The conflict between the US and de facto government, run by the Iran-backed Houthi militia — designated a terror organization by Washington — is escalating.
On Sunday, a US strike on a migrant detention camp in the Saada governorate . According to the Houthi-run news agency SABA, the death toll was close to 200, with The Associated Press (AP), however, putting that number lower, at around 70
So far, the US Central Command, or CENTCOM, which oversees military operations and forces in the Middle East, stated that “we are currently conducting our battle-damage assessment and inquiry into those claims.”
Meanwhile, CENTCOM for the first time the number of strikes on Houthi targets since the start of the US intervention dubbed “Operation Rough Rider” in mid-March: 800.
“These strikes have killed hundreds of fighters and numerous Houthi leaders, including senior Houthi missile and UAV officials,” Dave Eastburn, the CENTCOM spokesperson, stated on X, formerly Twitter.
Neither names nor evidence were included.
US reports drop in Houthi missile, drone attacks
According to CENTCOM, Houthi ballistic missile launches have dropped by 69%. Additionally, attacks from Houthi one way attack drones have decreased by 55%.
AP has meanwhile reported that the Houthi militia, which officially calls itself Ansar Allah, managed to fend off at least seven US MQ-9 Reaper drones worth in total more than $200 million (€175 million) in the past weeks.
And according to the US newspaper New York Times, the total cost of the current US operation against the Houthis has already surpassed $1 billion(€877 million).
This makes the US fight against the Houthis the costliest ongoing American military operation — and it is unlikely to end anytime soon.
CENTCOM’s spokesperson Eastburn reiterated on Monday that “we will the pressure until the objective is met, which remains the restoration of freedom of navigation and American deterrence in the region.”
According to the SABA news agency, the Houthi-run Ministry of Justice issued a statement the same day asserting what it called Yemen’s legitimate right to defend its sovereignty and citizens under the UN Charter and stressing that targeting civilians was a crime not subject to statutory limitations und UN conventions.
Upscaled air defense
“For military action against the Houthis, MQ-9 Reaper drones are extremely useful as these drones can stay in the air for a very long time and observe everything that is going on underneath, for example, locate mobile missile launchers,” Fabian Hinz, defense and military analyst at the British think tank International Institute for Strategic Studies, told DW.
However, the disadvantage of these drones is their lack of speed. “The American MQ9 Reaper drones are relatively slow, as they were originally developed to be used in missions such as Afghanistan or Mali, where armed groups have no real air defense systems available,” he said.
, however, possess two air defense systems. “They captured some older air defense systems from the Yemeni army when they took power in the country in 2015,” Hinz said, adding that “at the same time, of course, they also receive supplies from Iran, including the “358” missile system [surface-to-air missiles] that was specially developed by the Iranians to shoot down this class of MQ-9 Reaper drones.”
Hinz wouldn’t rule out a possible recent change in either. “Tehran could provide better quality systems, new systems, or simply more systems,” he told DW. “Or the Houthis have simply become better at detection tactics,” he said.
According to the UK-based organization Conflict Armament Research, or CAR, which documents weapons at the point of use and tracks their sources back through the chains of supply, there have been a number of recent seizures of shipments bound for the Houthis.
“The Houthis are still absolutely reliant on for supply of more strategic systems like the missile systems that they use to attack commercial shipping vessels or countries further afield like Israel,” Taimur Khan, CAR’s head of regional operations in the Gulf, told DW.
“However, the Houthis have also made a concerted effort to solidify alternative or diversified supply chains to the commercial market in China, where they source and procure commercially available dual-use items that can be incorporated into drones and missiles domestically,” he said.
“This is a significant dynamic,” Khan added.
Earlier in March, a CAR report had already stated that the Houthis tried to obtain hydrogen fuel cells from unspecified Chinese suppliers to increase the range and payloads of their drones.
“They are experimenting and trying to evolve their drone capabilities,” Khan confirms.
Earlier in April, a US State Department spokesperson also said that a Chinese satellite company has been aiding Houthi attacks on US interests. In their view, this is a clear sign that Beijing and Moscow show increased support for the Houthis.
Changed risk calculation
Meanwhile, the Houthis continue to attack and launch long-range missile and drone attacks on Israel in their ongoing declared bid to in Gaza.
US attacks on the Houthis have become “more aggressive” in parallel, Fabian Hinz told DW.
“Military deployments base on a risk calculation in which it is weighed up whether it is worth sending a certain system into a certain area,” he explained.
In his view, it is most likely that the US changed this risk calculation under political pressure, such as his reinstatement of the Houthis as a foreign terrorist organization in January, or when his warning to Iran in March not to supply the Houthis with arms didn’t show any results.
However, according to several observers DW spoke to since the beginning of the latest US operation in Yemen, it is highly unlikely that the Houthis, who are well-supplied and war-hardened after years of a civil war against the Yemeni government that with a ceasefire.
Meanwhile, the civilian population is of the conflict. According to the SABA news agency, US strikes have killed hundreds of civilians since mid-March. Also, a large part of international aid has come to a halt following the designation of the Houthis as a foreign terrorist organization in January. Furthermore, the UN stopped in February after more UN employees were kidnapped by the Houthis.
Despite all of this, the number of aspiring migrants who arrive in Yemen by boat from the Horn of Africa is on the rise. According to the International Organization of Migration, 28,306 new arrivals were recorded in January and February, representing a 713% increase compared to the same period last year (3,481). The majority of new arrivals come from Ethiopia, which explains the high number of Ethiopians killed in the US strike on Yemen’s migrant detention camp late Sunday.
Edited by: Jess Smee
The post Yemen: US fighting costly battle against the Houthis appeared first on Deutsche Welle.
