LONDON — Donald Trump’s tougher tone with Vladimir Putin has opened a crack of optimism for the future of Ukraine peace talks — but Britain and France don’t have long to celebrate.
Two events in the last week saw the U.S. president adopt a harder line with the Russian leader, marking a vibe shift for which Ukraine’s European allies are claiming partial credit.
After Trump’s meeting with Ukraine’s Volodomyr Zelenskyy on the sidelines of Pope Francis’s funeral in Rome — the first since their disastrous encounter in the Oval Office — Trump launched a rare broadside against Putin.
He posted, “Vladimir, STOP!” on Truth Social, and later mused that “maybe he doesn’t want to stop the war, he’s just tapping me along.” Then came Wednesday’s signing of a minerals deal with Ukraine, which explicitly refers to “Russia’s full-scale invasion” in a significant hardening of language used by the Trump administration.
In London and Paris, leaders Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron have both been intently focused on trying to get Trump to ease off Zelenskyy and turn some of his ire on Putin, using the argument that Putin is playing Trump for a fool.
The U.S. president’s public swipes at Putin have permitted diplomats in London and Paris the smallest of fist pumps, as their endeavors over the past three months appeared to bear fruit.
One U.K. government official, granted anonymity like others in this piece to speak candidly, said of the minerals deal it was “encouraging to see that framing and we just need to keep up the pressure on Putin, because that’s going to be crucial in the days ahead.”
The U.K. and France now face a nervous wait to see if the U.S. president’s shift in tone can survive his impatience to move on.
London-Paris double act
The U.S. president’s change of tack follows months of careful coordination by Starmer and Macron, both of whom have used their channels to the White House to put across the message that the Russian president cannot be trusted.
British Foreign Secretary David Lammy disclosed Wednesday he has spoken to U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio 13 times this year, with Starmer and Trump speaking “almost” as many times.
Behind the scenes on the U.K. side, National Security Adviser Jonathan Powell, a seasoned negotiator, and Defense Secretary John Healey, seen as another heavyweight, have been key to this drive, aided by U.S. envoy to the U.K. Mark Burnett.
One former U.K. ambassador said Zelenskyy had “clearly managed to affect Trump’s thinking” in Rome, and that the U.K. and France had been consistent in making the point Putin was “disrespecting [Trump] by consistently breaking the ceasefire he claimed to be implementing.”
They claimed this was a particular pressure point because Trump is “squeamish about people being killed — it bothers him.”
A French official chimed that “for the moment, Trump has understood” Putin can’t be trusted. They added: “It’s something that the president [Macron] repeatedly says, and tries to get through to Trump. That’s our strategy right now.”
Steven Pfifer, a senior fellow at U.S.-based think tank the Brookings Institution, said that Trump had had “a blind spot for Putin ignoring U.S. requests” but that his recent statements on social media “seemed to suggest he thought he was being played by Putin.”
“In their conversations, Macron and Starmer have been trying to point that out to Trump,” Pfifer said.
The British government official quoted above suggested the new agreement for U.S. access to Ukraine’s minerals means that America now has “skin in the game” which “adds a level of certainty and security to the Ukrainian cause in the medium to long term.”
What happens next
But if the past week represents a diplomatic breakthrough for the U.K. and France, it is a precarious one.
Orysia Lutsevych, head of the Ukraine Forum at Chatham House, warned that one meeting in the Vatican will not necessarily have “a lasting effect — it had a one-day effect where [Trump] made some good statements, but it requires policy, not just statements on Truth Social.”
The history of the White House’s approach to negotiations has shown how futile` European efforts can be, with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio abandoning a recent summit in London at the last minute and Trump arguing Ukraine should cede Crimea.
Some see this as a growing threat to Starmer’s dogged attempts to act as an honest broker between Ukraine and the U.S.
“While we are better placed to act as a bridge than almost any other country, there is a moment of truth coming,” said the same former ambassador quoted above. “We need to decide if we take a stand against a lousy Trump deal or stand with our European allies.”
For now, Starmer is studiously avoiding the question. Challenged over whether the U.K. could accept the concession of Crimea, the British government has stuck to the line that the conditions of a ceasefire “can only be decided by negotiations with Ukraine.”
Putin has not yet offered a substantive response to overtures from Ukraine and the U.S., with his announcement of a three-day ceasefiregreeted with suspicion by Kyiv and its allies.
The proposed pause in hostilities is to coincide with Russia’s “victory day” on May 9, which ostensibly marks their triumph over Hitler but has become a symbol of Russia’s present-day militaristic state. EU foreign ministers are expected to meet in Lviv, Ukraine, the same day in a show of solidarity with Ukraine, possibly joined by U.K. Foreign Secretary David Lammy.
As time drags on with no movement from Moscow, Trump appears increasingly frustrated with his failure to strike a deal in his first 100 days in office, let alone the first 24 hours he once promised.
Pfifer said: “The question is going to be now: is he prepared to alter course and begin to take a tougher approach towards Russia, or does he just blame both parties and walks away from it?”
Until and unless Trump abandons ship, the U.K. appears locked in to giving him the benefit of the doubt.
Clea Caulcutt reported from Paris.
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