The four horsemen of Big Tech — Apple, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft — all report earnings this week, and the stakes couldn’t be higher.
Together these companies command more than $9 trillion in market capitalization. That means they also exert outsize influence across the market, together making up roughly 19% of the S&P 500, more than 30% of the Nasdaq 100, and almost 12% of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (despite Meta not even being included in the latter). Their results steer the entire ship, not just tech.
And recent months haven’t exactly been smooth sailing. Rising tariffs, slumping hardware sales, weakening consumer confidence, and lingering uncertainty over AI investments are all helping draw even more attention this earnings cycle.
Here’s what to watch.
Bill Gates’ baby reports fiscal Q3 results Wednesday after the bell, with investors looking for evidence that its AI momentum and cloud strength can withstand the macro turbulence and uncertainty brought on by President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Wall Street expects earnings per share of about $3.22 on revenue of $68.4 billion, which would mark year-over-year gains of 8.8% and 10.6%, respectively.
Azure cloud growth — expected around 30%, down from 40% last quarter — will be a focal point, especially as last quarter’s deceleration disappointed even amid strong overall results. Microsoft blamed supply constraints at its data centers, which are also being tasked with training and running AI workloads. Copilot monetization is another wild card: Investors want to know whether Microsoft’s AI tools are translating into real enterprise spending or are still stuck in the pilot phase.
Despite — or possibly because of – the recent selloff in tech stocks, Microsoft is seen as relatively “derisked.” Jefferies notes the stock trades at about 24 times expected 2026 earnings, and Wedbush has called software “the safety blanket in this storm.” Still, with 55% of revenue tied to enterprise and PC segments, areas that face budget pressure across the board, even a modest miss or cautious guidance could sink shares — at least in the short term.
Meta Platforms, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, is also set to report its first-quarter earnings after the bell on Wednesday. Analysts are projecting EPS of about $5.22 on revenue of $41.35 billion, marking year-over-year increases of 11% and 13%.
Advertising continues to be Meta’s primary driver, accounting for an eye-watering 96% of its total revenue. Hightower’s Chief Investment Strategist, Stephanie Link, highlighted the company’s strong fundamentals. She noted expectations of “20% total return growth and 40% operating margins,” and emphasized that with the stock down 6% so far this year and now trading at about 17 times 2026 earnings estimates, it may present a compelling value proposition. Wedbush analysts likewise remain optimistic about Meta’s prospects, citing robust digital ad spending and the company’s strategic investments in AI as key drivers of future growth.
Speaking of AI, on Tuesday Meta launched a standalone AI assistant app powered by its Llama 4 model, aiming to compete directly with offerings from OpenAI and Google (GOOGL). This move signals Meta’s plans to integrate AI across its platforms and enhance user engagement.
But ongoing regulatory challenges also cloud the picture. In the U.S., the Federal Trade Commission has initiated an antitrust trial seeking to force the divestiture of Instagram or WhatsApp, alleging anti-competitive practices. Overseas, the European Union recently fined Meta €200 million (about $227 million) for violations of the Digital Markets Act, a decision the company plans to appeal.
Amazon reports earnings after the bell Thursday, and expectations are high — but political tensions and stock underperformance could complicate the picture. Wall Street is looking for EPS of $1.35, up 38% year-over-year, on $142.5 billion in revenue. The headline figure to watch is operating margin, especially in North America, where Amazon posted a record 4.4% last quarter. That momentum was powered by logistics efficiencies, increasing Prime engagement, and disciplined retail operations.
As always, cloud will also be key. Amazon Web Services continues to drive (if not outright determine) the company’s overall profitability even as its growth rate moderates. Wedbush analysts say they expect strong cloud numbers and AI-fueled demand to drive upside, noting both Amazon and Microsoft are poised to hit “whisper expectations” on guidance. CEO Andy Jassy recently called Amazon “the world’s largest startup,” underscoring how the company sees itself: scrappy, fast-moving, and still evolving across AI, cloud, and retail logistics.
Of course, Amazon’s real-world scale now puts it squarely in the political crosshairs. Trump’s new tariffs on imported goods could squeeze margins, and on Tuesday, Amazon made headlines for reportedly planning to display tariff costs at checkout — at least on its Haul site. The gesture suggests how visible and sensitive the costs of global trade have become.
The business is still humming, but with shares down 15% year-to-date, Amazon needs more than a solid quarter — it needs a clear, confident signal that its long-term trajectory remains intact.
Alongside Amazon, Apple will report earnings Thursday after the bell, and it may be the most closely scrutinized Big Tech release of the week.
Wall Street expects Q1 EPS of $1.62, up 5.7% year-over-year, on revenue of around $90 billion, down about $5 billion from the year-ago quarter. Meanwhile investor sentiment is fragile. Despite a string of earnings beats, Apple stock is down 16% year to date — largely due to iPhone sales that continue to soften, especially in China, where competition from Huawei and regulatory friction are mounting.
Services revenue — including iCloud, Apple Music, App Store fees, and other recurring streams — remains the bright spot, and analysts expect it to post double-digit growth. But with services accounting for only about one fourth of overall revenue, it’s likely not enough to offset sluggish hardware sales, which account for more than half of overall revenue.
AI is the wild card. Apple has teased generative AI features coming in iOS 18, and investors will be listening closely for hints from CEO Tim Cook ahead of June’s WWDC. But tariff uncertainty also looms and many analysts expect that Apple won’t offer full-year guidance amid so much unpredictability.
It’s a tricky balance for a $3 trillion company under pressure to prove it still has breakout potential.
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