a stronger negotiating position against Putin, according to the ISW.
The think tank noted how U.S. Vice President JD Vance‘s comments on Fox News that the war will not end soon suggest the Trump administration is considering stepping back from intensified mediation efforts to end the war.
This week, the Financial Times reported that European and Ukrainian officials feared Trump was on the brink of walking away from peace negotiations and may use minor progress in talks as an “excuse” to say his job is done.
Zev Faintuch, head of research and intelligence at security firm Global Guardian, told Newsweek that the U.S. walking away would hurt Ukraine less than one might expect, at least in the short to medium turn.
He said Ukraine’s front isn’t about to collapse and its domestic drone production and its drone corps have shown that the situation is less desperate in the short-term than it may appear. Kyiv’s European allies will be able to step in with many in-demand munitions and with intelligence sharing, he added.
However, what Ukraine stands to lose are missiles, specifically long-range precision strike and surface-to-air missiles which would make defending the skies of the major cities more difficult and allow Russia to have more efficient supply lines closer to the front, said Faintuch.
What people are saying
Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on Friday: “Russian forces are currently sustaining a higher casualty rate per square kilometer gained than in Fall 2024.”
U.S. Vice President JD Vance told Fox News Friday “It’s not going to end any time soon” and it’s “going to be up to the Russians and Ukrainians now that each side knows what the other’s terms for peace are.”
Zev Faintuch, senior intelligence analyst at security firm Global Guardian: “The Ukrainian front isn’t about to collapse. Ukraine’s indigenous drone production and its drone corps have time and time again shown analysts the situation is less desperate in the short-term than it may appear.”
What happens next
With a deal in Ukraine seemingly no closer, senior U.S. officials remain skeptical Putin has eased his intransigence even if there is a peace deal may resume the war and try to seize more Ukrainian territory, CNN reported.
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